By Arun Kumar
Washington, Jun 16 (IANS): With India and China leading, Asia's economy will be as large as that of the US and Europe, accounting for more than a third of global output in the next five years, the IMF projects.
"China and India are leading the way, but the phenomenon is by no means limited to these two countries," writes Anoop Singh, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) director for the Asia and Pacific, in the Finance & Development Magazine released Tuesday.
Underlining the region's emergence as a global economic powerhouse as it leads the way out of global recession, he says "Asia's economic importance is unmistakable and palpable".
"Based on expected trends, within five years Asia's economy, including Australia and New Zealand, will be about 50 percent larger than it is today in purchasing-power-parity terms, account for more than a third of global output, and be comparable in size to the economies of the United States and Europe."
By 2030, Asian gross domestic product (GDP) will exceed that of the Group of Seven major industrial economies (G-7), Singh says, suggesting Asia is moving into a leadership role in the world economy.
"It is only natural, then, for Asia's voice to become increasingly influential in global economic and financial discourse," he says, noting already, six of the Group of 20 major economies (G-20) are from the Asia-Pacific region.
Asia accounts for just over 20 percent of IMF voting shares, and this is certain to rise as the IMF pursues reforms to bring countries' voting shares more closely in line with their role in the world economy, Singh predicts.
Although Asia was not heavily exposed to the kinds of toxic securities that caused problems elsewhere, the region is an important participant in world trade, and its exports were hurt by the collapse in demand from advanced economies.
"The impact of the external shock was mitigated for countries with large domestic demand bases, such as China, India, and Indonesia, and some of the commodity producers, such as Australia, but the more export-oriented economies experienced particularly sharp downturns," he noted.
But "Asia's time has come", says Singh noting "its role in the world economy continues to grow-both in world trade and finance and in economic governance, through institutions such as the IMF - and it will grow further".