TNN
New Delhi, Mar 3: Three months is an eternity in politics. Around last November, the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) was on the mat as the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) turbo-charged by serial terror strikes and price rise, looked to emerge winner. Then assembly wins in Delhi and Rajasthan gave Congress the much-needed oxygen and the boot suddenly seemed to be on the other leg.
That it is almost as long to go between the poll announcement and Lok Sabha results will help temper temptations to declare a victor. But as the starting gun went off on Monday, the balance looks tilted in favour of the ruling combine, though an unpredictable poll turf lies ahead.
Congress — and UPA — is banking on an upbeat mood induced by assembly polls, a wider support base than rival NDA and efforts to address weak spots like terrorism by tougher laws and some diplomatic success with Pakistan. On the economy, there have been a series of sops and UPA hopes a "lady bountiful" act on NREGA, Bharat Nirman and procurement prices will keep the rural economy up and bring in the vote.
Congress hopes its initiatives can neutralise concern over crucial states of Tamil Nadu, Bihar and Andhra Pradesh, where anti-incumbency could deliver a telling blow to party chief Sonia Gandhi's hopes. These states account for 121 seats, and fortunes of Lalu Prasad, M Karunanidhi and Y S Rajasekhara Reddy are widely expected to slide. The restless Sharad Pawar is looking to drive a hard bargain with Congress.
But in the atmospherics Congress has its nose ahead. Riding a positive spinoff from assembly wins in the midst of 26/11 — despite losing Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh convincingly — Congress is pleased Muslims are still voting for it even after the Jamia shootout and a crackdown on extremists.
On the other hand, not only is BJP's confidence in dented, but the party has been forced to look at reformulating the issue of terror on the poll scene.
The turn of mood among Muslims in select states may impact the community's preference across the country and the quiet manner in which "staunch secularists" like LJP, SP, RJD and MIM have fallen in line after raising a noise over "victimisation of minorities" is an indicator. With no real third front in sight, the minority vote will look to oppose NDA and its prime ministerial nominee L K Advani.
Congress would hope it has spiked a saffron mobilisation on terrorism by some tough talking. The party is also quite dependent on its massive spending plans on rural areas actually working in its favour — again an uncertain proposition as the schemes are implemented by the states.
After a tie-up with National Conference in J&K, a surprise "proposal" from AIADMK despite Congress's existing relationship with DMK, and an alliance with Trinamool in West Bengal, has pumped up the UPA leader's equity. Even SP is showing interest for a tieup after a public spat over last few months and it seems that Congress's work on coalition-making is also doing well.
On top of it, there has also been a rare sense of purpose shown by Congress with Sonia Gandhi investing a personal stake in it to nudge the satraps into working and by projecting Rahul Gandhi as the leader-in-waiting. If there is a small concern, it is about leadership issue. While the party has made it clear it is betting on Manmohan Singh to lead the government, his health-related disappearance from public view, at the politically sensitive last parliament session, was bound to raise questions.
But insiders argue that leadership is not a big issue as the mandate would be for Sonia Gandhi and, if need be, she can always pull out a rabbit. Prime Ministers need not be irreplaceable.