Daijiworld Media Network - Bengaluru
Bengaluru, Oct 11: A detailed analysis of coronavirus data across India has revealed that even when other states will have ceased with cases, Karnataka will continue to record a rise in cases by around 23% by November.
Furthermore, the study revealed that of the five-most infected states, which includes Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh and Karnataka, only the latter will see a rise in the number of infections, a report by Deccan Herald stated.
The data findings further highlighted that the upcoming Dasara and Diwali festivals will be adding 80,000 fresh corona infections to the active case count.
The analysis was carried out by Dr Shashank Shah, a researcher at Harvard University’s Southeast Asia Institute, Dr Dave Richards, co-founder of the Innovation Lab at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and Dr Subramanian Sivakumar whose firm, Pratian Technologies, a research and development startup in Whitefield, developed the model which was key to the analysis.
"The 7% jump in cases due the festive season will show up as a significant spike," explained Dr Sivakumar, who added that the festivals will also add about 4 lac active cases to India’s overall Covid-19 caseload. India will have overall 20 lac cases added by November 15.
Meanwhile, the detailed study has also found that there will be no peak in sight for Karnataka, at least for the next three weeks.
Amid this alarming news which lies ahead for Karnataka, Dr Sivakumar added that there is a silver lining to the state's plight. "The mortality rate will reduce from 1.42% at present to 1.33% on October 23," he said.
Dr T Jacob John, the virologist and former professor at the Christian Medical College, Vellore, maintained that cases were dropping in many of the previously worst infected states such as Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Delhi, Tamil Nadu and even Uttar Pradesh, which he described as 'unbelievable.'
"I do not know what is driving the rise in numbers in Karnataka, but to compare its epidemic with that of Kerala or Tamil Nadu would be like comparing apples and oranges. There is a diverse kaleidoscope of factors which dictate how the epidemic progresses in each state, district or locality, such as prevention measures, testing and surveillance," he said.
The short-term predictive analysis indicates that Maharashtra will experience a 17% reduction in active cases over the next two weeks, along with an increased recovery rate, from 78% to 83%. "Peaking is a function of how many active cases there are," Dr Sivakumar said.
On the other hand, the state of Andhra Pradesh will see 40% fewer active cases in coming weeks, coupled with a 94% recovery rate. In Tamil Nadu, the decline will be at 3%. Uttar Pradesh which has nine districts where mortality rates are 25% above the national average, is expected to see a 38% drop in active cases.