Who knew? Modi's black money move kept a closely guarded secret


Dec 9 (Reuters): Prime Minister Narendra Modi handpicked a trusted bureaucrat, little known outside India's financial circles, to spearhead a radical move to abolish 86 percent of the country's cash overnight and take aim at the huge shadow economy.

Hasmukh Adhia, the bureaucrat, and five others privy to the plan were sworn to utmost secrecy, say sources with knowledge of the matter. They were supported by a young team of researchers working in two rooms at Modi's New Delhi residence, as he plotted his boldest reform since coming to power in 2014.

When announced, the abolition of high-value banknotes of 500 and 1,000 rupees ($7.50 and $15) came as a bolt from the blue. The secrecy was aimed at outflanking those who might profit from prior knowledge, by pouring cash into gold, property and other assets and hide illicit wealth.

Previously unreported details of Modi's handling of the so-called "demonetisation" open a window onto the hands-on role he played in implementing a key policy, and how he was willing to act quickly even when the risks were high.

While some advocates say the scrapping of the banknotes will bring more money into the banking system and raise tax revenues, millions of Indians are furious at having to queue for hours outside banks to exchange or deposit their old money.

Labourers have also been unpaid and produce has rotted in markets as cash stopped changing hands. Not enough replacement notes were printed in preparation for the upheaval, and it could take months for things to return to normal.

With India's most populous state, Uttar Pradesh, holding an election in early 2017 that could decide Modi's chances of a second term in office, there is little time for the hoped-for benefits of his cash swap to outweigh short-term pain.

Modi has staked his reputation and popularity on the move. "I have done all the research and, if it fails, then I am to blame," Modi told a cabinet meeting on Nov. 8 shortly before the move was announced, according to three ministers who attended.


Hasmukh Adhia


Direct Line to Modi

Overseeing the campaign, with support from the backroom team camped out at Modi's sprawling bungalow in the capital, was Adhia, a top finance ministry official.

The 58-year-old served as principal secretary to Modi from 2003-06 when he was chief minister of Gujarat state, establishing a relationship of trust with his boss and introducing him to yoga.

Colleagues interviewed by Reuters said he had a reputation for integrity and discretion.

Adhia was named revenue secretary in Sept. 2015, reporting formally to Finance Minister Arun Jaitley. In reality, he had a direct line to Modi and they would speak in their native Gujarati when they met to discuss issues in depth.

In the world's largest democracy the demonetisation was revolutionary: it called into question the state's promise to "pay the bearer" the face value on every banknote.

At a stroke, Modi scrapped money worth 15.4 trillion rupees ($220 billion), equal to 86 percent of cash in Asia's third-largest economy.

The idea is backed by some economists, although the speed of its implementation is widely seen as radical.

"One is never ready for this kind of disruption - but it is a constructive disruption," said Narendra Jadhav, a 31-year veteran and former chief economist of India's central bank who now represents Modi's party in the upper house of parliament.

Modi, in his TV address to the nation, cautioned that people could face temporary hardship as replacement 500 and 2,000 rupee notes were introduced. Calling for an act of collective sacrifice, he promised steps to soften the blow for the nine in 10 Indians who live in the cash economy.


'Biggest, Boldest Step'

Immediately after the address, Adhia sent a tweet: "This is the biggest and the boldest step by the Government for containing black money."

The boast harked back to Modi's election vow to recover black money from abroad that had resonated with voters fed up with the corruption scandals that plagued the last Congress government. Yet in office, he struggled to keep his promise.

Over more than a year, Modi commissioned research from officials at the finance ministry, the central bank and think-tanks on how to advance his fight against black money, a close aide said.

He demanded answers to questions such as: How quickly India could print new banknotes; how to distribute them; would state banks benefit if they received a rush of new deposits; and who would gain from demonetisation?

The topics were broken up to prevent anyone from joining the dots and concluding that a cash swap was in the offing.

"We didn't want to let the cat out of the bag," said a senior official directly involved. "Had people got a whiff of the decision, the whole exercise would have been meaningless."

Under Adhia's oversight, the team of researchers assembled and modeled the findings in what was, for it, a theoretical exercise.

It was made up of young experts in data and financial analysis; some ran Modi's social media accounts and a smartphone app that he used to solicit public feedback.

Yet for all the planning, Modi and Adhia knew they could not foresee every eventuality, and were willing to move swiftly.

The announcement caused chaos, with huge queues forming at banks when they reopened after a short holiday. New 2,000 rupee notes were hard to come by and barely any new 500 rupee notes had been printed. India's 200,000 cash dispensers could not handle the new, smaller, notes and it would take weeks to reconfigure them.

Filling ATMs with the 8 trillion rupees ($117 billion) in new banknotes that the finance ministry reckons are needed to restore liquidity to the economy is even trickier.

In a best-case scenario, in which India's four banknote presses churned out new 500 and 2,000 rupee notes designed to replace the abolished ones, it would take at least three months to hit that target.


Secrecy Paramount

Secrecy was paramount, but clues had been left. Back in April, analysts at State Bank of India said that demonetisation of large-denomination notes was possible.

The Reserve Bank of India, the central bank, also disclosed in May that it was making preparations for a new series of banknotes that were confirmed in August when it announced it had approved a design for a new 2,000 rupee note.

The printing presses had only just started turning when the media finally started to run with the story in late October. "The plan was to introduce it around Nov. 18, but there was a clear sign that it could get leaked," said one person with direct knowledge who, like others interviewed by Reuters, asked not to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter.

Some officials in the finance ministry had expressed doubts about scrapping high-value notes when the idea came up for discussion. They now feel resentment at the secrecy in which Adhia rammed through the plan on Modi's orders.

They also say the plan was flawed because of a failure to ramp up printing of new notes ahead of time. Other critics say the Adhia team fell prey to a form of "group think" that ignored outside advice.

In the words of one former top official who has worked at the finance ministry and central bank: "They don't know what's happening in the real world."

  

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Comment on this article

  • amruthkar, Vijayapura

    Sat, Dec 10 2016

    The Rich men of our country are so happy and joyful to SEE the long lines at the ATMs and Banks. Very tragic and murdering Indian common man!!!!!!

    DisAgree [8] Agree [16] Reply Report Abuse

  • George Lawrence, karkala

    Sat, Dec 10 2016

    wait and see where MODI will put the citizens.

    DisAgree [4] Agree [20] Reply Report Abuse

  • Vikram Bondal, Mangalore

    Sat, Dec 10 2016

    Not doubting the intentions of the PM and Mr Adhia, but when taking a decision of this magnitude, opinions from different sectors needed to have been taken. Bureaucrats are so high up there, that sometimes in spite of their desire to help the public, they are out of touch with what the public really thinks. Add to that the fact that almost every business here is more cash, than bank, and not necessarily in black. A small number of people from unorganized sectors should have been consulted, in order to learn about a potential situation like what's happening now (Lack of money in ATMs, business slowdown) etc, and confidentiality agreements could have been signed so they don't leak the matter. Anyway, just hope things get back to normal soon.

    DisAgree [2] Agree [8] Reply Report Abuse

  • Anwar, Dubai

    Sat, Dec 10 2016

    My only one question to Modi government please let us how many innocent people death you need to crunch the black money already number 100 is cross. No other plan is there other than innocent people death?

    DisAgree [13] Agree [18] Reply Report Abuse

  • dev, mangalore

    Sat, Dec 10 2016

    India is true blessed to have a PM like Modiji. our countries 6 decades of curse is over.
    PM Modi we are with you. go ahead with all the reform and cleansing of the system.
    May god bless you with good health and strength to lead our country to greater heights.
    jAI HIND

    DisAgree [60] Agree [29] Reply Report Abuse

  • Louis D' Souza, Mangalore

    Sat, Dec 10 2016

    Who, whatever may say. PM Modi, 98% of Indian love you and your work.

    Jai Hind

    DisAgree [71] Agree [32] Reply Report Abuse

  • mohan, mangalore

    Mon, Dec 12 2016

    check the agree and disagree for your comments.... and take the ratio ...

    DisAgree [1] Agree [3] Reply Report Abuse

  • Rima, Mangalore/Riyadh

    Sat, Dec 10 2016

    Actual reason given for demonetization was to abolish the black money. When the thinks started to go against the plan, Modi and his assistant Jatley changing their tune that it is to make india cash less and digital india and forgot the black money. 

    DisAgree [9] Agree [34] Reply Report Abuse

  • Pratap Rao, Bangalore

    Fri, Dec 09 2016

    How can anybody support demonetization after witnessing its impacts? There have been more than 100 official deaths of people standing on ques for their own money. Unofficially many more have died unable to pay their bills or able to get medicines. After the demonetization the largest number of cases of new money frauds have been with BJP leaders from different states. Besides what corruption can you fight by demonetising when the rich invest their money on lands, jewellery, investments? It is only the poor have suffered. 

    DisAgree [6] Agree [32] Reply Report Abuse

  • Paul Pinto, Mumbai

    Fri, Dec 09 2016

    Modi recently had agreed that the Demonetisation was a blunder and he was wrongly advised.

    DisAgree [43] Agree [99] Reply Report Abuse

  • Abhijit, M'lore

    Fri, Dec 09 2016

    Don't spread illogical rumors.

    DisAgree [56] Agree [29] Reply Report Abuse

  • Vincent Rodrigues., Frazer Town,Bangalore

    Fri, Dec 09 2016

    This has really become a curse to common man who has to struggle to withdraw his hard earned money and the rich are comfortably without any impact

    DisAgree [25] Agree [82] Reply Report Abuse

  • N.M, Mangalore

    Fri, Dec 09 2016

    Have you ever spotted a single BJP leader, business man standing in those queues???

    DisAgree [35] Agree [138] Reply Report Abuse

  • Sid, Mangalore

    Fri, Dec 09 2016

    Only pappu got his 2000 and photo opportunity.

    DisAgree [18] Agree [20] Reply Report Abuse

  • Alfria, Mumbai

    Sat, Dec 10 2016

    What about feku's mother,she also went to change notes and photo session,

    DisAgree [3] Agree [22] Reply Report Abuse

  • tony d'souza, mangalore/usa

    Sat, Dec 10 2016

    ?......mean to say all standing in the q r congis its funny.......

    DisAgree [13] Agree [10] Reply Report Abuse

  • Real Mangalorean, Mangalore / Dubai

    Sat, Dec 10 2016

    But only BJP's are the ones who were caught with large amount of unaccounted new currencies.

    DisAgree [4] Agree [29] Reply Report Abuse

  • kishuuu, MANGALORE

    Fri, Dec 09 2016

    nice step taken by modijiiii .......

    DisAgree [152] Agree [51] Reply Report Abuse

  • Elwyn Goveas, valencia

    Fri, Dec 09 2016

    I had thought Modi was a leader who was a chaiwala sometime in his life.
    But it seems he is actually a chaiwala who become PM sometime in his life.

    DisAgree [43] Agree [143] Reply Report Abuse

  • Rita, Germany

    Sat, Dec 10 2016

    @E.Goveas Valencia,I think here we cant blame Modi.when some corrupt People in bank and freinds circle,do the rest to arise a big chaos.Just see when new currency is printed,cirtainly it will go viral why and what.second we are in a digital time,hakers are on the move.Now the talk of new plastic Cards.New currency was given out with some percent in lakhs and crores,how normal People will get in ATM.?corrupt People in bank and corrupt agents.secrecy has no Chance.Modi is not to blame.Only some good plannig of giving out and enough currency was needed.

    DisAgree [5] Agree [13] Reply Report Abuse

  • Satish Kumar, mangalore

    Fri, Dec 09 2016

    The Great leader India ever had, Salute to Mr Modi, the bold step you had taken to eliminate the black money in my Country, No PM earlier have taken such a strong decision.

    DisAgree [186] Agree [79] Reply Report Abuse

  • Goppi Monishu K., Mlore

    Fri, Dec 09 2016

    it was not for you and me but only for big sharks i.e., Mallya etc., etc., Grow up man....

    DisAgree [34] Agree [141] Reply Report Abuse

  • Gods Own Person, Muscat Oman

    Fri, Dec 09 2016

    "Modi don't know what's happening in the real world."

    DisAgree [54] Agree [175] Reply Report Abuse

  • sampath, mangalore

    Fri, Dec 09 2016

    dear readers please check out aaj taak interview with delhi CM then you decide who is correct and who is wrong

    DisAgree [23] Agree [72] Reply Report Abuse

  • Aam Indian, Mlore/Bahrain

    Fri, Dec 09 2016

    Power corrupts. Absolute power corrupts absolutely.

    DisAgree [20] Agree [96] Reply Report Abuse

  • tom cat , Navi Mumbai

    Fri, Dec 09 2016

    Truly Feku go to any gujrathi shops in mumbai you can shop for rs100 and get change. They told told me they had accumulated it from three months although they did not believe it.

    DisAgree [24] Agree [98] Reply Report Abuse

  • R Mallar, Kasaragod/ Dubai

    Fri, Dec 09 2016

    It looks like bankers, bureaucrats, corrupt politicians and black money holders have find a way to beat the system. After going fine for two weeks, now the money is getting diverted.

    DisAgree [7] Agree [56] Reply Report Abuse

  • TRUE INDIAN , IXE

    Fri, Dec 09 2016

    MANY MINISTERS HAD ALREADY CONVERTED. AND SENT ABROAD BEFORE DEMONIZATION.

    MANY INDUSTRIALIST AND BOLLYWOOD CELEBRITIES ARE THANKING MODIJI.

    DisAgree [19] Agree [95] Reply Report Abuse

  • The Guru, Mangalore

    Fri, Dec 09 2016

    TRUE INDIAN , IXE

    Proof Please... Talk as much as you can giving proof, if not then you can stop talking

    DisAgree [62] Agree [18] Reply Report Abuse

  • Real Mangalorean, Mangalore / Dubai

    Sat, Dec 10 2016

    AAP representative??

    DisAgree [4] Agree [1] Reply Report Abuse

  • kas, Mangalore

    Sat, Dec 10 2016

    Guru, Mangalore ....If you need proof I can suggest one thing ....Take a oath on your religious book and say that Modi DID NOT give any favour to the political leaders and business friends before note bandi .. ...True Indian will take a oath on his religious book and say that Modi gave favour to political leaders and business friends before note bandi ....Let us see whose heart is black or white ....

    DisAgree Agree [8] Reply Report Abuse

  • Vijay, Mangalore

    Fri, Dec 09 2016

    This is called scapegoating.... So in ciming days.....Suicide/ Jail term/ Unexpected death for him... Possible plan....Masterstroke!

    DisAgree [6] Agree [34] Reply Report Abuse

  • TRUE INDIAN , Ixe

    Fri, Dec 09 2016

    BUT MODI BRAINWASHING POOR PEOPLE. THROUGH HIS LIES. POOR PEOPLE THINKS MODI IS DOING FOR THE COUNTRY.

    DisAgree [30] Agree [148] Reply Report Abuse

  • Jossey Saldanha, Mumbai

    Fri, Dec 09 2016

    Entire Gujarat & half of North India knew ...

    DisAgree [40] Agree [172] Reply Report Abuse

  • Raks, M'lore

    Fri, Dec 09 2016

    How do you Know

    DisAgree [72] Agree [31] Reply Report Abuse

  • Gods Own Person, Muscat Oman

    Fri, Dec 09 2016

    Try to sit with Educated People. then you will......

    DisAgree [17] Agree [81] Reply Report Abuse

  • dev, mangalore

    Sat, Dec 10 2016

    this person know every s*** news.
    may be he has got some personal issues with north indians. so in all his comments he connects his own theories to N indians.

    DisAgree [9] Agree [8] Reply Report Abuse

  • HENRY MISQUITH, BAHRAIN

    Fri, Dec 09 2016

    The currency ban was known to many ministers, business tycoons, corporate and big babus...this was BJPee's biggest scam ever.

    DisAgree [40] Agree [167] Reply Report Abuse

  • geoffrey, hat hill

    Fri, Dec 09 2016

    Three can keep a secret if two of them are dead - Benjamin Franklin.

    DisAgree [18] Agree [124] Reply Report Abuse

  • Elangovan, Rameshwaram

    Fri, Dec 09 2016

    Killer Move!

    DisAgree [12] Agree [109] Reply Report Abuse

  • Rajesh, Mulky

    Sat, Dec 10 2016

    Fully agreed.100 already dead.

    DisAgree [2] Agree [17] Reply Report Abuse


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Title: Who knew? Modi's black money move kept a closely guarded secret



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