Acid Test for BJP, Cong, but JD(S) could Upset Both

Gabriel Vaz
Daijiworld Media Network - Bangalore

Bangalore, Sep 8: The outcome of the two by-elections from Gulbarga south and Kadur assembly constituencies on September 13, caused by the death of the sitting MLAs, may not cause any political upheavals in state. 

However, victory or defeat for the ruling BJP in one or both the constituencies could well pose a serious challenge to chief minister B S Yeddyurappa. The same applies to the opposition Congress as well. JD(S), the third major political player in the state, really has no stake in the by-elections.

While Gulbarga seat was held by BJP, Kadur was represented by Congress. Naturally, it is important for both parties to at least retain the seats.  Winning both seats would certainly be a big boost.

What gives special significance for the two by-elections is the timing.  For the BJP, the by-elections are being held soon after the completion of the two-year rule of the Yeddyurappa regime, the much-hyped Global Investors’ Meet, the drama over the resignation and subsequent withdrawal by Lokayukta Justice Santhosh Hegde and the controversy over the illegal mining. 

Of course, the ruling party had the advantage of capturing power in the Bruhat Bangalore Mahanagara Palike and the Grama Panchayat elections. The Congress party, on the other hand, had fared badly in the BBMP and panchayat raj polls and was groping in the dark to revive its sagging fortunes until the Lokayukta episode and the fracas over illegal mining, which resulted in their undertaking the mammoth Bangalore-to-Bellary padayatra and a mammoth rally. 

The Bellary Reddy brothers, who had tormented Yeddyurappa by launching the dissidence war, were put on the defensive though they too sought to counter the Congress padayatra with their own yatra and rallies.

Thus, both BJP and Congress were confident of taking on each other in the game of political one-upmanship. The Congress opposition leader in the assembly Siddaramaiah will have to prove his winnability by helping the party’s victory in Kadur.  For Congress leaders Dharam Singh and Mallikarjuna Kharge victory in Gulbarga south is also equally important.

Though the JD(S) was in the forefront of the campaign against the Yeddyurappa regime on the Bangalore-Mysore Infrastructure Corridor issue, land acquisition in and around Bangalore and many other issues apart from the campaign against the Reddy brothers, the party was somehow relegated to the background when BJP and Congress leaders were involved in the dogfight.

Incidentally, the by-elections were announced after the BJP versus the rest battle reached feverish pitch over the anti-cow slaughter bill that was hurriedly passed in the state legislature without any discussion. With all opposition parties, including progressive Kannada writers and thinkers as well as dalits and other organisations and minority groups, opposing the bill and the governor H R Bhardwaj refusing to give his assent and referring the bill to the President for examination, the ruling party took it upon itself the task of championing the bill. The state BJP president K S Eshwarappa went to the extent of daring the opposition parties to treat the by-elections as a sort of referendum, though nobody accepted the challenge.

What makes the by-elections interesting are the candidates - the Gulbarga south seat was represented by BJP’s MLA Chandrashekar Patil Revoor, who had represented the constituency twice. The BJP had initially proposed to field Revoor’s wife Aruna and the chief minister had even telephoned her with a request to contest from BJP. But Aruna reportedly declined to contest and requested that the ticket be given to Revoor’s on Dattatreya, who is a BJP zilla panchayat member. However, the BJP did not accept the suggestion and chose sitting MLC Sashil Namoshi as the candidate. Namoshi is a staunch Yeddyurappa loyalist and serves as the chairman of the high power committee for monitoring the implementation of Dr D M Nanjundappa panel’s report.

The Congress party has chosen former chief minister Dharam Singh’s son Dr Ajay as its candidate. Incidentally, Gulbarga south forms part of the Gulbarga lok sabha constituency represented by Dharam Singh. Another prominent leader from the Gulbarga district, Union Labour minister Mallikarjuna Kharge, who along with his son Priyank, is also actively campaigning for the success of the Congress candidate.

Adding spice to the contest, is the JD(S) decision to field Revoor’s wife Aruna as its candidate. With both Namoshi and Aruna hailing from the Lingayat community, and the latter enjoying the benefit of sympathy factor on account of Revoor’s popularity in the district and the anger against BJP for ignoring the deceased MLAs family, JD(S) could spoil the chances of either BJP or Congress. JD(S) leader Kumaraswamy is believed to have taken it upon himself the challenge of working for the success of Revoor’s wife Aruna.

The Kadur seat was represented by Congress MLA K M Krishnamurthy, who had won the seat four times. The JD(S) candidate Y S V Datta, sitting MLC, narrowly missed victory in the 2008 elections against Krishnamurthy, who originally hailed from Janata Party and Janata Dal before shifting loyality to the Congress along with Siddaramaiah.

In fact, Siddaramaiah is believed to have been responsible for ensuring that the Congress ticket was given to Krishnamurthy’s brother K M Kemparaju rather than wife Sujatha. While Datta is contesting again from JD(S), the ruling party has fielded its unsuccessful candidate in the 2008 polls Dr Vishwanath. Kadur, incidentally, comes under the Hassan Lok Sabha constituency represented by JD(S) supremo H D Deve Gowda and is Datta is known to be very close to both Deve Gowda and his son Kumaraswamy.

Thus, both BJP and Congress have gone against the tradition of giving the ticket to the deceased ML.As wife or son in Gulbarga and Congress and therefore the by-elections have become important for the mentors of the candidates Ajay Singh-Sashil Namoshi-Aruna Revoor and K M Kemparaju-Y S V Datta. Also, in the unlikely event of BJP losing both the seats or Congress coming a cropper in both, Yeddyurappa as well as Siddaramaiah will be sure to invite trouble.