Pro-incumbency beats anti-incumbency factor in Gujarat, Himachal


New Delhi, Dec 5 (IANS): Elections in India in contemporary times have become a showcase of pro-incumbency verdicts.

This was revealed by an IANS analysis of ABP-CVoter Exit Poll for the Assembly elections held in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh, with the findings showing BJP retaining power in both the states.

In Himachal Pradesh, the Congress put up a spirited challenge while it was a lacklustre show in Gujarat for the Grand Old Party.

The incumbent government in Himachal is usually voted out during Assembly elections. But it doesn't seem to be the case this time.

In Gujarat, the BJP looks set to tide over 27 years of accumulated anti-incumbency and anger.

Something similar was seen in Uttarakhand and Goa during the Assembly elections held earlier this year.

The BJP faced severe anti-incumbency sentiments after 10 years of rule in Goa. Yet, it won the elections comfortably, leaving the Congress way behind.

The prospects of Congress regaining power in Uttarakhand were even brighter. The BJP had changed three Chief Ministers in six months in the run-up to the elections, and the Congress had a popular local leader in Harish Rawat. Yet, it failed to dislodge the BJP.

Even in Uttar Pradesh, the BJP defied all odds when Yogi Adityanath won a second consecutive term in 2022.

The recent exit poll findings revealed a similar trend across India where incumbent parties get re-elected despite the seeming anti-incumbency factor.

CVoter had forecast a very narrow win for the Nitish Kumar-led NDA in Bihar in 2020. It happened. Exactly the same happened in West Bengal in 2021, where Mamata Bannerjee-led Trinamool Congress swept to power for a third straight term.

The most surprising verdict came from Kerala where sitting CPI (M) Chief Minister Pinnari Vijayan defied history to win a second consecutive term in 2021.

The latest exit poll offers food for thought for political analysts who seem to give more importance to anti-incumbency.

 

 

  

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Comment on this article

  • Karen, Udupi/Mumbai

    Tue, Dec 06 2022

    The results for INC's Gujarat poll outcome is exactly the same as my own feeling when I fail the exam even after writing very well, for KSLU that is. I believe it is high time that the EVM's go as there seems to be widespread issues, since 2014.

    DisAgree [6] Agree [1] Reply Report Abuse

  • j.anata, Mangaluru / Bengaluru

    Tue, Dec 06 2022

    EVM lover spotted here

    DisAgree [1] Agree Reply Report Abuse

  • Pramod kumar, Manglore

    Tue, Dec 06 2022

    EVM worked fine in Wayanad, 3 state elections in 2018! EVM don't work wherever BJP wins, but works perfectly wherever Khangess wins!

    DisAgree [1] Agree [1] Reply Report Abuse

  • Alva, Mangalore

    Tue, Dec 06 2022

    I think your self confidence was too high (more than your actual performance in exams) during your exams.!

    DisAgree [1] Agree Reply Report Abuse

  • Vinod Kumar, Mangalore

    Mon, Dec 05 2022

    Pro-incumbency or anti-incumbency factor works only if people’s mandate is observed versus tampered EVMs and Operation Kamala mandate.

    DisAgree [9] Agree [6] Reply Report Abuse

  • Krishna, Udupi

    Mon, Dec 05 2022

    Vinod Let's wait man, will cry once result announced... An way we have atleast one issue to cry, not like AAP.. Tomorrow we will tell BJP winning record 7th time in Gujarat due to EVM

    DisAgree Agree [4] Reply Report Abuse

  • j.anata, Mangaluru / Bengaluru

    Tue, Dec 06 2022

    Frustration spotted here

    DisAgree [1] Agree Reply Report Abuse


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