Daijiworld Media Network - New Delhi
New Delhi, May 28: A promising forecast of above-normal rainfall by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for the upcoming monsoon season could spell good news for India’s economy, according to a Crisil report released on Wednesday. The report suggests that stronger agricultural output, improved rural demand, and lower inflation may all be on the horizon—provided the rains arrive as predicted.
The IMD has projected rainfall at 106% of the long-period average (LPA) for the June–September southwest monsoon season. If realized, this would mark the second consecutive year of above-normal rains.
"A second year of robust monsoons could reinforce rural economic momentum, sustain strong agricultural output, and help keep food prices in check," the report noted.
In fiscal year 2025, the agriculture and allied sectors recorded a gross value added (GVA) growth of 4.6%, exceeding the decade-long average of 4.0% (FY2015–24). This surge in output contributed significantly to easing food inflation, helping bring consumer price index (CPI) inflation down to 3.2% in April, following a sharp drop in the March quarter.
A critical factor for this positive outlook is not just the quantity but the distribution of rainfall. The IMD anticipates June will witness above-normal precipitation—over 108% of LPA—breaking a three-year streak of below-normal rainfall in the same month. This could provide a timely boost to sowing activity and replenish water reservoirs across the country.
Regionally, the forecast is particularly favorable for Central and South Peninsular India, which are likely to receive above-normal rains. Northwest India is expected to experience normal rainfall, while Northeast India may see below-normal precipitation.
Despite the optimistic forecast, the Crisil report urges caution against potential climatic disruptions. It warns that extreme weather events such as unseasonal rainfall, floods, heatwaves, and cyclones could derail agricultural output and price stability.
Even in fiscal 2025, while overall foodgrain production benefited from adequate rains, vegetable yields were hit hard by erratic weather. Approximately 41% of food inflation last year stemmed from spikes in vegetable prices, largely due to heatwaves and excessive rain in some regions.
Crisil emphasizes the importance of proactive monitoring and response mechanisms to mitigate the impact of climate volatility, even as the nation prepares for what could be a favorable monsoon season.