TNN
New Delhi, Mar 24: The UPA could get 257 seats in the forthcoming Lok Sabha polls, putting it within 15 seats of the 272 required for majority in the 543-member House.
But that includes the projected tally of Congress's estranged UPA partners RJD and LJP, as well as that of its embittered ally, Samajwadi Party, according to a survey conducted by market research agency Nielsen for a TV channel.
Excluding the three parties, the UPA's tally will stop at 210, says the survey. Interestingly, this projection also factors in 13 seats for NCP whose boss, Sharad Pawar, has made no secret of his prime ministerial ambitions, or willingness to hobnob with the Third Front.
Rival NDA is projected to get an even smaller total of 184 while the Third Front, being cobbled together by the Left with regional parties, is projected to get 96 seats.
The survey said the Congress will emerge as the single-largest party with 144 seats but will find the BJP just a step behind with 137. The Left Front is predicted to get 34 seats. The Trinamool Congress, which has forged a poll alliance with the Congress in the Red bastion of West Bengal, is seen as drastically improving to 13 seats, from its tally of two seats in the 14th Lok Sabha.
Telugu Desam Party is projected to do better than last time but will still trail its rivals in Andhra Pradesh. AIADMK is seen as getting nine seats against none now, but DMK will get 24 of the 39 seats from Tamil Nadu. TDP is predicted to get 14 seats compared to five in the last election but will still remain behind Congress with 22 seats.
In UP, the SP will remain the main force, though its tally is seen as coming down to 30 seats from the present 36. BSP is projected to get 21, two more than the 19 it had in the 14th Lok Sabha. Ajit Singh's Rashtriya Lok Dal's alliance with the BJP is expected to yield rich dividends, with the party expected to double its tally to six.
In Maharashtra, Sharad Pawar will remain the strongman as NCP is predicted to get 13 seats, marking a gain of four seats. In contrast, the Shiv Sena is seen as retaining its 12 seats. The alliance of NCP, Congress and RPI will bag a total of 26 seats as against the Sena-BJP's 22.
In Bihar, the survey says Lalu Yadav will lose but Ramvilas Paswan will gain as both have forged an alliance but parted ways with the Congress. The RJD is tipped to get only 11 seats, less than half of its present tally of 24, while LJP is tipped to increase its tally from four to six. NDA constituent Janata Dal (United) is seen as doubling its tally from eight to 16.
In Orissa, the survey does not see the Biju Janata Dal making any political gain from divorcing the BJP. Rather, it is seen as losing ground with nine seats against 11 now.