By Sanu V. George

Thiruvananthapuram, Apr 2 (IANS): Even though the upcoming Lok Sabha polls are still several months away, if statistics and figures are analysed, at the moment it can be said that the Kerala BJP unit is unlikely to play even spoilsport to the chances of the traditional political fronts in the state.

The state has 20 Lok Sabha seats and in the 2019 parliamentary polls, the Kerala BJP led NDA finished a distant third in 19 seats and managed a mere 15.64 per cent of the votes, while the Congress led UDF which won 19 seats secured 47.48 per cent. The then ruling CPI-M led Left got 36.29 per cent votes and just one seat.

Another indicative figure that it could be a tough nut to crack for the BJP is that in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls in the 140 assembly segments, the BJP led in just one seat and came second in just seven seats.

Incidentally the BJP in Kerala was unable to retain its only seat in 2021 which it won for the first time in the history of the party in the 2016 assembly polls, when it lost the Nemom assembly seat.

In the 2021 assembly polls, the BJP vote share went down by 2.60 per cent to touch 12.36 per cent compared to the 2016 polls.

The results of all recent poll battles go totally against the BJP, although both the state and the national leadership are trying to put up a brave face and launch the first-round campaign. The state leadership has marked Thiruvananthapuram, Thrissur, Attingal and Pathanamthitta as the seats where the party could make an impact.

Poll pundits predict that it's a tough one for the BJP. It finished in the second place only in the Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha seat. In the others where it had ‘hopes', the margin between its third place behind the Left candidate and the winning Congress candidate, was around one lakh votes. Hence, even if a miracle happens it is very unlikely that it will be able to open its account.