By Antony Cony D'Souza, Karkala

Mangaluru, Feb 4: Assembly Elections are round the corner in five states – Goa, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Manipur.

Goa : 40 constituencies, voting on February 4, 2017. Single phase.
Punjab : 117 constituencies, voting on February 4, 2017. Single phase.
Uttarakhand : 70 constituencies, voting on February 15, 2017. Single phase.
Manipur : 60 constituencies, voting on March 4 and 8 respectively. Two phases.
Uttar Pradesh: 403 constituencies. voting on February 11,15, 19, 23, 27, March 4 and 8. Seven phases.

Counting of votes for all States (all phases) on March 11, 2017.

Every political party has a ‘number’ game to play. Each party’s assumptions are running high.

BJP had some thumping victories in Mumbai and Chandigarh municipal elections and also won almost every poll country wide, post the note ban. That made party president Amit Shah to declare that it is a “stamp of approval” for Narendra Modi’s demonetisation decision. In the past, Shah’s predictions have gone utterly wrong when he claimed that BJP would get two-thirds majority in Delhi and Bihar.

State elections have their own flavour to be tasted and tested. Local issues are dominated. However, this time along with the local issues, demonetisation music will be played in the background. Note ban might take a twist for the worst in villages or towns, especially among the masses who suffered day and night at the hands of bankers and ATM machines. Although BJP leaders claim that Modi has created a ‘pro-poor’ image for himself by taking an ‘anti-rich’ position, it is difficult to judge the mood among the masses about its adverse results. People might not have forgotten demonetisation's impacts like pain, distress, agony and deaths. The voters may reflect the bad news to BJP. However, in the long run, people might forget all the suffered if they are practically experiencing the real benefits from demonetisation. If so, PM Modi might reap good results by winning the 2019 parliamentary elections.

Although I am not a political pundit, my guess is, the assembly elections results may not bring good news to BJP.

In Goa, AAP may form the government with or without Congress' support. BJP could take the 2nd place.

In Punjab, AAP and alliance may form the government. BJP might be pushed to the second place.

In Uttarakhand, Congress looks divided, but is expected to run neck to neck with BJP. Congress may win the race in the end.

Manipur may go for a change by rejecting both Congress and BJP. Local leader, Iron Lady of Manipur ‘Irom Chanu Sharmila’ might definitely make an impact in the upcoming elections as she has decided to contest the polls.

In UP, BJP had won 72 seats out of 80 in General Elections earlier, but Assembly elections are something really different. The Akilesh-Congress alliance along with RJD or with SP’s parental party may join together to keep BJP at bay. The impact of BSP's Mayawati cannot be ignored too.

When we speak about Assembly or parliamentary elections, a name goes synonymous with it. The man of innovation, election strategist Prashant Kishor. His several novel methods and slogans brought Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar into the limelight in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections and assembly elections respectively. 'Chai pe Charcha' and catchy slogans 'Har Har Modi, Ghar Ghar Modi', 'Abki baar Modi Sarkar', 'Ek Bharat, Shresth Bharat', 'Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas' and 'Achhe Din' played a huge role in catapulting Modi to the PM's post. For Nitish, he coined a few slogans like 'Parcha pe Charcha', 'Har Ghar Dastak' and 'Baahri banaam Bihari' (referring the Modi-Amit Shah combine versus Nitish-Lalu) was the clincher.

With two grand successes to his credit, can he bring good luck to Congress? He has been entrusted with the most difficult job ever - an image makeover of Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi, a Nehru-Gandhi scion who is struggling to counter the perception of being a reluctant or stubborn leader who is not able to turn the fortunes of Congress, either in the poll-bound states or in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. PM Modi and Nitish were receptive and had shown much patience to digest Kishor’s incites and innovations, but Rahul is persistently stubborn being a Nehru-Gandhi scion. Kishor’s unique initiate for Congress in UP ‘Khaat Sabah’ failed on the inaugural day of 2500 long Kisan Yatra. People of UP have forgotten what Rahul had said, but not forgotten about the fight for 'Khaat' and the decamping of wodden 'charpai’ by the local villagers. In UP, Kishor has been replaced by Raj Babbar. Kishor has been entrusted with election strategy in Uttarakhand with chances evenly balanced.

Inducements

During any elections, ‘Inducement’ comes under Election Commission’s close watch list. During election, the most common drug used by most of the politicians is ‘Inducement’. There could be many definitions about inducement on board, but according to me it is just a corrupt practice inclined deliberately to deceive the electorate process. Ghost of ‘Inducement’ does not exist during non-election days, but comes to a full circle during elections, dies soon after the election and shows its ugly head prior to the next election.

Inducement and political intimidation are characteristic dimensions of any election campaigns. The commonly targeted folks are the rural demography. It does not matter to which party politicians belong, but the intentions and rules of their games are similar. Corrupt practices to disillusion the voters with their naked lies. Almost all politicians before election promise things like real development of the entire village’s infrastructure and changing it into a cosmopolitan city. But soon after the election, people's cries will be subjugated. These politicians will take no pride in their party and dishonesty runs in their veins.

Generally speaking, I feel there are three types of inducements commonly practiced by every political parties. The first one is to appease the poor, uneducated and unfortunate ones with gifts of time bound goodies like alcohol, offering bribes, free distribution of saris, food articles, entertainment etc. Election Commission-appointed surveillance and expenditure monitoring teams have recovered over Rs 64 crore in cash, including Rs 56.04 crore from Uttar Pradesh alone, and liquor and drugs worth over Rs 8 crore from the five poll-bound states.

Second one is religion based. Garnering votes on the basis of ‘faith of the majority’, inducing seeds of communal hatred to incite communal violence by raking up communal issues like Ram Mandir and referendum of sorts on triple talaq and so on.

The third one is politically induced. For an instance, in a first, the union government presented the budget on February 1 just prior to the assembly elections due on February 4. Traditionally, the budget is convened on the last day of February. Here, presenting the budget just before the election is gauged as an inducement. Sixteen opposition political parties had written to President Pranab Mukherjee and the CEC claiming that the move to advance the budget is an indirect move to hold sway in the upcoming Assembly elections. An appeasing budget could be an inducement prior to elections.

The Ram Mandir issue is almost three decades old. This project is deliberately kept unresolved to rake it up during each elections as an election manifesto. For the first time, Triple Talaq has risen as an election manifesto in UP. I do not understand why political parties are really interested in talaq issue prior to elections. Probably, triple talaq could be a silent strategy to garner some votes from the non-traditional voters by dividing their community on gender basis? Does a developing India for its real development require Mandir and triple talaq issues as an election manifesto? It is quite surprising why the Election Commission does not object and stop completely such manifestos. Election manifestos must talk about the programmes of welfare for the people and must stop manifestos instilling communal violence between its subjects ‘to divide and rule’.

Inducement or electoral fraud is a serious issue which can involve criminal offences. Most of us are aware about different forms of inducements. First and foremost being offering bribes or vote buying. This is a very dangerous predicament on elections. Even if someone has a good candidate in his mind, after accepting bribe he will vote for money and not for the right candidate. Therefore, offence of bribery includes where someone directly or indirectly offers bribe in order to induce the voter to vote or not to vote. Here, bribery is not an act of charity, but a corrupt intent to buy the voter. Many are induced with food, drinks, clothes and entertainment which is not an act of hospitality but hijacking someone's conscience in their favour. Many a time, people come across harassment or under influence to vote or to refrain from voting. Undue influence may not be exercised by physical access, for example a poster is placed on the way to voting station threatening the voters to vote. Other forms of inducement are impersonation or proxy voting or multiple voting, assassination of character of the candidate in order to affect the return of a candidate at an election.

Encouraging bribery is the cause of concern during elections. Recently, Election Commission issued a notice to Aam Aadmi Party convener Arvind Kejriwal for violation of model code of conduct by allegedly promoting bribery during an election campaign in Goa. He had said, voters to take money if offered by Congress and BJP, “but vote only for AAP”. This is an act of inducement proportionally between money and votes.

Second in line is, Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar addressing a corner meeting at the Chimbel slum near Panaji recently. Parrikar had said: "...I understand if someone organises a rally and you take Rs 500 for moving around with (the candidate), that is not a problem. But when you vote, choose the lotus (BJP's poll symbol). This you must remember."

Generally, most of the politicians are like a turtle planted on the top of a pole. A turtle or a politician cannot climb on the top by themselves, but by inducement. After reaching there he realises that the place does not belong to him. He doesn’t know what to do. He has been elevated beyond his ability to function there. What else we can expect from them during elections than babbling about inducement and votes.