Daijiworld Media Network - New Delhi (SD)

New Delhi, Apr 22: A modelling exercise by Times Network in partnership with global consulting firm Protiviti has predicted that the coronavirus could peak in India by mid-May.

Considering three different possibilities, the 'Times Fact India Outbreak Report' suggests that around May 22 India could see the number of coronavirus cases surge up to 75,000.

To predict the scenario, the team built three different models to analyze the progress in the number of cases in the coming days in different conditions. It also provided insights on how the government and health infrastructure could respond to the crisis.

The three models used for the study; the percentage model, the time series model and the Susceptible Exposed Infected Recovered (SEIR) model were used towards predicting India's trajectory.

While conducting the study, the time series model took into consideration data across time periods in China and South Korea, and adapted for the study prediction for India while the percentage model used trends on the spread of the virus across Italy and US. The SEIR model took into consideration the average number of people each positive person infects based on the estimation of the reproduction rate of the virus. Altogether, the three models produced six projections and an indication on when it could be safer to lift the lockdown.

Two scenarios present by the study show that the tally could fall to zero. It says that if the lockdown is extended beyond May 3, the reproduction rate of the virus could fall to 0.8, which means an infected person would be likely to infect another 0.8 person. The first scenario states that the cases are likely to fall to zero by September 15 if the lockdown is extended up to May 15, while the second scenario states that if the lockdown is extended up to May 30, cases are like to drop to zero by mid-June.