Daijiworld Media Network - Jerusalem
Jerusalem, Oct 15: Two years after Hamas’s deadly assault on October 7, 2023, Israel stands at a complex crossroads — relief over the return of all 20 remaining hostages tempered by unease about the fragile Gaza peace plan now taking shape. Lieutenant Colonel Jonathan Conricus, former international spokesperson of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and currently a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), has called the latest developments “a strategic game changer,” but warned that “the hardest tests lie ahead.”
In an exclusive conversation with NDTV’s Aditya Raj Kaul, Conricus said he doubts Hamas will fully honour its commitments. “I’m a realist. I don’t expect Hamas to actually fulfill the agreement,” he remarked. While acknowledging the emotional and strategic significance of the hostages’ return, he criticised Hamas for “failing to hand over 28 bodies of murdered Israeli hostages, returning only four,” describing it as an early violation aimed at “prolonging phase one” of the peace process by exploiting the remains for political leverage.
According to Conricus, the deal’s roadmap is structured into four stages — the return of all hostages (living and deceased), disarmament of Hamas, removal of its governing role in Gaza, and finally, the establishment of an interim international administration. He stressed that these steps must occur sequentially, warning that “stage four cannot happen before stage two.” “No nation will send troops to stare down Hamas before it’s disarmed,” he cautioned, highlighting the limited international appetite for involvement that risks casualties.
If the truce collapses, Conricus predicts a dramatically different battlefield landscape. “Without Israeli hostages in Hamas’s tunnels, those tunnels will become death traps,” he said, adding that Israel would be free to employ “totally different tactics” if compelled to resume operations.
He also raised alarms over the prisoner releases included in the deal. While Israel declined to release top Hamas leaders, about 250 convicted militants — many serving multiple life sentences — have been freed. Conricus warned that Hamas is likely to rebuild its networks both in Gaza and in foreign safe havens. “Unless the world makes hostage-taking unprofitable through legal, diplomatic and military tools, other terror groups will follow the October 7 playbook,” he cautioned.
The former IDF spokesperson expressed scepticism over the role of certain regional actors such as Qatar and Turkey, accusing them of being “active supporters of Hamas.” On Pakistan’s involvement in an Islamic coalition backing the peace framework, Conricus linked it to “utilitarian deal-making” and alleged associations with proscribed groups. Yet, he conceded that the current diplomatic approach has yielded progress. “It has delivered results where other types have not,” he noted, urging that the plan be given “the benefit of the doubt” if its sequencing is properly implemented.
Speaking on India-Israel relations, Conricus expressed optimism about a deepening partnership beyond defence and counter-terrorism. He praised India’s growing global role, citing cooperation in fields such as agriculture, med-tech, and industry. “Shared democratic values and common threats create great room to grow,” he said, lauding India’s peacekeeping record and its “braver stand” on global issues in recent years.