Daijiworld Media Network – London

London, May 20: Sea level rise could become unmanageable even if global warming is capped at 1.5°C, warn scientists behind a new study. They say the threat of "catastrophic inland migration" looms large, with sea levels set to rise faster than countries can adapt.

The study reveals that ice loss from Greenland and Antarctica has quadrupled since the 1990s, making it the main cause of sea level rise. Even if emissions are cut rapidly, sea levels could still rise 1 cm annually by the century's end too fast for most coastal defences.

Currently, the world is headed for 2.5°C–2.9°C of warming, a level that could trigger irreversible ice sheet collapse. This would lead to a potential 12-metre rise in sea levels, displacing hundreds of millions of people. Already, 230 million live within 1 metre of sea level, and 1 billion within 10 metres.

The researchers said even 20 cm of rise by 2050 could cause at least $1 trillion in annual flood damages across 136 major coastal cities. The damage would be far worse in developing nations like Bangladesh compared to countries like the Netherlands.

“We’re watching worst-case scenarios begin to unfold,” said Prof Chris Stokes of Durham University, warning that current warming of 1.2°C is already driving rapid sea level rise.

The findings, published in Communications Earth and Environment, suggest a rise of at least 1–2 metres is now inevitable. Scientists stress that every fraction of a degree matters, as it buys time to prepare and reduces human suffering.

Prof Jonathan Bamber of the University of Bristol added, “A safe limit means we can adapt. Once sea level rise hits 1 cm a year, adaptation becomes nearly impossible.”

The study draws from past climate data, ice melt observations, and modelling. It concludes that even if CO2 is removed and temperatures return to pre-industrial levels, the damage will last for centuries — making sea level rise the most enduring impact of the climate crisis.