New Delhi, Aug 21 (India Today): Prime Minister Narendra Modi's National Democratic Alliance would be back in power, but barely so, if elections were held today, according to India Today's Mood of the Nation July 2018 (MOTN July 2018) poll. The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance may not be able to fulfill its goal of ridding New Delhi of the Modi-Shah duo, but the coalition has much to cheer.

MOTN July 2018 shows the UPA getting a jump of as many as 20 seats in the seat-share forecast compared to MOTN January 2018. According to the biannual poll, the NDA would be just nine ahead of the Lok Sabha halfway mark with 281 seats.

The UPA would win 122 seats while other parties would pick up the remaining 140. In terms of the vote share, the NDA would win 36 per cent of votes polled while the UPA would win 31 per cent. This is a drop of four percentage points for the former and a rise of four percentage points for the Congress-led alliance.

The numbers above are based on the current political climate of the country -- for the numbers to hold, Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United) will need to continue to be a part of the NDA. The numbers will also change if the Janata Dal (Secular) suddenly were to quit the UPA or if the Telugu Desam Party and the J&K Peoples Democratic Party were to become part of any of the national alliances.

NEXT PM OF INDIA: Quite unexpectedly, considering the NDA's strong showing in MOTN July 2018, Narendra Modi emerges as the clear favourite to be the next prime minister of India. His popularity is (49 per cent) followed by that of Congress chief Rahul Gandhi's at 27 per cent. The race, it seems, is only between these two leaders as the third choice is Priyanka Gandhi at a distant 3 per cent. Rahul is also seen as the best alternative to PM Narendra Modi, who maintains his position as the best prime minister of India in the MOTN July 2018.

DEMONETISATION PAIN: One of the biggest policy decisions of the Narendra Modi government, the pain of the shock November 2016 demonetisation exercise hasn't gone away for India, according to MOTN July 2018. Nearly three-fourths of the respondents said that demonestiation caused more pain than gain; the number (73 per cent) is the same as what it was in MOTN January 2018 but is a steep rise from last year's MOTN (61 per cent).

RAHUL CAN REVIVE: Asked purely about the Congress, as many as 47 per cent of respondents said that they believe Rahul Gandhi can revive the Congress party. 46 per cent also believe that Rahul as prime minister is something that other leaders of a potential national grand alliance will be able to swallow.

BJP VS CONGRESS: One of the biggest takeaways from MOTN July 2018 poll is that the Bharatiya Janata Party cannot hope to maintain its Lok Sabha supremacy. While the party will remain the single-largest, according to the poll, it will not enjoy its current single-handed majority. The party would win 245 seats (it won 282 in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls), making it dependent on allies. The Congress, on the other hand, would nearly double its 2014 tally by winning 83 seats.

INDIA'S BIGGEST HEADACHE: Unemployment, price rise and corruption remain the three biggest issues of concern for Indians. In fact, all three are issues that seem to have become bigger concerns since the January MOTN poll. Unemployment is an issue of concern for 34 per cent, which is five percentage points more than the previous poll.

MAMATA IS THE BEST: Firebrand Bengal leader Mamata Banerjee has won the poll of the best chief ministers in MOTN July 2018. She is followed by Nitish Kumar and Arvind Kejriwal. Manohar Parrikar, Vijay Rupani, ML Khattar, Devendra Fadnavis and Amarinder Singh are among the chief ministers who have gotten a lowly two per cent popularity mark in the poll.

MODI, NDA DON'T DISAPPOINT: PM Narendra Modi continues to remain a popular prime minister. 55 per cent of respondents have voted favourably when asked about his performance. However, this is a drop of six percentage points compared to MOTN January 2018. A similar percentage of respondents (56 per cent) are satisfied by the NDA government's performance.

JAITLEY FOR THE WIN: Among the ministers in the Narendra Modi cabinet, Arun Jaitley is seen as the best performing in the MOTN July 2018 poll. Rajnath Singh and Sushma Swaraj follow close behind while Nitin Gadkari and Nirmala Sitharaman rank at fourth and fifth, respectively.

OPPOSITION UNITY FOR REAL: An overwhelming 49 per cent of the respondents in the MOTN July 2018 poll believe that the Opposition unity will hold and translate into a grand electoral alliance against the BJP in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. And, Rahul Gandhi is the best person to lead such an alliance, the MOTN poll shows. However, Mamata Banerjee and her TMC are the best suited to lead a non-BJP, non-Congress federal front.