Daijiworld Media Network - Dubai

Dubai, Jan 22: A cargo aircraft previously linked to the supply of weapons to UAE-backed forces in Sudan and Libya has carried out a series of recent flights between military bases in Abu Dhabi, Israel, Bahrain and Ethiopia, raising fresh concerns over escalating regional tensions, Middle East Eye (MEE) reported.

While the exact purpose of the flights remains unclear, they have taken place against the backdrop of an intensifying power struggle between the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia across Yemen and the Horn of Africa, with potential implications for the already devastating war in Sudan.

The UAE has suffered setbacks in recent months after Saudi Arabia launched military action to remove the Emirati-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) from Yemen’s port city of Aden, forcing Abu Dhabi to withdraw from its key military base in Bosaso, Somalia.

At the same time, Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, where the UAE operates a military base and controls the Berbera port, has further destabilised the region. Analysts suggest Ethiopia, a close UAE ally, may follow suit in return for access to Berbera.

Sudan war drawn into regional rivalry

The ongoing war in Sudan between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) — which began in April 2023 and has triggered the world’s largest humanitarian crisis — has become central to this rivalry. Saudi Arabia, backed by Egypt and Turkey, has stepped up support for the SAF to counter the UAE’s alleged backing of the RSF.

Amid uncertainty over UAE bases in Berbera and Bosaso, following Somalia’s cancellation of all agreements with Abu Dhabi, Emirati personnel have reportedly been redeployed to Ethiopia, now viewed as critical to the UAE’s regional strategy.

A former Ethiopian government adviser told MEE that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed appears firmly aligned with the UAE, adding that Abu Dhabi has played a decisive role in Ethiopia’s regional posture over the past two years.

Suspicious cargo flights

Flight-tracking data analysed by MEE revealed repeated sorties by an Antonov An-124 cargo aircraft, operated by Abu Dhabi-based Maximus Air and bearing tail number UR-ZYD, between Abu Dhabi and Harar Meda, the main base of the Ethiopian Air Force.

The aircraft — described as the world’s largest military transport plane — made multiple flights to Harar Meda between January 3 and January 17, some departing from Abu Dhabi’s Al Dhafra military base. It later flew onward to France, Kazakhstan, China and Thailand.

Notably, in late December, days before its Ethiopia missions, the same aircraft reportedly made three round trips between military bases in Bahrain and Israel, landing at Israel’s Ovda Air Base in the Negev desert.

Nathaniel Raymond of Yale’s Humanitarian Research Lab warned that repeated An-124 flights into Ethiopia near areas of increased RSF activity should be “of global concern”, urging Ethiopian authorities to block access if the flights are proven to support the RSF.

Past UN scrutiny

Maximus Air has previously come under scrutiny from a UN panel of experts, which in a 2021 report accused the airline of violating UN arms embargoes by transporting weapons to forces loyal to Libyan commander Khalifa Haftar, a key UAE ally.

The same aircraft, UR-ZYD, was identified as part of a covert “airbridge” supplying arms to Haftar, whose forces have since supported the RSF in Sudan. The UAE has repeatedly denied all allegations of backing the RSF, which has been widely accused of committing atrocities in Darfur.

The airline is part of the Abu Dhabi Aviation (ADA) group, majority-owned by investment fund ADQ, chaired by UAE National Security Adviser Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan.
Growing regional stakes

Analysts say Saudi Arabia’s recent gains in Yemen have strengthened Riyadh’s regional standing, prompting it to invest heavily in shifting the balance of power in Sudan. Meanwhile, Ethiopia is expected to remain aligned with Abu Dhabi, further entrenching Gulf rivalries in the Horn of Africa.

“The Horn of Africa is now at the mercy of what happens in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi,” Sudanese analyst Kholood Khair told MEE. “Countries in the region are increasingly making strategic decisions based on which Gulf power they side with.”