Will Jaya, Mamata Triumph over MK and Buddha?

Gabriel Vaz
Daijiworld Media Network - Bangalore

Bangalore, Apr 9: Will Mamata Banerjee succeed in her mission of dethroning the CPM-led Left Front and put an end to the 34-year dominance of Communists from West Bengal? Will another woman leader down south, the redoubtable Jayalalithaa manage to pack off the old warhorse M Karunanidhi in Tamil Nadu? And in Kerala, will another Communist leader V S Achutanandan, who is slightly older than all the main contenders, lead the Left to another victory?

These are the questions that must be uppermost in the minds of voters in the three states as well as people in rest of the country, when the three states go to polls on Wednesday, April 13.

While polling to the 140-member Kerala assembly and 234-member Tamil Nadu assembly would be completed next week, the 294-member West Bengal assembly would have to wait till May 10 for the completion of polling. However, all the three states, including the 126-member Assam assembly which will be finished with its polling on Monday, April 11, and the 30-member Union Territory of Pondicherry that will also go to polls on April 13, will have to wait till May 13 for knowing the outcome.

Incidentally, results of the by-elections for Karnataka’s three assembly constituencies of Channapatna, Jagalur and Bangarpet in Karnataka held on Saturday, April 9, will also be known on May 13.

Barring Kerala and Assam, the Congress party has no big stake in the five state assembly elections.  Going by media reports and feedback from those who took part in electioneering in Assam, Tarun Kumar Gogoi just might pull off an electoral victory.

However, the elections are crucial for the survival of the Congress party’s key allies in the UPA regime in Delhi like DMK in Tamil Nadu and Trinamool Congress West Bengal and, therefore, the results could well have national repercussions. This is definitely possible in the unlikely event of Mamata Banerjee and Karunanidhi suffering an adverse verdict. Fortunately for the UPA top brass, its principal rival BJP has hardly any presence or even electoral allies in any of the five states.

In Tamil Nadu, the Congress party has become totally dependent on either of the Dravidian parties AIADMK or DMK for its political survival since the last few decades. The DMK has remained a trusted ally of Congress both at the national level and in the State.

Though the octogenarian DMK patriarch Karunanidhi, who used to dominate the Tamil film, literary and political scene like a colossus for decades, is no longer the old warhorse that he was, he still calls the shots in the State despite his frail health.

The rivalry among his sons, M K Stalin and M K Azhagiri and daughter Kannimozhli is such that, Karunanidhi is not in a position to make a graceful exit from the hustle-bustle of politics and was left with little choice but to contest the assembly polls.

Indeed, Karunanidhi’s weakened political clout could be gauged from the way Congress boss and the real power behind the UPA regime Sonia Gandhi successfully forced him to give in to her demands. Of course, the 2G spectrum scam and the involvement of DMK’s A Raja, who had to resign as Union Communication Minister and was arrested following a CBI case, and the questioning of Kannimozhli by CBI, had greatly dented Karunanidhi’s image.

In fact, when Karunanidhi threatened to pull out all his DMK ministers from the UPA at the impasse over the number of three extra seats demanded by Congress, Sonia remained adamant and refused to budge forcing the former to relent.

Significantly, the biggest challenge for DMK and Karunanidhi and by implication to Sonia Gandhi is AIADMK supremo Jayalalithaa.

Given the fact that Tamil Nadu voters generally tend to switch their loyalties from election to election, Jaya could still upset Karunanidhi’s pet project of handing over the reigns of power to his children before retiring from politics.

Jaya, incidentally, has become so much more confident this time round that she conveniently allowed her trusted ally and gifted orator Vaiko’s MDMK in favour of the more popular cine actor Vijayakant’s DMDK.
Clearly, the electoral battle in Tamil Nadu will be woman power led by Jaya’s AIADMK and aged warhorse Karunanidhi’s DMK. Neither Sonia Gandhi nor Karunanidhi’s daughter Kannimozhli are unlikely to make much of a difference to DMK front’s fortunes.

The story is almost similar in Left-dominated West Bengal. The fiery Union Railway Minister Mamata Banerjee, who is more popular as Didi among her supporters, admirers and political opponents alike, is causing sleepless nights to the CPM-led Left Front through her Trinamool Congress. If Sonia Gandhi could browbeat and force a veteran like Karunanidhi to yield to her demands, neither the Congress boss nor her trusted aide like Union Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee were able to push the Didi.

Mamata clearly won the battle of will-power in her tussle with Sonia and compelled the latter to accept her terms. The only concession that Mamata generously conceded was to allot a seat more than demanded.
Didi is out to put an end to the hegemony of the Marxists who have ruled the State for the longest duration since 1977 winning in successive elections in a democratic country like India.

Of course, the popularity of the Communists and left ideology owes a lot to the dynamic and visionary leadership of the redoubtable Jyoti Basu, who died last year at the ripe old age of 96 and had ruled the State for the longest duration and also the misrule of the Congress leaders in the past.

Had Jyoti Basu wanted and his CPM comrades agreed, he would have become the country’s Prime Minister and perhaps changed the course of history. When Jyoti Basu chose to call it a day due to ill-health, he was succeeded by another veteran like the affable Buddhadev Bhattacharya. And the 67-year-old Buddha is now forced to fight the anti-incumbency factor and Didi to ensure that CPM’s 34-year-long hold over Bengal is not broken.

Though the Congress party has stalwarts like Union Defence Minister A K Antony and Union Civil Aviation and Overseas Indian Affairs Minister Vayalar Ravi and Oomen Chandy are the most prominent leaders in Kerala.

But they are unlikely to make much of a big electoral difference in the State, whose politics is driven by the Communists and other Castes/Communities including Christian church.

Among the tallest Congress leaders was K Karunakaran, who recently died at the 93. Known as `Leader,’ Karunakaran had been in and out of Congress like Karnataka’s Bangarappa – though not as controversial. Unfortunately, Karunakaran’s sons or daughter could not make it big in politics despite the helping hand from the father.

However, the Communists will be lucky if they manage to return to power. The Chief Minister V S Achutanandan, who will be 88 in coming October and therefore slightly older than Karunanidhi though more healthier, enjoys considerable popularity in the State because of his clean image and no-nonsense approach. What might hurt the Communist-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) led by Achutananandan in Kerala and give a shot in the arm for the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is the uncertainty over the next chief minister in view of the controversy over denial of ticket to Achutanandan.