Panaji, Feb 13 (TOI): If you ask any political party, they will tell you that they will be in a position of strength to form the next government. Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has claimed they will win 26 seats, Congress feel they will get 23, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has made positive claims of their own and the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP) has made no secret that they cannot be ignored when forming the next government.

But word on the street, at tintos and in the market place is completely different. Eight days after Goa went to polls, there is no clarity. It is still the "silent voter" who holds the key and the "silent voter" has not given any indication which side the wind is blowing.

That has left political parties in a fix. Everyone is wondering whether it will be a hung assembly. Will the BJP ride the anti-incumbency factor to win again? Will a resurgent Congress surpass its own tally? What about the independents? And if they get elected, who will they back?

There are no easy answers with each party making their own assertion. Of particular importance is the stand of the ruling BJP, especially in the light of the high voter turnout. According to BJP general secretary Sadanand Shet Tanavde, the high turnout was to give BJP a clear mandate.

Many, though, doubt Tanavde's claim. Rebel RSS leader Subhash Velingkar, for example, has been scathing in his criticism of the BJP and believes it's only a matter of time before the ruling party bites the dust.

"I have never seen such anger against any party, the way it was against the BJP. People wanted to punish the party leaders for taking them for a ride," said Velingkar, who damaged the image of top BJP leaders more than anyone else this election year.

Velingkar's anger towards the BJP is understandable, but does he have a point?

What went wrong for BJP?

The government's slew of schemes and doles may have earned solid support but anger against the party was strong elsewhere. BJP's backtracking on some key issues ranging from special status and recovery of illegal mining loot to unemployment doles of Rs 4,500 per month and zero tolerance to corruption irked voters, poll watchers say. Demonetization, despite official bravado, was also a factor, particularly in rural areas.

"Polling day was payback time for the common man who suffered miserably. We had to stand in queues instead of going to work and even then we were unsure of withdrawing Rs 2,000. Worse still, the government said people didn't suffer and tourism was not affected," a voter said.

MGP leader and chief ministerial candidate, Ramkrishna 'Sudin' Dhavalikar, also appeared to have had enough of the BJP. "We had never seen such arrogance of their workers," he said.

Other factors

National issues also weighed on people's minds before they decided who gets their vote.

"Intolerance, interference and control of several institutes and organisations; diluting democratic values; curbs and controls and overemphasis of ultra-patriotism are among the factors also considered by discerning voter," said Sahitya Akademi awardee and writer Dilip Borkar

Locally, too, there were factors that didn't seem to work in favour of the government. The mining corridor in the Sanguem-Quepem belt never saw the light of day, assurances of jobs to party workers didn't realize and the denial of ticket to sports minister Ramesh Tawadkar - incidentally close to Velingkar - led to antagonism among tribals in the Canacona-Quepem-Sanguem belt.

What about positives?

BJP went to town with their progress on infrastructure. There is no doubt that Parrikar initiated several infrastructural projects which were completed during the Laxmikant Parsekar regime. The government also initiated projects like the Electronic City at Tuem, facility for manufacture of helicopter parts and fast tracked Mopa airport, all to generate employment. A lot many jobs were created in the public sector too. Sports got a boost as well with football in particular reaping the benefits after Parrikar declared it the state sport and provided Rs 5 crore annually to the Goa Football Development Council.

Chief minsiter Laxmikant Parsekar said that BJP gave a stable government, worked for all sections of society, brought in infrastructural facilities, initiated major steps for state's development expressing confidence of getting people's mandate again.

The games BJP played

BJP was quick to sense the mood was against the party. Admitting Congress MLAs Mauvin Godinho and Pandurang Madkaikar - who Parrikar had, in the past, alleged were corrupt - into the BJP fold was a sure sign of weakness but just a clever ploy to neutralize the impact on polls, analysts say. Except for a couple of occasions when he was left with no choice but rush to Delhi, Parrikar stayed put in Goa for the entire election month. BJP needed him more than ever and the defence minister was touted as a possible chief minister, "if the MLAs want", by National BJP president Amit Shah. Parrikar's secular image, analysts say, was needed to convince fence-sitters to stick with the BJP.

Backroom management

Poll watchers say that BJP leaders backed, though subtly, some independents and candidates from smaller political parties. Speculation was rife that these were identified barely 3-4 days before the polls to transfer votes from other independents/regional party candidates and even from BJP cadre in the particular constituency to a "winnable independent". The focus was clear: ensure that the tally of Congress/MGP-GSM doesn't go up. And the independents, of course, will side with the BJP during government formation.

Strategic voting

Strategic voting too is not ruled out in some constituencies. Voters who earlier didn't have any love for the Congress eventually voted for the 'Hand' because they didn't want BJP in power. Ditto with extreme right-wing voters, who were inclined towards the MGP-GSM combine but put their trust in the 'Lotus', though on a smaller scale, in a clear attempt to keep Congress - with MGP backing - away.

What about the Congress?

The entry of AAP remains an important factor. A new entrant, AAP made a bright beginning since the day Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal addressed a massive rally in the city in May 2016 but lost steam closer to the elections. There was clear resentment against the ruling party but at a time when AAP made all the right noises, Congress simply remained a mute spectator, allowing AAP to eat into their vote share.

"If Congress fails, their leaders are to be blamed. They allowed a golden opportunity to slip away. They completely lacked the killer sting and worked as if elections were a month away. If the BJP wins handsomely, they would have to thank the Congress leaders who showed more aggression against their like-minded parties than the BJP," said a poll watcher.

Final word

Despite all that is being said about the BJP, the party could still be in a position of power to form the government. The BJP rules at the Centre and past experiences show that the party which runs the central government stands a better chance of forming the government in states, provided they emerge as the single largest party. For BJP, it's a long wait till March 11.