Daijiworld Media Network - New Delhi
New Delhi, Apr 30: Poor households in India have received a significant respite as the year-on-year inflation rates based on the all-India consumer price index for agricultural labourers (CPI-AL) and rural labourers (CPI-RL) for March this year witnessed a substantial decline, easing to 3.73 per cent and 3.86 per cent, respectively. This is a notable decrease compared to the corresponding rates of 7.15 per cent and 7.08 per cent recorded in March 2024, according to data released by the Ministry of Labour and Employment on Wednesday.
The moderation in the upward pressure on prices was also evident when compared to the previous month of February, where the CPI-AL stood at 4.05 per cent and the CPI-RL at 4.61 per cent.
The inflation rate for agricultural and rural labourers has shown a consistent downward trend over the past six months. This development offers welcome relief to these vulnerable segments of the population, who are disproportionately affected by rising prices. The easing of inflation translates to more disposable income, potentially enabling them to purchase a wider range of essential goods and improve their overall living standards.
The decline in inflation for farm and rural workers aligns with a broader trend of easing retail inflation across the country. Overall retail inflation fell to 3.34 per cent in March this year, compared to the same month last year, marking the lowest level since August 2019, as per figures released earlier this month by the Ministry of Statistics.
Food inflation during March also slowed significantly to 2.69 per cent, representing the lowest level since November 2021.
According to an official statement, the substantial decline in both headline and food inflation during March 2025 is primarily attributed to a decrease in the inflation of key food items such as vegetables, eggs, pulses, meat and fish, cereals, and milk.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee has also acknowledged the declining trend in retail inflation, revising its inflation forecast for the fiscal year 2025-26 downwards to 4 per cent from the earlier projection of 4.2 per cent. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra stated last week that the “outlook for food inflation has turned decisively positive.”
The RBI Governor noted, “Headline inflation moderated during January-February 2025 following a sharp correction in food inflation. The outlook for food inflation has turned decisively positive. The uncertainties regarding rabi crops have abated considerably, and the second advance estimates point to a record wheat production and higher production of key pulses over that last year.”
He further observed that, coupled with robust kharif arrivals, this is expected to pave the way for a sustained softening of food inflation.
“The sharp decline in inflation expectations in our latest survey for three months and one year ahead would also help anchor inflation expectations, going ahead,” he pointed out.
Furthermore, the fall in crude oil prices presents a favorable outlook for inflation. However, the RBI Governor cautioned that lingering global market uncertainties and the potential for adverse weather-related supply disruptions pose upside risks to the inflation trajectory.