Daijiworld Media Network - Mumbai

Mumbai, Aug 31: HDFC Bank shares continued to remain under pressure in 2026, with the stock falling nearly 27 per cent from around Rs 967 at the beginning of the year to a low of Rs 707 in August. In comparison, the Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty have declined around 8 per cent and 3.7 per cent respectively so far this year.

HDFC Bank shares gained 2.7 per cent to touch Rs 739.50 during Monday's trading session. The stock later pared some of the gains and was trading around Rs 726, up 0.8 per cent at 10.40 am.

Despite Monday's recovery, the stock is on course for its sixth monthly decline in the eight months of 2026. The prolonged weakness has brought the stock close to its 100-month moving average (100-MMA), currently around Rs 686, for the first time in its nearly 30-year history. HDFC Bank was listed in May 1995.

Drumil Vithlani, senior technical research analyst at Tiny Epic, said HDFC Bank was testing its 100-MMA, which represents an eight-year average of the stock's price, for the first time.

"Through the 2020 crash and the post-merger drawdown, the stock always held above this line; reaching it now marks a reset of the long-term trend, not a routine dip," Vithlani said.

The monthly chart also shows that HDFC Bank has remained below its 20-month moving average for seven consecutive months since February 2026. The stock has also traded below both its 20-month and 50-month moving averages since March, marking its longest such stretch since 2009.

Historical data shows that the stock had remained below both averages for three months between January and March 2009.

Vithlani said the stock's technical breakdown had occurred in stages, beginning with the breach of its daily 200-day moving average in January, followed by breaks below the monthly 20-month and 50-month averages. The stock is now testing its deepest long-term average.

According to him, the Rs 700 level has emerged as a crucial make-or-break support zone. As long as the stock holds this level, the broader base could remain intact and provide scope for accumulation on strength. However, a decisive break below it could signal further weakness and warrant caution.

"The 100-MMA lines up with the Rs 700-730 base and the 52-week-low zone — a confluence floor. The recent bounce, with the stochastic turning up from oversold, is a first-touch reflex, but counter-trend: the 200-DMA still slopes down in the mid-800s, roughly 15 per cent overhead. Structure stays lower-high, lower-low until price reclaims it," Vithlani said.

Anand James, chief market strategist at Geojit Investments, also viewed the latest rise as a possible pullback from the support zone rather than a clear trend reversal.

While some key momentum oscillators are showing encouraging signs, James said the price action remained limited.

"The stock is likely to remain tepid as long as it trades below Rs 745, whereas the Rs 700-mark on the downside remains the major support," James said.

The technical outlook therefore remains cautious, with analysts identifying Rs 700 as a crucial support level and Rs 745 as an important hurdle for any meaningful recovery in HDFC Bank shares.