Daijiworld Media Network – Washington
Washington, Mar 14: The killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in joint strikes by the United States and Israel has failed to topple the Iranian government, which now appears to be using its strategic position near the Strait of Hormuz to exert pressure on the world economy.
Two weeks into the conflict, analysts say the initial US success has evolved into a broader confrontation that limits the options of US President Donald Trump.
The strikes that killed Khamenei and dozens of senior officials in Tehran were reportedly the result of years of espionage and planning. Despite the loss of its top leadership, Iran swiftly appointed a new supreme leader while maintaining military operations through a decentralised “mosaic defence” structure designed to sustain command even after major leadership losses.
The doctrine was developed after the US toppled governments in Iraq and Afghanistan, enabling Iran to continue retaliation despite targeted strikes on senior officials.
Experts say Tehran is now pursuing a three-part strategy — ensuring the regime’s survival, maintaining retaliatory capabilities and prolonging the conflict to negotiate an outcome on its own terms.
Global impact grows
Iran has expanded the conflict by striking US allies and threatening oil supplies. Missile and drone attacks have reportedly targeted locations including a marina in Dubai and oil tankers at sea, while tensions have spread to countries such as Turkey and Cyprus.
In Lebanon, the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah has been exchanging missile fire with Israel.
Meanwhile, Iranian forces have effectively restricted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global chokepoint through which about one-fifth of the world’s crude oil shipments normally pass.
The disruption has pushed up oil and fuel prices worldwide, forcing countries including the United States, Bangladesh and Nigeria to deal with shortages and rationing. Governments have released nearly 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, though the move has provided limited relief.
Shipping disruptions and higher insurance costs have also affected global trade, with businesses in countries such as Kenya reporting declining exports as maritime routes become increasingly risky.
Pressure on Washington
The widening conflict has sparked questions about Washington’s strategy. Trump has called for Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” while US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth has described the operation’s objectives as “laser focused,” even as critics argue that the long-term goals remain unclear.
Analysts say Iran’s strategy includes leveraging global economic pressure and exploiting domestic political challenges in the US. With rising fuel prices affecting voters ahead of congressional elections, the war could become a political liability for the Trump administration.
Iran also retains the ability to threaten maritime trade through allied groups such as Yemen’s Houthi movement, which has previously targeted shipping in the Red Sea.
Uncertain endgame
Despite its leverage, Iran faces serious long-term economic challenges due to sanctions, war damage and internal unrest. Experts warn that the country could evolve into a “zombie state” — maintaining security control while struggling with revenue generation and basic governance.
Calls by Trump for a popular uprising in Iran have so far shown little sign of materialising, though analysts say it is still too early to assess how the conflict might influence domestic protests.
With no clear exit strategy, observers believe Washington may eventually redefine victory by highlighting Khamenei’s killing and the weakening of Iran’s military capabilities rather than pursuing regime change.
For now, however, the conflict shows no sign of easing, with missile strikes continuing across the region and tensions spreading far beyond Iran’s borders.