By Venkatachari Jagannathan
Chennai, Jul 13 (IANS): If at all a union territory is to be carved out of the western belt of Tamil Nadu, it will have negative impact on the two major political parties -- the ruling DMK and the AIADMK -- and also the BJP in the state, say political analysts.
According to one analyst, the Kongu Naadu will be only rhetoric slogan to needle the DMK which started irritating the central government by calling it as 'Ondriya Aarasu' instead of 'Madhya Aarasu' or 'Indiya Aarasu'.
That apart, the economic impact of such carving out will be harsh on the rest of Tamil Nadu.
"The carving out will impact the DMK's claims as the sole protector of Tamil language and culture. If the Kongu Naadu comes into effect, there will be three states with Tamil as the official language -- Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and the newly formed Kongu Naadu," political analyst Sriram Seshadri, told IANS.
Continuing further he added: "The DMK and its parent body Dravida Kazhagam (DK) has been saying Tamil Nadu as the land of Periyar or E.V. Ramasamy, the founder of DK. If a union territory is carved out of the western belt that includes Erode (wherefrom Ramasamy hailed) then Periyar Soil claim will go away from Tamil Nadu."
According to Seshadri, the DMK will be blamed for the bifurcation as it was the first to start terming the central government as `Ondriya Aarasu' -a term which it claims to be correct and constitutional- but others consider as sowing the seeds of separatism.
The DMK government also omitted the words 'Jai Hind' from the Governor's address to the assembly and a lawmaker elected on DMK's ticket said he was proud of that omission.
The DMK President and Chief Minister M.K.Stalin did not comment on that matter.
The Kongu Naadu controversy in Tamil Nadu has its origin in the central government's press note that mentioned that as the place from where the newly sworn-in Minister of State for Fisheries, Animal Husbandry and Dairying, Information Broadcasting L. Murugan hails from.
A leading Tamil daily speculated on central government's plans to carve out the western belt in Tamil Nadu as a separate union territory where the BJP has considerable support base.
The Kongu Region or generally the western belt of Tamil Nadu, is the place where people belonging to Gounder community are majorly present.
"The Kongu Region or the Gounder belt includes Nilgiris, Coimbatore, Tiruppur, Erode, Karur, Dindigul, Namakkal, Salem, Dharmapuri and Krishnagiri. The region may have about 75 legislative assembly constituencies," K.C. Palanisamy, a former MP and a former MLA, told IANS.
According to Seshadri, these districts account for major industrial and economic activities involving huge investments and provide of employment for lakhs of people.
The western belt of Tamil Nadu would account for a lion's share of the Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP), he added.
According to one analyst not wanting to be quoted told IANS: "The demand for Kongu Naadu can gain currency only when a major political party -- DMK or the AIADMK-takes it forward. While AIADMK has a strong position in the western belt -the BJP to a small extent -- the former will not be in a position to subscribe to Kongu Naadu concept."
He said agreeing to the Kongu Naadu concept will result in AIADMK suffering a vertical split.
"If the AIADMK is led by a single leader then it can take a position. But with the party led by two former Chief Ministers -- Coordinator O.Panneerselvam (Thevar community) and Joint Coordinator K.Palaniswami (Gounder community), the party will vertically split," the analyst said.
The split will pave the way for the ousted V.K.Sasikala, the close aide of AIADMK supremo and late Chief Minister J.Jayalalithaa to come back into the AIADMK.
"Palaniswami's influence will be restricted to the Gounder community and the faction under him will be restricted to the western region," the analyst added.
The DMK may be weak in some pockets of the western Tamil Nadu and that issue is being sorted out by the party by attracting leaders from other parties.
The bifurcation of Tamil Nadu will also have its negative impact on the BJP as it will be stamped as Gounder party and the anti-BJP sentiment will rage in other parts of Tamil Nadu.
"The BJP will have to suffer loss of its support base in other communities spread across Tamil Nadu," the analyst added.
Originally India had only 14 states and six union territories. Later more states and union territories were created for administrative convenience and due to people's demand, he said.
"It is true that the central government has the power to reorganise states without the consent of the states. But it has to be done for administrative reasons or on people's demand or for national security. There is no such necessity for the creation of Kongu Naadu," the analyst said.
The other major party in Tamil Nadu PMK, which had earlier demanded carving of the northern districts into a separate state where the Vanniyar community people are in large numbers, is remaining silent now.
Perhaps it does not want to subscribe to an issue authored by BJP and is waiting for its bigger ally AIADMK to voice its views.
Recently AIADMK's second line leader K.P.Munusamy without naming BJP said such bifurcation ideas are not good for the country.
The leader of NTK, the third largest party -based on vote share in the recent assembly polls -- Seeman said the country can be divided into 39 countries.
Instead of recovering Katchateevu from Sri Lanka and clarifying how the funds collected under the GST (Goods and Services Tax) are shared between the states, the BJP is talking about bifurcation of Tamil Nadu, Seeman said.
"What is to be cleared is whether BJP is raking up the Kongu Naadu as a counter to DMK's 'Ondriya Aarasu' and 'Jai Hind' issues which questions the integrity of the nation or is it serious," Seshadri said.
He also said during the past few days, the DMK leaders and supportive media have stopped using the term 'Ondriya Aarasu' to denote the central government.
Meanwhile the Tamil Nadu BJP itself is not clear on the issue. The views of the party's Tamil Nadu President and those above him in the hierarchy are to be taken into account and not those who are below them, pointed out another analyst.
For the BJP, the immediate focus will be the upcoming assembly elections in states like Uttar Pradesh and others.
"Further it has to get some seats from Tamil Nadu in the 2024 general elections. The bifurcation of Tamil Nadu will not only continue to rout the party in the state but would also have its impact on other states," an analyst said.
On the whole, the Kongu Naadu will be a rhetoric for BJP against DMK's rhetoric 'Ondriya Aarasu'. A slogan like 'Ondriya Aarasu' from a well developed state like Tamil Nadu will have its echo in other states as well.
"There are demands for bifurcation in other states like Maharashtra. The BJP should first satisfy those aspirations than dividing Tamil Nadu mainly for political reasons which in turn will be a self-defeating exercise," the analyst said.