Chennai, Jul 1 (IANS): While the rains for the week ended June 30, 2023 was 18 per cent above the long term average (LTA), the cumulative rainfall was 10 per cent below the LTA, said a top economist with the Emkay Global Financial Services.

"Cumulative rainfall as on 30th June was 10 per cent below the long-term average (LTA), while weekly rainfall was 18 per cent above the LTA. There is high spatial divergence, with North and West India seeing surplus rains (42 per cent above LTA), largely due to the impact of Cyclone Biparjoy, while Central (6 per cent), South (45 per cent) and East and North East (18 per cent) continue to be deficient," Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist said.

She also pointed out high spatial divergence in rainfall between the various regions.

According to Arora, the sowing status remains patchy with rice and pulses below last year's level. The total area under sowing (20.3mn ha) was 0.4 per cent higher than last year, as of 30th June.

Rice sowing remains well below last year’s level (2.7mn ha; minus 26 per cent), as does cotton (4.0mn ha; minus 14 per cent) while pulses sowing is marginally lower (1.8mn ha; minus 1.9 per cent), Arora said.

"On the other hand, coarse cereals (3.6mn ha; 61 per cent), oilseeds (2.2mn ha; 15 per cent) and sugarcane (5.4mn ha; 3 per cent) sowing are higher than last year. Overall area under sowing is at approximately 19 per cent of the normal area sown. On the retail prices front the average retail prices for cereals (0.6 per cent), pulses (0.2 per cent) and vegetables (15.9 per cent) were higher on a weekly basis, while prices for oils and fats declined (0.3 per cent). On an annual basis, average prices for cereals (3.9 per cent) and pulses (7.8 per cent) were higher, while those for vegetables (9.3 per cent) and oils and fats (19.5 per cent) were lower.

"The sharp increase in pulses has been driven by tur dal, and the government has imposed stock limits on tur and urad dal to prevent hoarding. It has also announced sale of pulses from the buffer stock in the open market. Additional measures taken in the last month to control food inflation include stock limits on wheat, and a cut in import duties on refined edible oils by 5 percentage points," Arora said.

As regards the reservoir levels she said overall basin-wise reservoir levels remain in surplus, but are below last year's level.

"As of 22nd June (data for 29th June is not yet available), the overall level is about 12% above the LTA, but 8% below last year’s level. Most major river basins are in surplus – Ganga (north and east), Godavari (west and south), Indus (north), Kaveri (south), Mahanadi (central and east) and Narmada (central and west). Only Krishna (west and south) was in deficit," Arora said.