India to grow at 7.7 per cent in 2018-19: IMF


Washington, May 9 (PTI): India's growth is expected to rebound to 7.2 per cent in the 2017–18 fiscal and 7.7 per cent in 2018-19 after disruptions caused by demonetisation, the IMF said today, while recommending the removal of long-standing structural bottlenecks to enhance market efficiency.

The temporary disruptions (primarily to private consumption) caused by cash shortages accompanying the currency exchange initiative are expected to gradually dissipate in 2017 as cash shortages ease, the International Monetary Fund said in its regional economic outlook.

Such disruptions would also be offset by tailwinds from a favourable monsoon season and continued progress in resolving supply-side bottlenecks, the IMF said. The investment recovery is expected to remain modest and uneven across sectors as deleveraging takes place and industrial capacity utilisation picks up, it noted.

"In India, growth is projected to rebound to 7.2 per cent in FY2017–18 and further to 7.7 per cent in FY2018–19," the IMF said. "Headwinds from weaknesses in India’s bank and corporate balance sheets will also weigh on near-term credit growth. Confidence and policy credibility gains, including from continued fiscal consolidation and anti-inflationary monetary policy, continue to underpin macroeconomic stability,” the IMF said.

According to the report, growth in Asia is forecast to accelerate to 5.5 per cent in 2017 from 5.3 per cent in 2016. Growth in China and Japan is revised upward for 2017 compared to the October 2016 World Economic Outlook, owing mainly to continued policy support and strong recent data.

Growth is revised downward in India due to temporary effects from the currency exchange initiative and in South Korea owing to political uncertainty. Over the medium term, slower growth in China is expected to be partially offset by an acceleration of growth in India, underpinned by key structural reforms.

According to the report, in India, improving productivity in the agriculture sector, which is the most labour-intensive sector and employs about half of Indian workers, remains a key challenge. More needs to be done to address long-standing structural bottlenecks and enhance market efficiency, including from liberalising commodity markets to giving farmers more flexibility in the distribution and marketing of their produce, which will help raise competitiveness, efficiency, and transparency in state agriculture markets, it said.

In addition, input subsidies to farmers should be administered through direct cash transfers rather than underpricing of agricultural inputs, as such subsidies to the agriculture sector have had large negative impacts on agricultural output, IMF said.

 

  

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Comment on this article

  • SB, Mlore

    Tue, May 09 2017

    Some are claiming real eatates market is down. Dolt Slates don't know it was already artificially inflated . If real estate falls,middle class chances of purchase increases. Real estate market will be regulated.

    DisAgree Agree [4] Reply Report Abuse

  • Flavian, Mangalore/Kuwait

    Tue, May 09 2017

    The greatest Guru,

    Can yoou produce any comments that I have ever used in filthy words against our PM?
    Please do not mix up matters and victimize me for your faults.

    DisAgree [5] Agree [5] Reply Report Abuse

  • MN, Mangalore

    Tue, May 09 2017

    " Few Indians" might have lost the vision.. Either pretend to be blind or really blind !

    DisAgree [1] Agree [10] Reply Report Abuse

  • ravi, mangalore

    Tue, May 09 2017

    Expected rise in GDP/Growth is Less Important, Ground Realities expose Indian economy remains on shaky stand
    IMF working for economy Growth, if he tell truth no country will shake his hand

    DisAgree [5] Agree [6] Reply Report Abuse

  • geoffrey, hat hill

    Tue, May 09 2017

    All it takes is Demonetization-2 to bring it down to 5%. What if little bit inconvenience to the common man? One has to consider the bigger picture of benefit to wilful defaulters.

    DisAgree [6] Agree [2] Reply Report Abuse

  • Flavian, Mangalore/Kuwait

    Tue, May 09 2017

    @ Guru,

    Not good to make such comments.
    You could be held resposible for spreading such baseless, defamatory and irrelevant comments.

    "IMF is an international organization headquartered in Washington, D.C., of "189 countries working to foster global monetary cooperation, secure financial stability, facilitate ... Wikipedia"

    DisAgree [6] Agree [8] Reply Report Abuse

  • The Guru, Mangalore

    Tue, May 09 2017

    Flavian, Mangalore/Kuwait

    Please find the complaint, until and unless I have freedom of Expression no one can file a case against me...

    When you can use words against sitting PM of India, then I can use the words what I want to comment on any topic... If you are not arrested for using filthy words against PM, then I cannot be arrested as well

    Note: Just read the comments if you are supporter of our Indian PM, and this is what will be the comments if our PM said the same.

    DisAgree [5] Agree [12] Reply Report Abuse

  • The Guru, Mangalore

    Tue, May 09 2017

    Data is incorrect and Modi is forcing IMF to publish wrong data :-)

    The people who prepared the reports are sanghis or Bhakts and they where given money by Adani and Ambani to give wrong data and to fool the people of the world

    DisAgree [11] Agree [15] Reply Report Abuse

  • PAM Suvarna, karla

    Tue, May 09 2017

    You are right dear Guru,

    Modi haters may include some more points as
    1)Press printing machines are tampered!! like EVM machines!!!
    2) Press drafting man was colluded with modi to publish wrong report
    3) IMF is working under influence of Modi !!!!!!
    Etc etc etc.

    DisAgree [7] Agree [14] Reply Report Abuse

  • Sachidanand Shetty, Mundkur/Dubai

    Tue, May 09 2017

    This kind of report will not be fully digested by our anti NDA or BJP supporters....so as usual....we can seen less comments

    DisAgree [6] Agree [12] Reply Report Abuse

  • Gangaram, Moodbidri

    Tue, May 09 2017

    Forget this, Did you accepted Siddu is NO. 1 CM in India and Karnataka No.1 in development under congress, as jaitley himself awarded to CM Siddu.

    NDA told they will create 2 crores jobs did they created jobs?? how many ? do you have any figures?

    Day day dreaming ........

    DisAgree [10] Agree [8] Reply Report Abuse

  • Sachidanand Shetty, Mundkur/Dubai

    Tue, May 09 2017

    Do you know award given for what? It's not for CM....It's for our State for one of the reason.....

    DisAgree [4] Agree [11] Reply Report Abuse

  • Dinesh, Dubai

    Tue, May 09 2017

    Gangaram, Moodbidri
    Did you accept Karanataka is no. corrupt state in india..

    DisAgree [5] Agree [7] Reply Report Abuse

  • j.anata, mangaluru / bengaluru

    Tue, May 09 2017

    K'Nataka is MOST CORRUPT State in India, voted last month by popular private survey

    DisAgree [1] Agree Reply Report Abuse


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