by Melka Miyar for Daijiworld Media Network
Pics - Ganesh S Perla
Mangalore, May 16: Though it is only a by-election for Ullal constituency a royal battle is on cards this time around. Political observers have turned their attention towards this coastal constituency which for long has been regarded as fortress of Congress in Dakshina Kannada.
No doubt this would result in the strong and direct fight between two political heavyweights BJP and Congress. Both the party leaders have already agreed that, the fight is among them only and there is no serious challenge for them from others. But the path is not so easy for Congress this time to retain this constituency. Hence a strong and bitter electoral fight is expected in Ullal.
The Ullal constituency is facing by-election owing to the death of MLA U T Fareed who had been ailing for sometime now. During the last general elections which were held in 2004, Congress was successful in retaining only Ullal and Mulki-Moodbidri constituencies in the district while BJP had snatched other constituencies.
In the last election, U T Fareed had prevailed over his nearest rival candidate Chandrashekhar Uchil of BJP by over a margin of 7,000. This time, BJP has fielded Chandrashekhar Uchil again. On the other hand, Congress has fielded U T Khader, son of U T Fareed.
Jayaram Shetty of BJP who is also a former MLA of Ullal constituency failed to get BJP ticket for the last assembly election. So he had moved to JD (S) then. But he did not taste success. Thereafter he took a sabbatical from active politics for sometime. But he is back into BJP-fold this time. This has surely bolstered BJP and has brightened their chances of prevailing over Congress. Political analysts say that this would surely make difference in party's approach towards campaigning.
However communal riots that rocked the district in the month of October 2006 could prove very decisive, say some. There is a perception that Muslims may lean towards Congress and Hindus towards BJP. A total of 161 thousand voters are there in Ullal constituency with 140 polling booths. The total number of Muslim voters is around t 55,000. Billavas are the second leading voters here with about 25 thousand in number.
On the other hand, BJP has raised the burning issue of Hindutva again to divide voters again. In a press conference held here on Tuesday May 15 evening, district in-charge minister said that, Hindus areas have been neglected while carrying developmental works in the constituency. He has also made it clear that developmental works done by BJP-JD(S) coalition government in the state and ‘Hindutva’ would be the major issues for this election.
On the other hand, Ullal is recognized for communal tension. Hence, the police authorities of the district have decided to tighten the security here. As H N Satyanarayan Rao, Western Range IGP has said that security would be beefed up not only in Ullal constituency but also in the entire district.
But the hot issue right now is fielding Abubakkar Natekal as JD (S) candidate at the last moment. Many have accused that, Nagaraj Shetty had forced JD (S) leaders to field their candidate just to break the Congress votes. But Nagaraj Shetty has denied these allegations. Any thing it may be, it is predicted that the votes that are going to be bagged by JD (S) would decide Congress' fate too.
On the other hand, Salafi movement has fielded Ismail Shafi as its candidate. It can also harm Congress and prove favourable for BJP as it can get some Muslim votes. Some local Congress leaders are also unhappy with U T Khader since he is yet to prove himself, according to them. This is also a negative factor for Congress.
It seems that, there is pro-BJP wave in the constituency. But there are also some setbacks for BJP. Balakrishna Shetty, candidate of CPI (M) can muster good amount of votes of Bunts community which would affect BJP. On the other hand, Mogaveeras (fishermen) of the constituency have also decided to boycott the election. If they do so, BJP would lose good amount of votes than Congress.
Last but not least, even monsoon may prove to be quite decisive. Since the elections are slated for Saturday June 2, possibility of some heavy showers cannot be ruled out. If rains affect the election, there is a threat for Congress too. It is said that, BJP voters are well-educated and well-settled than Congress' voters and their polling is certain than Congress voters.
Hence, the path is not easy for Congress. It is sure that, there would be a tough tussle between Congress and BJP. However, all said and done voters are the final authority and they can either make or break Congress this time.