Daijiworld Media Network - Beijing

Beijing, Jan 14: China registered a record trade surplus of nearly USD 1.2 trillion in 2025, government data released on Wednesday showed, underscoring the crucial role of exports in sustaining the country’s economic growth amid weakening domestic demand and slowing shipments to the United States.

According to customs data cited by the Associated Press, China’s exports rose 5.5 per cent year-on-year to USD 3.77 trillion in 2025, while imports remained largely flat at USD 2.58 trillion. This pushed the trade surplus to a new high, up sharply from USD 992 billion recorded in 2024.

Exports gained further momentum in December, rising 6.6 per cent in dollar terms compared to a year earlier, beating economists’ expectations and improving on November’s 5.9 per cent growth. Imports in December also picked up, increasing 5.7 per cent year-on-year, compared with a modest 1.9 per cent rise in the previous month.

Although exports to the United States have dropped significantly following President Donald Trump’s return to office and a renewed escalation of the US-China trade war, China has managed to offset much of the impact through stronger shipments to South America, Southeast Asia, Africa and Europe.

Strong export performance has helped China keep its annual economic growth close to the official target of around 5 per cent. However, several countries have raised concerns over the impact of low-cost Chinese imports on their domestic industries.

Last month, the International Monetary Fund urged Beijing to address structural imbalances in its economy and accelerate a shift away from export-led growth by boosting domestic consumption and investment.

At home, China continues to grapple with a prolonged downturn in the property sector, triggered by a crackdown on excessive borrowing and a wave of developer defaults. The slump has weighed heavily on consumer confidence and domestic spending.

Outlook for 2026

Despite persistent trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties, economists expect exports to remain a key growth driver for China in 2026.

“We continue to expect exports to act as a big growth driver in 2026,” said Jacqueline Rong, chief China economist at BNP Paribas.

Gary Ng, senior economist at French investment bank Natixis, said he expects China’s trade surplus to remain above USD 1 trillion this year, with exports likely to grow by around 3 per cent in 2026.