Will Yeddy Survive or State in for Political Uncertainty?
By Gabriel Vaz
Daijiworld Media Network - Bangalore
Bangalore, May 13: As if in anticipation of an adverse judgement from the Supreme Court on the disqualification of the 16 MLAs, including 5 independents, on Friday, May 13, Karnataka Chief Minister B S Yeddyurappa convened an emergency meeting of his cabinet in the morning in an obvious bid to pre-empt any moves by Governor H R Bhardhwaj for his Government’s dismissal and decided to convene a 10-day session of the State Legislature from Monday, May 16.
The 10-day State Legislature has been convened ostensibly to get the budget proposals for the year 2011-12 passed even though the Government had time for another two and half months till the end of July to do so as it had obtained a four-month vote on account.
True to the Yeddyurappa regime’s worst case scenario, the apex court has nullified the disqualification of the 16 MLAs and thereby reduced the contrived majority secured by it if the MLAs continue to rigidly stick to their demand for change of leadership. In the process, the ruling BJP was deprived of the opportunity to celebrate its feat of winning all the 3 seats – originally held by Congress and JD(S) -- in the April 9 by-elections, whose results were announced on Friday.
Though the 5 independents, who have succeeded in their attempt to retain their assembly membership after valiantly fighting the machinations of a pliant Speaker K G Bopaiah and Chief Minister Yeddyurappa, are not obliged to change their stance, the case of the 11 BJP MLAs is entirely different.
However, the 11 BJP MLAs, who incurred the wrath of Yeddyurappa and were disqualified by the Speaker for daring to go to Raj Bhavan and submitting a memorandum demanding change of the Chief Minister, had been consistently maintaining the position that they were and still are members of the ruling BJP and that their disqualification was done arbitrarily without following the due process of law. The apex court has apparently upheld their contention even though full details of the judgement are not yet available. If these 11 BJP MLAs, who turned against Yeddyurappa, still stick to their position, the Chief Minister will be in trouble.
But the big question that must be engaging the attention of almost everybody is: How does the Supreme Court’s verdict impact Yeddyurappa? Will he be forced to quit? Or will he still manage to survive like the proverbial Cat’s Nine Lives?
Not just that. Other questions that must puzzling ordinary the politically uninitiated are: What are the implications of the decision of the emergency meeting of the State Cabinet in convening the Legislature session from Monday, May 16? How will it help Yeddyurappa?
It is doubtful whether the party will heed the demands of 11 anti-Yeddyurappa MLAs and go in for a change of guard or issue whips to them to toe the party line in rallying behind the man who has somehow managed to win the support of BJP national president Nitin Gadkari. The stand of the 11 MLAs is, therefore, more crucial. Yeddyurappa, who has managed to win the backing of most of his detractors who had turned against him at different points of time during the last three years and also the backing of the National President, can be expected to turn on his charms and `persuasive efforts’ by offering the lucre of money or office to bring them round. He might even make a last ditch attempt to win over the 5 independents and convince them to forget the bitter past. After all, there are no permanent enemies or friends in politics.
Alternatively, the Chief Minister and the ruling party can be expected to resort to further experiments of the controversial ``Operation Kamala” to lure ``friendly” MLAs from Congress or JD(S) to resign their seats and artificially increase the ruling party’s strength by reducing the number of opposition members. Having learnt the tricks and art of survival during the last three years, Yeddyurappa can certainly be expected to hold on to power by hook or crook if other ``methods’’ do not work.
That brings us to the question of why the sudden decision to convene the State Legislature session. Apparently, the Chief Minister must have got an inkling of the adverse nature of the judgement and must have been advised by his strategists and legal eagles to summon the Legislature Session to get the budget proposals passed and thereby pre-empt the Governor from sending a fresh recommendation to the Centre recommending the Government’s dismissal as the Chief Minister will be reduced to a minority following the Supreme Court’s verdict, if all other conditions remain the same.
Given the fact the passing of budget proposals, which are nothing but money bills, can be regarded as a measure to prove the Government’s majority and the Supreme Court’s historical judgement in the S R Bommai case mandating the floor test as the criteria to decide the majority, Yeddyurappa must have been advised to immediately summon the State Legislature session. This ploy not only pre-empts the Governor from taking any foolhardy or hasty decisions, it also prevents the opposition Congress or JD(S), especially the former chief minister and State JD(S) President H D Kumaraswamy, from herding the 16 MLAs in resorts and thereby denying an opportunity to Yeddyurappa to turn on his persuasive charms.
All in all, Yeddyurappa seems to be determined to save his skin and power. Will he succeed and survive to last the full term or least finish the completion of three years of his rule at the end of this month is the big question. There is also the distinct possibility of dissolution of the State Assembly or another bout of President’s rule under Bhardhwaj if no viable alternatives could be found.