Barring Karnataka, UP win will not help BJP much in south: Analysts


Bengaluru, Mar 12 (PTI): The thumping victory in Uttar Pradesh would embolden the BJP to spread its wings in southern states though it may have to wait for some years to have a say in states like Tamil Nadu or Kerala, according to political analysts.

Political scientist Sandeep Shastri today said Karnataka would be the corridor of power for BJP in the south, while fellow scientist at Himachal Pradesh University Ramesh Chauhan said barring Karnataka the Uttar Pradesh results will not have any positive impact in the south for the party.

"The humongous victory of BJP in Uttar Pradesh will embolden the saffron party to spread its wing down south, but not before reclaiming power in Karnataka, which is a corridor of power for BJP," Shastri told PTI here.

The BJP stormed to power in Uttar Pradesh after 14 years, securing 312 seats in 403-member assembly and demolishing rivals SP-Congress and BSP in the assembly polls.

On next year's assembly elections in Karnataka, he said BJP might not project a chief ministerial candidate and instead adopt a strategy as it did in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand and press the central leadership including Prime Minister Narendra Modi to lead poll campaigns.

Asked how he sees the growth scalability of the BJP in southern states after reclaiming power in Karnataka, Shastri said the saffron party would try to dislodge the Congress in Kerala and piggy back with one of the AIADMK factions.

"In the long run, the BJP would like to dislodge Congress in Kerala and become an alternative party in direct contention with the Left, and in Tamil Nadu, it will like to ride piggyback with one of the AIADMK factions," he said.

Shastri said the BJP would continue to make good strides in Kerala. Chauhan said BJP would have to wait for another three to four years in Tamil Nadu and Kerala.

"Except Karnataka, I don't think the UP results will have any bearing on Tamil Nadu and Kerala for another three to four years. In Tamil Nadu, the regional parties are too strong for BJP to make any roads for now," he said.

"However, the party has made some presence in Kerala in terms of percentage of votes - about 15 per cent vote," he said.

  

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Comment on this article

  • unni, kochi

    Wed, Mar 15 2017

    if my knowledge is correct bjp's vote pecentage in goa and manipur is higher than that of congress. As for the future of alliance i cant say.

    i am sure a new chief minister, not yediyurappa or sadananda gowda , willbe there by march 2018.

    DisAgree Agree Reply Report Abuse

  • Praveen s, Permannur

    Mon, Mar 13 2017

    Modi wave OK...but why provide yeddi for cruption face for educate state like Karnataka..produce good and clean gentleman.. Than only bjp will get Karnataka

    DisAgree [1] Agree [3] Reply Report Abuse

  • Rezy, Mlore/MCT

    Mon, Mar 13 2017

    BJP has aleady proved dangerous to countries happiness and growth. Its a diferent thing that thru paid media and lot of gimmicks this party is trying to be good everywhere.

    But people are aware now. Big NO for BJP here.

    DisAgree [24] Agree [11] Reply Report Abuse

  • Af,,, Mangalore

    Mon, Mar 13 2017

    All except chanakya pre and post vote results surveys are failled , after seeing this UP results next time these channels and agencies give full scores to bjp , and uttlerly fail once again.

    DisAgree [11] Agree [7] Reply Report Abuse

  • Lloyd Dsouza, Surathkal

    Mon, Mar 13 2017

    I dont understand how UP will effect Karnataka, our situation here lot of difference than UP. Media is continuously showing "target karnataka" which shos their paid honesty towards BJP. If UP is effected in Karnataka, y not effects from Punjab? Y not Goa? y not Manipur?. Its a rubbish arguments of comparing UP to Karnataka.

    DisAgree [9] Agree [7] Reply Report Abuse

  • Dinesh, Dubai

    Mon, Mar 13 2017

    100 % correct.. Siddu anna you can continue your sleep now..when BJP get 180+ Blame election commission. Next time BJP for Karnataka

    DisAgree [24] Agree [43] Reply Report Abuse

  • Flavian dsouza, chik/bengaluru

    Mon, Mar 13 2017

    BCP has won outright . BHaratiya congress party. Manipur - 18BJP MLA's are from congress, Siddu in Punjab , uttarkhand 50 % are from congress now in BJP, Bahuguna etc ..

    So BCP is the real winner !!!

    DisAgree [10] Agree [8] Reply Report Abuse

  • Manu, Kudla

    Mon, Mar 13 2017

    Who knows Pappu will al so join BJP soon !!!!

    DisAgree [10] Agree [23] Reply Report Abuse

  • N.M, Mangalore

    Mon, Mar 13 2017

    Voters of Karnataka have not forgotten Iron ore mining scam, operation Kamala, land de-notification scam, resort politics, shooting dead farmers, drought mismanagement, pak flag hoisting in Bijapur, 2009 pub attacks, 2008 attacks on places of worship, mismanagement of state exchequer, porn in assembly scandal, Eshu's cash counting machine, receiving bribe through cheque, jail yatra etc.

    Siddu led INC is doing a wonderful job in Karnataka.

    DisAgree [44] Agree [23] Reply Report Abuse

  • Shibu, Dubai

    Mon, Mar 13 2017

    siddu doing wonderful job by sending 1000 crore to high command.

    jantha ka kya hai?

    DisAgree [13] Agree [16] Reply Report Abuse

  • N.M, Mangalore

    Mon, Mar 13 2017

    False allegations without any proof.

    Have you forgotten Sahara-Birla diary?

    DisAgree [8] Agree [6] Reply Report Abuse

  • readerwriter007, pune

    Mon, Mar 13 2017

    only way open for Congi is not to comment anything now and accept the defeat as it is. If you bark more , more the damage will be. That's the major mistake they have done in this election. Some stupid , incredible personalities also started barking against Modi... which was more irritating. People are fed up of all these false promises... caste vote bank etc etc... So, they wanted some one who at least speaks about country , non caste... etc etc. More over here in Karnataka no need to Rahul to create scene... there are people like siddu and his team who are nothing less than Rahul and his comedy shows... So, no doubt about BJP sweeping Karnataka in next election.

    DisAgree [13] Agree [27] Reply Report Abuse

  • N.M, Mangalore

    Mon, Mar 13 2017

    Results of UP will have no bearing on Karnataka as Siddu has provided an efficient government . Secondly, all those bhakts who are ridiculing INC please don't forget that INC was a junior coalition partner in Punjab and are the clear cut winners in Punjab.

    In Punjab, BJP lost miserably, In Goa, 15 of their C.M has lost, 21 MLAs have lost, 7 of their 12 ministers have lost, 3 Independents have lost. In short people have OUTRIGHTLY rejected BJP.

    DisAgree [6] Agree [6] Reply Report Abuse

  • j.anata, Mangaluru / Bengaluru

    Mon, Mar 13 2017

    Look at N.M's utter inner frustrations. Lastly BJP has the last laugh in Goa!
    N.M conveniently forgets K'Nataka of 2004 and BBMP of last year!

    DisAgree [3] Agree [3] Reply Report Abuse

  • Citizen of India, Mangaluru

    Mon, Mar 13 2017

    Jossey/Shibu,

    Just wanna know if you both are either jobless or paid by your respective political parties to comment and argue...!!!

    DisAgree [7] Agree [18] Reply Report Abuse

  • D.P.Shetty, Bahrain

    Mon, Mar 13 2017

    There is no doubt next will BJP govt in karnataka. But full sweep there should be non corrupted, young leader like Akelesh to refresh voters mind for new beginning.

    DisAgree [8] Agree [14] Reply Report Abuse

  • J Dal, BVR

    Mon, Mar 13 2017

    do the BJP has guts to ask for ballot voting i stead of EVM s ...BJP wont for sure
    Modi has dobe it in Gujarat for 2 terms by tampering EVMs and now in UP and he will surely do in Karnataka and win election...But i doubt BJP will ask or EC will be o terested to bring in Ballot voting


    Election commission is aold as like RBI and that is the fate of indian constitution for now

    DisAgree [28] Agree [11] Reply Report Abuse

  • ANIKETH, MUMBAI

    Mon, Mar 13 2017

    you should know first in UP SP was in power in state . ballet machine was handled by state government..

    DisAgree [2] Agree [8] Reply Report Abuse

  • prem, moodbidri

    Mon, Mar 13 2017

    NiddeYurappa is already started acting like CM of Karnataka!

    DisAgree [4] Agree [3] Reply Report Abuse

  • Alphonso Rodrigues, Udupi

    Mon, Mar 13 2017

    For sure,, Cong may be wiped out in Ktaka however with Yeddi at its helm its not goin to be that easy. But then Cong will score self goals like, Rahuls non-stop comedy rallies, some local leaders bashing Modi even though they dont have any credibility, Priyankas once in 5 year saree appearance, Siddus arrogance. Morever BJP has already started campaigning, Siddu has yet to wake up.

    DisAgree [11] Agree [18] Reply Report Abuse

  • Indian, Karkala/Mysore

    Mon, Mar 13 2017

    I don't want both BJP & Congress to rule Karnataka, my preference is AAP at least they are keeping their promises. unlike feku and pappu.

    DisAgree [47] Agree [15] Reply Report Abuse

  • Vikas, Udupi

    Mon, Mar 13 2017

    HAHAHA, intolerance brigade have changed their topic now. From BJP can never win..to HOW much BJP can win .

    Manipur from 0 MLA 5 years back, to 1 MLA in by election....and Look today where BJP has reached.

    Kerala , we already have one MLA and desperation of CPIM is the proof about the growing clout of BJP. Unfortunately as their natural basic insticts Maoists are on killing Spree of opponents. Congress is almost Dead. Amit Shah needs some more effort to rope in some of UDF partners to make Kerala Congress mukt.

    BJP has already made their first move in TN, Paneerselvam is in Modi's pocket now. Intelligence is already collecting Sasikalas collections and reporting to modi. This data will be used during the right time.

    Ruling may be a very long journey, but Kerala and TN in another maximum 5-10 years will have a Alternate party.

    DisAgree [6] Agree [25] Reply Report Abuse

  • Sujay, Mangalore

    Mon, Mar 13 2017

    The so called political pundits and experts have been proved wrong by Modi since 2002. Not even a single exit poll managed to predict the numbers. Sickular parties have been marginalizing the Hindu majority and only rolling out benefits centered around minority communities which has led to the galvanizing of Hindu votes. The moral of the story is the more you marginalize the majority Hindu's, the more they are going to consolidate and support BJP and Modi. The way Hindu's have been butchered in Leftist dominated states like Kerala, WB and support minorities will prove costly for Left in the next elections. Its only a matter of time.

    Amit Shah and Modi are redefining the way elections are fought. You like it or not, there is no way you can stop the Modi Juggernaut. I'm glad that the core issue of elections is now Development and good governance. So proud to be living in this era of Tolerant India!

    DisAgree [3] Agree [14] Reply Report Abuse

  • Sachidanand Shetty, Mundkur/Dubai

    Mon, Mar 13 2017

    Sometime we don't know whether to laugh or cry.....all Political Pundits and all Media personnel proved wrong many times in recent pasts....but still they give their opinion and GOD knows who is there to buy their products????

    DisAgree [1] Agree [27] Reply Report Abuse

  • Af,,, Mangalore

    Mon, Mar 13 2017

    Goa and manipur single largest party is congres, bjp some how wants to make govt it shows their power hungrey culture rather than state intrest and peoples development,.

    DisAgree [29] Agree [25] Reply Report Abuse

  • Ramesh S, Mangalore

    Mon, Mar 13 2017

    ..After unexpected results these Analysts consoling themself.. lets wait for Intellectuals, you will see debates like there is not a single minority MLA in UP BJP its not good for democracy so on..rubbish..no Analyst needed, every one knows in KARANATA/GOA only BJP has strong base, in other states it needs a strong local leader and another 5-6 years to build party..

    DisAgree [3] Agree [26] Reply Report Abuse

  • Anand, Karkala

    Mon, Mar 13 2017

    No Exit Poll or No Election needed in Karnataka to determine who will be the winner in 2018? People already have decided whom to elect...

    DisAgree [11] Agree [44] Reply Report Abuse

  • Jossey Saldanha, Mumbai

    Mon, Mar 13 2017

    Why are our Jokers Dancing ...

    DisAgree [21] Agree [7] Reply Report Abuse

  • sri, Karkala

    Mon, Mar 13 2017

    Jagadish shettar or Sadananda Gowda should become chief minister again...

    DisAgree [51] Agree [13] Reply Report Abuse

  • Pratap Rao, Bangalore

    Mon, Mar 13 2017

    With Siddharamaiah on the Chair there is no way BJP can return to power. How can Yeddy be compared to Siddhu? Congress needs to strengthen itself through its secular ideology educating people on the dangers of fascism in India

    DisAgree [36] Agree [41] Reply Report Abuse

  • Neeth, Mangalore

    Mon, Mar 13 2017

    First Siddhu needs to wake up

    DisAgree [12] Agree [36] Reply Report Abuse

  • Sachidanand Shetty, Mundkur/Dubai

    Mon, Mar 13 2017

    You are wrong Dear Rao.....you take my words....because of Siddu & Party....BJP will come to power in Karnataka for sure

    DisAgree [19] Agree [37] Reply Report Abuse

  • Vinayak prabhu, Mangalore

    Mon, Mar 13 2017

    Yeddyurappa is enough to win Karnataka. We don't need modi. But ya he can help us to get 3/4 th majority. JDS will get single digit. Congress will have huge set back below 60

    DisAgree [8] Agree [15] Reply Report Abuse

  • Nithin Poojary, Mangalore

    Sun, Mar 12 2017

    Giving due respect to the peoples verdict, There is a strong demand for good old ballot paper to caste the vote enstead of EVM. Ballot paper will ensure a fair election. Siddaramiah should insist on Ballot paper election in 2018.

    DisAgree [29] Agree [43] Reply Report Abuse

  • ISMAIL K, PERINJE

    Sun, Mar 12 2017

    BJP Mukth South India already done ,loosing Goa and back door entry only they can retain power but durability of the govt is not guaranteed. Anti incumbency factor is visible in 5 states and a change of guard was people opted...

    DisAgree [62] Agree [36] Reply Report Abuse

  • Shibu, Dubai

    Mon, Mar 13 2017

    BBMP- i remember some thing
    Congress and JDS are fighting in road day and m=night
    but in BBMP enterered from access door.

    Ganda hendathi Jagala BBMP election aguva varege???????

    DisAgree [6] Agree [28] Reply Report Abuse

  • Neeth, Mangalore

    Mon, Mar 13 2017

    Even Rahul is not as optimistic as you.. good luck

    DisAgree [5] Agree [31] Reply Report Abuse

  • j.anata, Mangaluru / Bengaluru

    Mon, Mar 13 2017

    Ismail, the other day former PM Deve Gowdru clearly explained the ascent of BJP in South. Karnataka is just one step away from being BJP ruled. Kerala, AP and Telengana are on radar (If you recollect, of the TWO seats won by BJP in 1980 (one was the SECUNDERABAD LS seat, now in Telengana)) So bouncing back in AP and Telengana is easier with alliance with TRS and TDP. Kerala we all know the performance in 2014 and 2016. From 5%, party is now at 15% vote share. Seats will be won next.

    TN is the only difficult terrain for BJP If I could analyse right

    DisAgree [4] Agree [17] Reply Report Abuse

  • SB, Mlore

    Mon, Mar 13 2017

    2004 , Karnataka election, Dharam singh CM ...Through which door ?

    DisAgree [2] Agree [16] Reply Report Abuse

  • Sachidanand Shetty, Mundkur/Dubai

    Mon, Mar 13 2017

    Ismail Bhai....not seen for many days!!!! Keep writing something like this... else we feel bore sometimes!!!

    DisAgree [2] Agree [19] Reply Report Abuse

  • Ganesh, Bengaluru

    Mon, Mar 13 2017

    Because of UP election on duty Kai Mission.

    DisAgree [2] Agree [9] Reply Report Abuse

  • Shibu, Dubai

    Mon, Mar 13 2017

    ismail bhai
    hal chal kya hai?
    sab teek tho?

    DisAgree [3] Agree [10] Reply Report Abuse

  • Gurudath, M'lore/Mumbai

    Sun, Mar 12 2017

    Don't underestimate BJPs potential, Karnataka would have been a washout for Congress anyway. In Kerala, BJP will start marking its presence. People are really fed up with horrendous political killings. See what has happened to Manipur. They already have a presence in Andhra/Telengana which will grow. In Tamilnadu they have a real chance.

    DisAgree [26] Agree [29] Reply Report Abuse

  • Guru Bhat, Mangalore

    Sun, Mar 12 2017

    And why should one give even a minute of importance to these so called analysts who got UP poll results prediction utterly incorrect?

    DisAgree [3] Agree [35] Reply Report Abuse

  • RR, Mangalore

    Sun, Mar 12 2017

    In Karnataka present govt is a gift by previous yeddy & co. Situation was so bad in those days that even in Keshava Kripa, chamarajpet, Blore there was so rush by visitors from ministers and frequent summons to yeddi by maicha. People were fed up and with out any alternative gave power to actual known chors. Now Amit Shah has to think twice before bringing that core batch with Kubera and shakuni.. People vote bjp but not the previous batch.

    DisAgree [20] Agree [27] Reply Report Abuse


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Title: Barring Karnataka, UP win will not help BJP much in south: Analysts



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