Daijiworld Media Network- New Delhi

New Delhi, Apr 11: In a major boost to India’s transition towards cleaner energy, a new study by the Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB) has projected a nearly 60% rise in natural gas consumption by 2030, as the country intensifies efforts to cut down on oil imports and adopt environment-friendly alternatives across sectors.

The report outlines the anticipated surge in gas usage across various segments including fertiliser, power, refineries, petrochemicals, commercial and industrial establishments, households, and the growing adoption of CNG and LNG in the transport sector.

As per the PNGRB, natural gas consumption in India is expected to rise from 188 million standard cubic metres per day (mmscmd) in 2023-24 to 297 mmscmd by 2030 under the ‘Good-to-Go’ scenario — which assumes a continuation of current trends and policies. Looking further ahead, this number could touch 496 mmscmd by 2040.

The more optimistic ‘Good to Best’ scenario — which factors in accelerated reforms, enhanced investments, and policy support — pegs consumption at 365 mmscmd by 2030 and a robust 630 mmscmd by 2040.

In a bid to raise natural gas’s share in India’s energy mix from the current 6–6.5% to 15% by 2030, the government has ramped up gas infrastructure development. The PNGRB has established networks in 307 Geographical Areas, spanning the nation (barring island territories), facilitating access to gas across household, industrial, commercial, and transport sectors.

The City Gas Distribution (CGD) sector is poised to be a major driver of this growth, with its consumption likely to grow 2.5 to 3.5 times by 2030 from a base of 37 mmscmd in FY24. By 2040, this figure could rise 6 to 7 times, highlighting the sector’s transformative potential.

The refinery and petrochemical segments are also set to witness robust growth, driven by increased integration efforts. According to the report, the Petroleum Intensity Index is projected to rise by 15% by 2030 and 25% by 2040. Moderate growth is expected in other sectors such as power, fertiliser, iron, and steel.

LNG, in particular, is emerging as a game-changer for long-haul transportation, with the report noting that LNG trucking could gain significant traction post-2030, replicating China’s success in curbing diesel use.

Presently, India’s domestic gas production meets only half of its total demand. As future demand soars, reliance on LNG imports is expected to double by 2030. The PNGRB forecasts that improved global LNG supply post-2026 could help secure more affordable long-term contracts, thereby making LNG a viable fuel option for India's price-sensitive industrial and transport sectors.

The study paints a hopeful picture for India’s clean energy goals as it moves towards a net-zero emissions target by 2070, with natural gas playing the role of a transition fuel in this critical phase.