From Our Special Correspondent
Daijiworld Media Network - Bengaluru

Bengaluru, Apr 13: Even as the ruling Congress party as well as the opposition BJP and even JD(S) are boasting of securing a majority in the ensuing assembly elections in Karnataka, the India Today-Karvy Insights opinion poll predicts a hung assembly in the State.

The opinion poll conducted just over a month before the high-stakes election in the State claims that no party will gain absolute majority.

The biggest takeaway from the Karnataka opinion poll is that no single party is expected to reach the magic number of 112 in Karnataka's 224-member assembly.

The Congress, which is currently in power in Karnataka, can hope to win between 90 and 101 seats in the election, according to the opinion poll.

The BJP, which is hoping to oust Congress from yet another State, will win between 78 and 86 seats, the opinion poll shows.

Going by the India Today-Karvy Insights opinion poll, H D Deve Gowda's JD(S) will be the kingmaker in Karnataka.

The opinion poll predicts that JD(S) and its pre-poll alliance partner, BSP, may win between 34 and 43 seats.

In terms of vote share, Congress will get 37 per cent of votes, the BJP 35 per cent and the JD(S)-BSP likely to get 19 per cent, the opinion poll shows.

Compared to how things currently stand in the Karnataka Assembly, the Congress will see its seat-share fall while the BJP will see its numbers go up.

The improved performance of BJP, however, is not likely to ensure the saffron party of an outright win in the Karnataka Assembly election.

Silver Lining:

While the Congress will see its seat tally come down, there is a silver lining in store for the party: most in Karnataka want the JD(S)-BSP combine to lend its support to the Congress while 39 per cent want the JD(S)-BJP to tie up with the Congress in case of a hung Assembly and barely 29 per cent want the party to ally with BJP.

For the India Today-Karvy Insights opinion poll, a total of 27,919 interviews were conducted across all of Karnataka's 224 constituencies that will vote in the upcoming Assembly election on May 12. As many as 62 per cent of the interviews were in rural areas, the remaining in urban centres.

Other Key Takeaways

Congress Should Get Second Chance:

A substantial 45 per cent of votes feel that Siddaramaiah-led Congress government in Karnataka should be given another chance.

Support for giving the party a second chance is particularly high among Muslims (65 per cent).

Among Hindus 44 per cent feel Congress deserves a second chance. According to the caste-wise breakup, 55 per cent Kurubas and 53 per cent Dalits believe Congress should get a second chance. Only 37 per cent Lingayat and 36 per cent Brahmins believe the same.

Issues of Concern:

Unemployment seems to be the biggest issue of concern in Karnataka with 22 per cent of respondents saying it is an issue that concerns them the most.

Price rise, corruption and lack of access to drinking water are among the other top issues of concern, according to the India Today-Karvy Insights opinion poll.

Siddaramaiah’s Performance Card:

Chief Minister Siddaramaiah has scored fairly well after being in power for five years.

About 38 per cent of people have rated the performance of Siddaramaiah as very good or good while another 31 per cent have rated it average.

Only less than 30 per cent feel that Siddaramaiah's performance is not up to the mark.

The perception that Siddaramaiah's performance has been very good or good and is relatively weaker among the Vokkaliga, Lingayats and Brahmins.