Demonetisation was not well thought-out, useful exercise: Raghuram Rajan


New York, Apr 12 (IANS): Demonetisation was not a well-planned or well thought-out useful exercise said Raghuram Rajan, ex-Governor of Reserve Bank of India, adding that the government was cautioned about it when the idea was mooted.

"Demonetisation I think was not a well-planned, well thought-out useful exercise. And I told the government that when the idea was first mooted. It seemed to me that people would find their way around," Rajan said at the Harvard Kennedy School in Cambridge on Wednesday.

The Indian government, in November 2016 demonetised high value Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes with the aimed to curb black money in the system.

"At the time of demonetisation, it was 87.5 per cent of the currency value. Any macro economist would say that when you are demonetising 87.5 per cent of the currency, better make sure that you print 87.5 per cent or pretty-much close to that. India went into it without having done that," Rajan said.

"So it had a negative economic impact. But also the idea was that somehow people who had money stored in the basements, without having paid taxes on it, would sort of overnight see religion, come to the government and say sorry we were hiding these stuff, let me pay taxes on it. That was to some extent naïve of you. Anybody who knows India, knows that very quickly we find ways around the system," he added.

Rajan said essentially the money that was demonetised came back to the system, "but it did not have the direct effect that was sought that a lot of people will pay taxes."

"There may be some longer term impact that people think that if this sort of thing happens that the government is serious of collecting taxes, there may be greater tax payments, but we still have to see strong evidence that is true," the ex-governor said.

"So the negative economic impact that people not having currency, not being able able to pay, economic activity plummeting, especially in the informal sector, that happened. A lot of people probably lost their jobs, we do not count that well because it is the informal sector."

He, however, said: "The positive impacts are out there in the future, we do not know whether they will be important and to my mind, it was not a policy that was useful at that time."

Asked whether the RBI was consulted before the government announced demonetisation, Rajan said: "We were consulted and we did not think it was a good idea on demonetisation. The cost of demonetisation vary between 1.5-2 per cent of GDP.

"I do not think there is huge amount of dispute about it. I don't think even the government necessarily challenges that and it would be a really die hard government advocate who would say that growth benefits of demonetisation were immediate."

Talking about the non-performing assets and multi-crore Punjab National Bank scandal, Rajan said the worry is some of the banks still follow antiquated system.

"Worry is systems are not adequate to prevent rogue dealers, rogue employees colluding and making off with stuff."

Regarding the newly introduced indirect tax regime of Goods and Services Tax (GST), he said: "GST implementation, we will figure it out eventually. It would be nice if we can implement it much better than we do. But it is not an unfixable problem, we can work on it. I won't give up hope on that at this point of time."

  

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Comment on this article

  • Raj, Mangalore

    Fri, Apr 13 2018

    Modi followers are not interested in facts , reason and wisdom. Their idea of great leadership is derived from Hindi cinema- pompous speeches and dramatic gestures. There is no point in using rational persuasion to the close minded followers of Modi/BJP.

    DisAgree Agree Reply Report Abuse

  • Ahmed K. C., Mangalore

    Fri, Apr 13 2018

    "Khud ko abaad aur doosronko barbaad"
    This is how it was thought.
    Wicked minds work this way.

    DisAgree Agree Reply Report Abuse

  • SMR, karkala

    Fri, Apr 13 2018

    “Mere pyare deshvasiyon, give me 50 days of pain to deliver the India of your dreams,” said Prime Minister Narendra Modi on November 8, “otherwise punish me at the place of your choice” - and most of India was sold to the utopian idea.
    The poor people's tears and deaths will curses and haunt PM Modi for his rest of his life.

    Despite 'Demonetisation' under Narendra Modi's rule, a string of well-connected businessmen have been able to escape legal consequences.

    The “chowkidar” claim made by Modi is also in tatters. During his four years in office, a string of billionaire defaulters have brazenly made what a top BJP minister described to me as “assisted escapes”.

    There are more than 30 billionaires escaped after great bank haste. How Many Billionaires Will Get Away While India's 'Chowkidar' Looks On?

    Punishment time for Mr Modi, 50 days of demonetisation are over. The PM did not keep any of his promises. We must keep the one he made for us.

    Jai Hind

    DisAgree Agree [1] Reply Report Abuse

  • Cyril, Mangalore

    Thu, Apr 12 2018

    No..no,
    Demonetisation well thought of how to make Indians poor and jobless.

    DisAgree [1] Agree [9] Reply Report Abuse

  • Dr Mohan Prabhu, LL.D, QC, Mangalore (Kankanady)/Ottawa, Canada

    Thu, Apr 12 2018

    RR doesn't say anything about what happens to the demonetized currency that has been hoarded and never exchanged because the government will find out that it was black money - that black money is useless to the hoarder!

    DisAgree [10] Agree [1] Reply Report Abuse

  • Swamy, Mangalore

    Thu, Apr 12 2018

    Your short sightedness being self proclaimed PhD holder casts lot of doubt. Does your statement apply to BJP ministers who are alerted just before note ban came into force and are shielded from Demonetisation mess?!?!?!?!?....

    DisAgree Agree Reply Report Abuse

  • Kiran, Mangalore/Bangalore

    Thu, Apr 12 2018

    Where is the question of hoarding when the Government has accepted that over 99% of the money has been returned. Get your logic right

    DisAgree Agree Reply Report Abuse

  • Swamy, Mangalore

    Thu, Apr 12 2018

    All projects and services implemented by BJP had ulterior selfish motive and certainly not for the benefit of the public.

    DisAgree Agree [17] Reply Report Abuse

  • JML Joseph, Mangalore

    Thu, Apr 12 2018

    Not only DEMONitization, GST, Cattle Ban, Exam Paper leakage and many many many more Scandals have created a deep crater in the economy and a Permanent Hole in the Common man's pocket .

    The 3 major sectors A C T are in shambles.
    A : Agriculture Farmers instead of getting MSP for their crops are on losing end with Cattle ban and having to pay more by way of GST and increased fuel prices.

    C: Construction is frozen and real estate shattered .Cement Industry is down and prices of Cement highest ever.

    T: T: Textiles is in deep freeze. All Garment sector workers have yet to recover from the shock of demonetization and GST.

    There is no news of 2 Cr Jobs.
    Promises of 15 lakhs and ending Corruption remain only on paper and poll manifesto deeply buried .

    The Government seems oblivious and keeps changing its narration as if nothing a sever happened .

    The Current RBI and Finance Team have even welcomed GST saying it will benefit the next generation, which means effectively that the current generation can go to Hell !!!

    DisAgree Agree [8] Reply Report Abuse

  • Deghi Mirch, India

    Thu, Apr 12 2018

    Before you throw stones at others' house, dear Dr.Rajan, please explain PNB fraud. What were you doing as the governor of RBI between 2013-17 when this LOU scam in the 2nd biggest national lender in our country was unfolding? Were you fast asleep at the wheel?

    Now you are on a lecture circuit slagging others' faults while you don't speak about your own follies riddled with incompetence. This does not befit an IIT IIM alumni who is an economics professor at the prestigious Chicago school. It almost reeks of your ambitions to get into politics. Do one thing, spare India, acquire US citizenship and try your experiment in the USA.

    DisAgree [7] Agree [1] Reply Report Abuse

  • ca girishkk, m'lore/dxb

    Thu, Apr 12 2018

    Limited to IQ potential..., in my view...., it is not prudent to expect beyond that....!!!!

    DisAgree Agree [4] Reply Report Abuse

  • KRPrabhu, Mangalore/Bangalore

    Thu, Apr 12 2018

    Demonetisation was good....but it did not deliver the expected yield as it was poorly managed at ground level.Do total failure.Many bankers minted money worth.multiples of their retirement benefits.Had there been in clear guidelines for bankers in place,things would have worked well towards the target.
    Reseltant lots of job opportunities list,number of business,industrial units closed ,NPA in banks shot up,agriculturists lost substantial earnings due to failed market for produces.Inyrofuctikn of 2000 denomination note is a blunder and not introduction of new 1000 note was not a prudent decision....Country pushed to decades back in progress.
    It is said that still govt has no idea about how much denetisation currency has with RBI as counting is still on....!

    DisAgree Agree [3] Reply Report Abuse

  • Jembar Bappu, Bajpe

    Thu, Apr 12 2018

    New well thought activity is fasting by BJP MPs. Really worried to face more jumla activities in future !!!!

    DisAgree Agree [4] Reply Report Abuse

  • Valerian D'Souza, Udupi / Mumbai

    Thu, Apr 12 2018

    No only demonetisation..... GST, Beep Ban, nothing well thought -out, far sighted economic reform.
    All done either craftily or to arouse sentiments!
    Sudden Demonetisation and digitalisation was like asking 10th student to give 15th exam overnight.
    Countless changes are made in GST less than a year of enactment.
    Beef ban is also under reversal!!!

    DisAgree [1] Agree [29] Reply Report Abuse


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