Notes ban, GST held back India's economic growth: Raghuram Rajan


Washington, Nov 10(PTI): Demonetisation and the Goods and Services Tax (GST) are the two major headwinds that held back India's economic growth last year, former RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan has said, asserting that the current seven per cent growth rate is not enough to meet the country's needs.

Addressing an audience at the University of California in Berkley on Friday, Mr Rajan said for four years 2012 to 2016 India was growing at a faster pace before it was hit by two major headwinds.

"The two successive shocks of demonetisation and the GST had a serious impact on growth in India. Growth has fallen off interestingly at a time when growth in the global economy has been peaking up," he said delivering the second Bhattacharya Lectureship on the Future of India.

A growth rate of seven per cent per year for 25 years is "very very strong" growth, but in some sense this has become the new Hindu rate of growth, which earlier used to be three-and-a-half per cent, Mr Rajan said.

"The reality is that seven is not enough for the kind of people coming into the labour market and we need jobs for them, so, we need more and cannot be satisfied at this level," he said.

Observing that India is sensitive to global growth, he said India has become a much more open economy, and if the world grows, it also grows more.

"What happened in 2017 is that even as the world picked up, India went down. That reflects the fact that these blows (demonetisation and GST) have really really been hard blows...Because of these headwinds we have been held back," he said.

While India's growth is picking up again, there is the issue of oil prices, the economist noted referring to the huge reliance of India on import of oil for its energy needs.

With the oil prices going up, Mr Rajan said things are going to be little tougher for the Indian economy, even though the country is recovering from the headwinds of demonetisation and initial hurdles in the implementation of the GST.

Commenting on the rising Non-Performing Assets (NPA), he said the best thing to do in such a situation is to "clean up".

It is essential to "deal up with the bad stuff", so that with clean balance sheets, banks can be put back on the track. "It has taken India far long to clean up the banks, partly because the system did not had instruments to deal with bad debts," Mr Rajan said.

The bankruptcy code, he asserted, cannot be the only way to clean up the banks. It is the only one element of the larger cleanup plan, he said and called for a multi-prong approach to address the challenge of NPAs in India.

India, he asserted, is capable of a strong growth. As such the seven per cent growth is now being taken granted.

"If we go below seven per cent, then we must be doing something wrong," he said adding that that is the base on which India has to grow at least for next 10-15 years.

India, he said, needs to create one million jobs a month for the people joining the labour force.

The country today is facing three major bottlenecks. One is the torn infrastructure, he said, observing that construction is the one industry that drives the economy in early stages. "Infrastructure creates growth," he said. Second, short term target should be to clean up the power sector and to make sure that the electricity produced actually goes to the people who want the power, he said.

Cleaning up the banks is the third major bottleneck in India's growth, he said.

Part of the problem in India is that there is an excessive centralisation of power in the political decision making, he said.

"India can't work from the centre. India works when you have many people taking up the burden. And today the central government is excessively centralised," Mr Rajan said. An example of this is the quantum of decisions that requires the ascent of the Prime Minister's Office, he said, amidst mounting tension between the Reserve Bank and the finance ministry.

The RBI led by Governor Urjit Patel and the government have not been on the same page on different issues for some months now. The disagreements came out in open when RBI Deputy Governor Viral Acharya in a hard-hitting speech said failure to defend the central bank's independence would "incur the wrath of the financial markets".

It later emerged that the government had used a never-before-used provision of the law to seek resolution of issues, including the easing of NPA norms, so that banks can kick-start lending and support growth, and transferring more dividend to boost liquidity -- issues which the central bank thinks cannot be relented.

  

Top Stories

Comment on this article

  • Ashok Naik, Wilmington

    Sat, Nov 10 2018

    let him worry about his studies rather then look at indian economy ..

    DisAgree [15] Agree [1] Reply Report Abuse

  • David Pais, Mangalore

    Sat, Nov 10 2018

    chiwala-ಬಿಕ್ಶುಕನಿಗ ಐಶ್ವರ್ಯ ಬಂದರೆ ನಡುರಾತ್ರಿಯಲ್ಲಿ ಯೆದ್ದು ಕೊಡೆ ಹಿಡ್ದಾನು.

    DisAgree [2] Agree [4] Reply Report Abuse

  • Sahil, Mangaluru

    Sat, Nov 10 2018

    GST deffinately boost the economy in long running no doubt about that Mr raja green card holder.during your era even you never try to open the matter of bad loans.

    DisAgree [3] Agree [3] Reply Report Abuse

  • Swamy, Mangalore

    Sat, Nov 10 2018

    Modi vowed in public to give him 50 days to reap the benefits of Demonetisation and GST otherwise to burn him alive. Now more than 50 days people are reeling under the ill effects of Demo and GST and it's becoming extremely difficult for them to lead normal life with bare minimum necessities without any relief in sight and becoming bad to worse everyday that passes. This is seen further by BJP digging into reserves funds of RBI to cover up the mess it has created and making the situation even more precaroius than it is already in. It is time for Modi to accept and execute his own vow in public by the public to the public from the public. It is now people's turn to show the power of 56" chest to Modi and dump him forever 56" deep.

    DisAgree [2] Agree [15] Reply Report Abuse

  • David Pais, Mangalore

    Sat, Nov 10 2018

    anpad-ko kaise samaj mem aayega.

    DisAgree [1] Agree [14] Reply Report Abuse

  • Sahil, Mangaluru

    Sat, Nov 10 2018

    Economic upward and downward common on all the country but at this juncture provide solution.
    Blame each other won't work at all.

    DisAgree [8] Agree [1] Reply Report Abuse

  • Cyril, Mangalore

    Sat, Nov 10 2018

    Notes Ban..!!
    Ban BJP..??

    DisAgree [1] Agree [16] Reply Report Abuse

  • Ganesh, Kuwait/Padubidri

    Sat, Nov 10 2018

    Any Tom ,Dick &Harry blaming Modi will become good economist or statesman.
    Why he is not talking NPA due to phone banking during his tenure?what policies he promulgated for the same?
    It is easy to be commentator and critucize.
    When you induce turbulance ,it may take sometime to settle.Outcome is yet known though people may says jobs lost,wider tax net etc..
    At least one thing is sure that,the parellel economy is dead.

    DisAgree [20] Agree [2] Reply Report Abuse

  • Swamy, Mangalore

    Sat, Nov 10 2018

    'Parallel Economy' is not dead but transferred inside BJP and made it perpendicular for selfish needs of BJP.

    DisAgree [1] Agree [17] Reply Report Abuse

  • Axa, Mlore

    Sat, Nov 10 2018

    My uncle works as govt employee,unable to accomodate his kids higher education needs,he was simultaneously running a small trading business.Plying from bombay to mlre,he traded...After the launch of GST ,he had fo stop his business fully.

    GST has scrwed the small.scale business people.Close to 50% of indias GDP is contributed by unorganized people like these.

    Who represents india more rich barons or unorganized people like these?

    DisAgree Agree [8] Reply Report Abuse

  • El En Tea, Mumbai

    Sat, Nov 10 2018

    Current RBI Governor planing to resign

    DisAgree Agree [9] Reply Report Abuse

  • Jenifer, Mangalore

    Sat, Nov 10 2018

    Makes no difference to Rajan. He went back upon his term end, on his own accord, to do what he loved the most - teaching economics.

    Let both the Gujjus jump in the Arabian Sea from the 'Kach' side !

    DisAgree Agree [16] Reply Report Abuse

  • Mohammed, Kundapur/Qatar

    Sat, Nov 10 2018

    where are those bhakts, who used to claim Chaukidar is working for 18 hours a day ?
    if modi would have spent 18 minutes everyday thinking about indian economy rather than his foreign tours, india wouldn't have faced this situation.
    indian currency loosing it's worth in international market, than nepal and bangladesh.

    DisAgree [1] Agree [16] Reply Report Abuse

  • Stan, Udupi/Dubai

    Sat, Nov 10 2018

    iN 2019 elections voters will punish real thugs of Hindustan.

    DisAgree [1] Agree [10] Reply Report Abuse

  • Joel, Mangalore/ksa

    Sat, Nov 10 2018

    Only educated people can understand what he is telling. I don't think gov will take his advice of an educated person ..

    DisAgree Agree [17] Reply Report Abuse

  • Vincent Rodrigues, Katapadi/Bangalore

    Sat, Nov 10 2018

    Both reforms are unwarranted,implemented on hurry without right preparation led the country to dogs.

    DisAgree Agree [15] Reply Report Abuse

  • Jenifer, Mangalore

    Sat, Nov 10 2018

    Good that he is talking on the subject outside the country. If he was giving the lecture within India, the next day nobody would have had a clue where the gentleman is.

    DisAgree [1] Agree [25] Reply Report Abuse

  • J N Lobo, Mumbai

    Sat, Nov 10 2018

    He would have been branded as anti-national and attacked by the ignorant and arrogant hotheads .

    DisAgree Agree [7] Reply Report Abuse

  • Jossey Saldanha, Mumbai

    Sat, Nov 10 2018

    Raghuram Rajan is a qualified Economist ...

    DisAgree [2] Agree [31] Reply Report Abuse

  • Dr.S.Kamath, Mumbai

    Sat, Nov 10 2018

    Raghuram Rajan doesn't have any degrees in economics
    He has done MBA Finance
    He is a financial consultant
    As per Dr Swamy he is unfit to be a Governor of RBI

    DisAgree [19] Agree [3] Reply Report Abuse

  • Sanjay, Mangalore

    Sat, Nov 10 2018

    So Dr. according to you who is fit for that post, You can suggest a kamath . Iam sure even he will be reeling his head in that chair with these bunch of BJP politicians meddling the economy.

    DisAgree [1] Agree [9] Reply Report Abuse

  • Sheikh, Karkala

    Sat, Nov 10 2018

    You mean modi is qualified?
    India is heading towards past under modi.

    DisAgree Agree [10] Reply Report Abuse

  • Swamy, Mangalore

    Sat, Nov 10 2018

    And as per that same Dr Swamy predicted economic collapse after Dr Rajan's departure. Now we are seeing it in realtime. FYI, one has to be a doctorate to teach and be a professor in the US. He was in IMF as director of economies and research. Your Dr is invalid outside Nagpur HQ boundaries. Don't degrade the Dr title with your street language and low level illogical reasoning. I suggest you to write Ch as title.

    DisAgree Agree [10] Reply Report Abuse


Leave a Comment

Title: Notes ban, GST held back India's economic growth: Raghuram Rajan



You have 2000 characters left.

Disclaimer:

Please write your correct name and email address. Kindly do not post any personal, abusive, defamatory, infringing, obscene, indecent, discriminatory or unlawful or similar comments. Daijiworld.com will not be responsible for any defamatory message posted under this article.

Please note that sending false messages to insult, defame, intimidate, mislead or deceive people or to intentionally cause public disorder is punishable under law. It is obligatory on Daijiworld to provide the IP address and other details of senders of such comments, to the authority concerned upon request.

Hence, sending offensive comments using daijiworld will be purely at your own risk, and in no way will Daijiworld.com be held responsible.