DNA

New Delhi, Aug 14: Showing no sign of reversing its rising graph, inflation has touched 12.44 per cent for the week ended August 2, on the back of rising food and fuel prices.

Earlier during the day a strong wave of selling towards end of session saw the Sensex end at day’s lows. The market was abuzz that inflation numbers would be above 12.4 per cent against media expectations of 12.16 per cent. Traders also squared off positions ahead of an extended weekend.

Annual inflation based on wholesale prices crossed the 12 per cent mark during the week ended July 26, fuelled by costlier manufactured products, fuel and food items other than vegetables. Vegetable prices showed a decline of 8 per cent from the year-ago period. However food products rose by 0.1 per cent, non-food articles 0.4 per cent and textiles by 0.4 per cent. Similarly, primary articles were up 0.1 per cent and chemical and chemical products 0.5 per cent. Fuel and petroleum remained unchanged.

The RBI recently raised its key lending rate for the third time in two months, taking it to its highest in seven years to quell price pressures, dampen demand and keep inflation expectations in check. The apex bank hiked the benchmark short-term rate by 50 basis points, about 25 bps more than what the market had expected, and the cash reserve ratio, the amount of funds banks must keep on deposit with it, by 25 basis points to 9 per cent to absorb surplus cash in the banking system.

"Bringing down inflation from the current high levels and stabilising inflation expectations assume the highest priority in the stance of monetary policy,” the RBI said in its quarterly review.

However, the government’s fiscal and monetary measures have so far failed to tame the rising prices, and another round of monetary tightening is feared.

“Inflation may peak in November-December and slip into single-digit by March 2009. Going by the current price situation, there may be another round of monetary tightening,” said Prime Minister’s economic advisory council member Saumitra Choudhury recently.

Finance ministry’s chief economic advisor Arvind Virmani, however, is cautiously optimistic. At a recent CII conference in Chennai, he said: “The uncertain oil prices make it difficult to make short-term predictions, but in the next 12 months, the inflation rate would return to normal levels of 5-6 per cent.”