Daijiworld Media Network - New Delhi
Mumbai, Jul 10: India’s quick commerce (Q-commerce) sector is on track for a massive surge, with its gross order value (GOV) projected to nearly triple from an estimated Rs 64,000 crore in FY25 to Rs 2 lakh crore by FY28, according to a new report by CareEdge Advisory, a subsidiary of CareEdge Ratings.
Between FY22 and FY25, the industry witnessed explosive growth, clocking a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 142%, fueled by shifting consumer habits, expanding hyperlocal infrastructure, and growth from a low base. However, as the sector matures, the focus is now shifting from aggressive expansion to profitability and operational efficiency, the report noted.
“The next wave of Q-commerce growth will be defined by deeper penetration in Tier 2 and 3 cities, alongside tech-driven innovations,” said Tanvi Shah, Senior Director and Head of CareEdge Advisory and Research.
Revenue Outpacing Order Volume
While overall GOV is booming, platform revenue generated through service fees is growing even faster. From just Rs 450 crore in FY22, fee-based revenues have reached an estimated Rs 10,500 crore in FY25, and are expected to climb to Rs 34,500 crore by FY28, representing a robust CAGR of 26–27% from FY25 onward.
This rise is largely due to major Q-commerce platforms increasing service charges, leading to improved revenue realisation even as GOV continues to rise sharply.
A Tiny Share, but Big Potential
Despite the momentum, Q-commerce still represents only about 1% of India’s massive grocery market — but analysts argue this is precisely what makes the segment so promising.
“The convenience and speed of Q-commerce are being rapidly embraced. Even if grocery market growth plateaus, Q-commerce is expected to expand rapidly,” said Amir Shaikh, Assistant Director, CareEdge Advisory and Research.
Digital Boom Fuelling Growth
India’s thriving digital ecosystem continues to drive Q-commerce adoption. The country had over 270 million online shoppers in 2024, making it the second-largest e-retail user base in the world. The overall e-commerce market grew by 23.8% year-on-year in 2024 and is expected to maintain a CAGR of 21.5% through 2030.
As of early 2025, India had 1.12 billion mobile connections and 806 million internet users, with a 6.5% YoY increase. That number is expected to exceed 900 million users by the end of the year, offering Q-commerce platforms an ever-expanding digital customer base.
With this convergence of digital access, changing consumer behaviour, and improved infrastructure, India’s Q-commerce market appears poised for a transformative leap over the next three years.