Bangalore: Karnataka Coalition on Collision Course - Who's Next CM?

from our political correspondent (MB)

Bangalore, May 1: 'Do not believe any rumours until they are officially denied,' said some great man.

This appears to be coming true in the political scenario in Karnataka. The Janata Dal (Secular), which had formed a coalition government with Congress after the last assembly polls, suddenly dumped it half way through in early 2006, and went with the BJP on the clear understanding that the power - or the chief minister's chair - would be shared equally between the two parties, either holding the helm for 20 months, until the end of the tenure.

H D Kumaraswamy: In the vice grip?

With H D Kumaraswamy, son of JD(S) national president H D Deve Gowda, occupying the CM's post for the first half of the remaining months, a BJP chief minister is to take over sometime in October 2007. When many political observers have been saying that the BJP would never be allowed by the Gowda family to take the lead in power later this year, it was being regarded as sheer cynicism or wishful thinking.

But things are falling in place now. If the mutual trust between the two coalition partners was well-founded and genuine, everything would have gone all right, and there would not be any need to deny any rift again and again. But the way both parties have been issuing statements confirming the smooth transfer of power to the BJP in five months only confirms the age-old saying quoted above.

H D Deve Gowda: The master strategist

Curiously enough,  the past two days were marked by some confusing statements, beating all the rest issued during the past months. Two days ago, Deve Gowda made a remark that his son Kumaraswamy had been in the 'vice-like grip' - he used the Kannada idiom 'kapi mushthi' meaning being wrenched in a monkey's fist - and he was feeling so bad about it. On Monday, former chief minister N Dharam Singh, who was ditched by the JD(S) while in coalition in January 2006, said in Bellary that after the UP elections new political equations would emerge, strongly hinting that Congress and JD(S) might come together again. This has created some ripples in the political cirlces.

On the one hand, JD(S) is worried about the growing strength of the BJP in recent times, partly bolstered by the formation of a government with it, although in coalition, for the first time in the south. The Vikas Yatra organized by the party has been used to tomtom the achievements of the coalition government as BJP's. Deve Gowda even termed it as a case of crossing the 'Lakshman Rekha'. On the other, the JD(S) is also cross that the recent budget prepared by dyCM B S Yediyurappa of the BJP has benefited only those areas which are represented by the BJP legislators.

B S Yediyurappa: Will the CM post be elusive?

Yediyurappa has clearly set his eyes on the chief minister's seat, although his rivals in the party like MP Anant Kumar would only like to see his back and install someone like Eshwarappa on the saddle. Yediyurappa has been very careful, choosy and discreet in his remarks, so as not to upset the delicate applecart of the coalition or annoy the Gowda father-and-sons combine.

As soon as Deve Gowda expressed his displeasure over the BJP hogging the whole credit for the coalition government's achievements two days ago, Yediyurappa, who was in Mangalore to attend the temple function in Shaktinagar, issued a statement that a joint 'yatra' would be held to highlight the joint achievements of both parties. (Latest reports say Yadiyurappa cut short his visit to Mangalore and airdashed to Delhi on Monday, April 30, which has further fuelled the rumours over the future of the state government.)

If Dharam Singh issued a statement from Bellary on Monday (April 30), Kumaraswamy made some cryptic remarks the same day in Bangalore that he had not been able to work effectively because of some compulsions, thereby throwing a hint that he was being hindered by his coalition partner. He also said he would successfully come out of the labyrinth ('chakravyuha') but refused to elaborate over it.

There are many political observers who feel that the Machiavellian master strategist that he is, Deve Gowda is not the one who would allow the BJP to lead the state five months hence. He is said to be already hobnobbing with the Congress high command exploring the chances of reviving a coalition with Congress. In that event, he would like to have his other son H D Revanna, already a minister in the state government, to be made chief minister.

Sources in Bangalore and Delhi revealed that Deve Gowda is now trying to be close to the Congress high command  - read, Sonia Gandhi - with an eye on the vice president's post, now occupied by Bhairon Singh Shekawat.

Politically too, Deve Gowda is solely depending on Congress, as it appears that a non-Congress, non-BJP Third Front is emerging at the national level with former chief ministers of various states like Chandrababu Naidu, Jayalalithaa, Om Prakash Chautala and others joining hands with Mulayam Singh Yadav of the Samajwadi Party in UP and actively campaigning with him. None of them apparently favours any truck with JD(S) or Deve Gowda.

CM's post: Music to the ears

Deve Gowda's old faithful follower and former deputy chief minister S Siddaramaiah, now in Congress, is said to be opposed to the Congress joining hands with JD(S) again, more as a result of bitterness of the ill-treatment meted out to him by the Gowda clique. Gowda is said to be persuading union minister Oscar Fernandes to lead a Congress-JD(S) government in the state, which would give him an option of installing his other son Revanna as dyCM.

Eshwarappa and Siddaramaih - Kuruba leaders

If nothing works, Deve Gowda might agree to the continuance of JD(S)-BJP coalition, but with BJP's K S Eshwarappa, now a minister in the Kumaraswamy goverment, as chief minister and Revanna as dyCM. Since Eshwarappa is a Kuruba, this would enable him to settle the score with and clip the wings of another Kuruba heavyweight, Siddaramaiah.

"There are no permanent friends and no permanent enemies; but are only permanent interests," another age-old quotation, much popularized in recent years by the old political veteran, George Fernandes, vis-a-vis his dealings with the BJP, NDA, JD(U) and an assortment of political forces.

Accordingly, will Gowda's deliberations with Congress work and will Karnataka see Round II of Congress-JD(S) coalition? Or is the state going to have mid-term assembly elections?

(Report coordinated by Richie Lasrado)

CLICK HERE to read H D Deve Gowda's exclusive interview to Daijiworld.com

CLICK HERE to read S Siddaramaiah's exclusive interview to Daijiworld.com