By Florine Roche

Mangaluru, Dec 24: The supporters of the grand old political party of India – the Congress, may say the question on Congress bouncing back, is irrelevant at this juncture after the party registered an emphatic victory in the Hindi heartland. The argument is that the result of the by-elections in the 5 states held recently in which the Congress won in three important states, has certainly energised the Congress rank and file whose fortunes were on the downhill ever since the BJP coming to power in 2014.

Enthused by these victories there is the talk of the Congress making a grand comeback in the soon to be held general elections in 2019. The party supporters also claim that the victory has been a biggest morale booster to Rahul Gandhi who tasted political success for the first time after taking over as the Congress party chief. Following the victory in these states, the Congress is making tall claims that it will win the 2019 elections and is trying every possible trick to create positive political atmosphere. Its lacklustre performance in Telangana and loss in Mizoram - its last bastion in the North East, got buried under the stupendous victories in the three states.

As compared to the Congress, the BJP has suffered a serious setback in the political heartland in these by-elections touted as the semi-finals before the next general elections. Its performance in Chhattisgarh was a big disappointment though it did give a tough fight to the Congress in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. In Chhattisgarh the Ajith Jogi factor caused more damage to the BJP than to the Congress. That BJP is going to lose in Rajasthan was predicted even before the elections and BJP banked its hopes on Madhya Pradesh. The victory in Madhya Pradesh has given the Congress an upper hand considering that the state has been a BJP stronghold since the 60’s. The BJP also had acknowledged that results of Madhya Pradesh were crucial and it had hoped to register a win. The overconfidence boomeranged as it succeeded only in giving a close fight to the Congress.

The anti-incumbency factor and rural distress proved to be the BJP’s undoing in all the three states. It goes to prove that local issues play a key role in assembly elections than national issues. The only consolation for the BJP is the victory of Mizo National Front (MNF) which is a part of the North East Democratic Alliance, a political coalition stitched together by the BJP along with the regional parties of North East. With this victory, for the first time the entire North East has become Congress Mukt, giving big blow to the Congress as a political entity with pan-India presence.

Now let us have a reality check. In these elections, Congressmen may argue Rahul Gandhi has amply demonstrated his political acumen and leadership capabilities despite the frequent gaffes that provided enough fodder to the social media. He is more aggressive, is very active in the social media, gives quick rebuttals on twitter, had more media visibility, held more meetings and rallies in the recent by-elections and directed his tirade directly against Prime Minister Modi, thus positioning himself against his formidable political foe.

Agreed! A more aggressive Rahul Gandhi might have helped the Congress to revive its fading fortunes only up to a limited extent and not beyond that. While the Congress has offset earlier efforts to blame Rahul Gandhi for the losses including its lacklustre performance in Karnataka which forced it to leave the reins of power to a smaller partner with a handful of seats, the recent wins also cannot be attributed to Rahul Gandhi alone. The same anti-incumbency factors which had earlier catapulted the BJP to power were responsible for dislodging the BJP from power this time around. The populist measures including waiving of farmer loans and the soft Hindutva card swung the pendulum in favour of the Congress.

Who is more battle ready for the big fight of 2019?

The Congress’s recent win has dented Amit Shah’s image as the modern Chanakya and has put an end to the BJP’s winning spree which will be used by the Congress in the next elections. While the recent victory has infused new vigour in the Congress camp it has also proved to be a wakeup call for the BJP to set its house in order. It is true that BJP which is still a formidable force in many pockets of the country including Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh where it lost out to the Congress. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity remains intact notwithstanding the recent setbacks.

Unlike Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh where the Congress could rely heavily on leaders like Sachin Pilot and Kamal Nath respectively, to campaign from scratch, it does not have leaders of that stature in other states to pose a serious challenge to the BJP. At this juncture it is pertinent to recall that in 2015 within a year of the BJP coming to power at the centre, the party had suffered a big blow having lost Delhi and Bihar. However, that loss did not deter the party in registering a series of wins in most of the states where assembly elections were held. Of course, that invincibility of the BJP now stands ebbed, rekindling hopes for the opposition to capture power at the centre in 2019.

At the same time it must be borne in mind that the electorate has not behaved in the same manner when it comes to assembly and general elections in our country. While local issues dominate assembly elections, general elections go beyond the realm of local issues. A strong leader with a visionary approach is India’s need and Rahul Gandhi has to prove that he is capable of posing a serious challenge to Narendra Modi to lead India in these challenging times. Ultimately, for both the Congress and the BJP it bogs down to winning as many alliance partners they can to their respective camps and fight the elections on a one to one basis.

Setbacks

Even as the Congress is savouring the victory in three states, it received a jolt in the form of series of setbacks recently like the 1984 conviction of Congress leader Sajjan Kumar, Supreme Court’s verdict on Rafale giving a big reprieve to the BJP and the eviction order issued by the Delhi High Court asking the publisher of the Congress-linked National Herald to vacate its headquarters in Delhi within two weeks saying the space is not being used for the original purpose it was leased out for. Sajjan Kumar’s conviction has now shifted the focus on the new Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh Kamal Nath whose name is also linked to the 1984 Sikh riots. According to H S Phoolka, the lawyer who fights the case for the victims of the genocide, there is a strong evidence against Kamal Nath for having led a mob at Rakab Ganj Gurudwara near the Parliament House proving his involvement in the anti-Sikh riots.

Journalist Sanjay Suri in his affidavit before the Mishra Commission and also local deposition before the Nanavati Commission has reported about Kamal Nath’s involvement in controlling the mob that had attacked the Gurudwar in which two Sikhs were roasted alive. There is also a demand for removal of Jagadish Tytler from the Congress. One has to wait and watch how the Congress is going to deal with this acid test.

Leading from the front?

The Mahagathbandhan (grand coalition) which the opposition is trying to put together with the help of the regional parties is proving to be quite a herculean task for the Congress. By proposing Rahul Gandhi’s name for the post of Prime Minister of Mahagathbandhan, DMK’s M K Stalin has scuttled the aspirations of the likes of Mamta Bannerji, Mayavati, Chandrababu Naidu and other regional satraps including Deve Gowda. The fact that leaders like Stalin and Chandrababu Naidu are taking lead in forming the Mahagathbandhan shows that the Congress is reduced to playing the second fiddle. This does not augur well for a national party vis a vis the regional parties. Though public memory is short, it will still remember the uncertainty that gripped the nation during coalition rule during Deve Gowda-I K Gujral period.

Populist measures and sops along with playing the soft Hindutva card have played a big role in the victory of the Congress in three states in addition to the above stated facts. The Congress played the Hindutva card dexterously which was forced on it by the BJP. It remains to be seen whether it is going to soft-pedal on these issues even during the 2019 general elections and play its role as per the agenda set by the BJP or will it set its own agenda with stated ideology to counter the BJP.