NewIndpress
Bangalore, Sep 28: Some call it Karnataka’s T20 brand of politics, others say it should be dubbed Tik20 (after the deadly pesticide). Both versions may be right as the BJP in the State heads for a final do-or-die over where only a hair’s breadth divides victory from defeat.
Former prime minister and Janata Dal (S) supremo Deve Gowda, who came in to bowl the last over on Thursday, has made it clear that he is in no mood to transfer power to the BJP unless the latter creates a ‘congenial atmosphere’ and that his son Kumaraswamy’s reputation comes ahead of coalition politics.
But 20 months ago, the very same Gowda had said he had nothing to do either with the pact entered between the JD(S) and the BJP or his son (he was not on talking terms with Kumaraswamy, his ‘pet’ son, for quite some time).
Interpreting Gowda’s statements is an hermeneutical art in Karnataka. What does he really mean by ‘‘congenial’’ atmosphere?
Interpretation No 1: The BJP should make Tourism Minister B Sriramulu withdraw the attempt to murder case filed against Chief Minister H D Kumaraswamy on September 25.
The police, accompanied by a frenzied mob of JD(S) workers, had barged into the house of Sriramulu in Bellary to recover sarees and other goodies stored for the local urban body elections. A badly-shaken Sriramulu had to literally fall at the feet of the police. Surely an unprecedented spectacle! The BJP may not immediately agree.
Interpretation 2: The BJP must dismiss or suspend Sriramulu from the party. And tough action must be taken against MLC and mining baron Galli Janardhana Reddy and his brother G Karunakara Reddy, the BJP MP from Bellary, Sushma Swaraj’s favourite constituency (see the connection?). This mining lobby had hurled bribery charges against Kumaraswamy. The BJP will again keep silent on this because this lobby finances the party.
Interpretation 3: Give the JD(S) key portfolios like Home, Revenue, Industries, etc. The BJP is likely to say a firm no.
So what will Kumaraswamy do? He will act the good boy in politics and resign on October 2. But you will not hear the BJP clap because the Chief Minister will take the moral high ground that he had done his bit and it was up to the BJP to woo back the support of the JD(S).
For their part, the JD(S) MLAs have made it clear that they will only support Kumaraswamy. Gowda will look the other way and not issue a whip. This will leave the BJP helpless unless party bigwigs from Delhi thrash out a formula.
In such a scenario, the Governor will ask Kumaraswamy to continue as lameduck CM till a majority emerges on the Floor of the Assembly. In such murky conditions, only one party can navigate through: the Congress! It may try some working arrangements with the JD(S), but it will pay a heavy price as heavyweights like Siddaramaiah will leave the party. If the Constitutional crisis gets prolonged, Karnataka will head for President’s Rule. The famous SR Bommai case ruling of the Supreme Court will not be applicable as there will be no government and so it will not be possible to prove its strength on the Floor of the House.
Next option: early polls. In both scenarios it is the Congress that will have an advantage.
Karnataka is heading for D Days: Dassara, Diwali and Deve Gowda!
'Power' Shutdown Imminent?