Daijiworld Media Network - Tehran
Tehran, Aug 8: Iran is betting that prolonged control over the Strait of Hormuz will give it enough leverage to force US President Donald Trump to accept Tehran's terms, even as the strategy carries significant economic and political risks for the Islamic Republic.
The crucial waterway, located between Iran and Oman, has become the centre of the escalating conflict, with Iran seeking to use its ability to restrict shipping as a strategic tool against the United States and its regional allies.
The strait previously carried around one-fifth of the world's traded oil and gas, making any prolonged disruption a major threat to global energy supplies and prices.
Iranian leaders believe time may be on their side. They are aware of pressure on US stockpiles of key weapons, including advanced missile interceptors, as well as the political cost of the conflict in the United States ahead of congressional elections in November.
Tehran also believes that reopening the waterway by force could prove costly for Washington and potentially require the deployment of American ground troops. Iran's Houthi allies in Yemen could further widen the conflict and disrupt another major international trade route.
By maintaining pressure on the strait, Iranian leaders believe Trump could eventually be left with little choice but to negotiate.
However, Iran's strategy comes with considerable risks. Trump has pointed to US strikes that have severely damaged Iran's leadership, navy and air force. While he has alternated between threatening further escalation and suggesting that negotiations are progressing, Washington's blockade has also severely damaged Iran's economy.
Iran has indicated that it is close to reaching an arrangement with Oman to manage the Strait of Hormuz. Any such agreement, however, would reportedly be conditional on the United States lifting its blockade, meaning Trump would ultimately have to approve it even if Washington and Tehran do not negotiate directly.
It remains unclear whether Iran would be permitted to charge fees under such an arrangement. Analysts say formal recognition of Iranian control over the waterway would nevertheless represent a major strategic victory for Tehran and a setback for Washington.
Abdolreza Davari, an analyst who previously advised former Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, said Iran's primary objective was not revenue from the strait but recognition of its authority over the strategically vital waterway.
“More than revenue from the strait, Iran wants to confirm its management and sovereignty over the strait,” he said.
Such an arrangement could also challenge the longstanding international principle of freedom of navigation and establish a potentially troubling precedent for other strategic maritime chokepoints.
China, which purchases Iranian oil and maintains influence in Tehran, said as recently as May that normal and safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz should be restored.
Iranian officials have repeatedly insisted that the strait will not return to its previous status as an unrestricted international waterway and have threatened vessels attempting to pass without Iranian permission.
Mahdi Mohammadi, an adviser to Iran's chief negotiator, said Iran was seeking the defeat of its adversary rather than simply an agreement.
Iranian security analysts argue that control of Hormuz has become a key instrument for deterrence and for reshaping the security balance in the Persian Gulf.
Mostafa Najafi, a Tehran-based security analyst, described the strait as a strategic lever for maintaining regional influence and altering the rules governing security in the Gulf.
The issue has also complicated the longstanding dispute over Iran's nuclear programme. Analysts say control over Hormuz could provide Tehran with additional leverage if nuclear negotiations resume.
Rahman Ghahremanpour, an Iran-based analyst, said the conflict over the strait had pushed the nuclear issue into the background, which he described as being in Iran's interests.
Despite its strategic calculations, Iran is facing severe economic pressure. US and Israeli strikes have damaged its industrial infrastructure, while the American blockade has sharply reduced its oil exports.
The conflict has contributed to soaring food prices, while Trump has repeatedly threatened further strikes against civilian infrastructure, including water and electricity facilities.
Iran has also experienced major domestic unrest. A currency crisis previously triggered some of the largest anti-government protests in the Islamic Republic's history, followed by a severe government crackdown.
Former Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has argued that Iran's performance in the conflict has created an opportunity for diplomacy. However, he warned that delaying an agreement could make economic recovery increasingly difficult and raise the possibility of renewed domestic unrest or further external aggression.
The war itself has already defied several expectations. Following the initial US and Israeli airstrikes that killed Iran's supreme leader and other senior officials, Trump had suggested the conflict could end within weeks. Instead, the confrontation has continued, with Tehran using control of the strait to demonstrate that it has not been defeated.
Ghahremanpour said the strategy could strengthen the Iranian leadership domestically by allowing it to portray itself as resilient against US pressure. However, he warned that Iran's ability to withstand the economic consequences was not unlimited.
“Iran cannot continue with this strategy forever, and at a certain point, in reality, it has to reach a deal with America,” he said.
Davari, however, maintained that despite the economic difficulties, Iran was unlikely to retreat from its current position in the immediate future.