Udupi-Chikmagalur Bypoll - Stakes High for Major Contenders
 
Special Correspondent
Daijiworld Media Network - Udupi

Udupi, Mar 17: About 12.45 lakh voters of Udupi-Chikmagalur constituency who will vote in the by poll scheduled for March 18th, will play a decisive role in giving a clear orientation to the political spectrum of Karnataka. The results of this bypoll assume importance mainly because it is viewed as a precursor for the forthcoming assembly and subsequent parliamentary elections. The results of this by- elections are sure to have far-reaching repercussions in Karnataka’s volatile political landscape.

Though there are 15 candidates in the fray, the stakes are high for the three major political parties - BJP, Congress and JD(S), which are pitted against one another in this election. For the scandal-tainted and BJP reeling under internal strife and open revolt by its former chief minister BSY, it will be an opportunity to test its popularity. For the Congress, which has almost faded into oblivion in the state, a win here would be a morale booster to its entire rank and file. After its debacle in the recent assembly elections in 3 states Congress leader Sonia Gandhi has clearly stated that its next focus would be on Udupi-Chikmagalur constituency. For long, Chikmagalur was Congress party’s fortress and the party is trying every possible trick to wrest it. This is evident from the fact that Congress bigwigs both central and state under the leadership of Sonia Gandhi’s close confidant Oscar Fernandes, are on the campaign trail in the constituency.

For the father son duo of JD (S) Deve Gowda and H D Kumaraswamy this bypoll will set the tempo for the party’s the 2013 assembly elections as the party is trying to expand its support base and emerge as a major player in the political canvas of the state. For JD(S) supremo Deve Gowda who is 80 plus this election will be an acid test and a good show here would clearly set the stage for the battle ahead – the 2013 assembly elections in the state and install his son in the chief minister’s gaddi.
 
There are individual stakes involved too as a win for BJP would help Chief Minister D V Sadananda Gowda to assert his supremacy and strengthen his position against former Chief Minister B S Yeddyurappa and his coterie. This bypoll is the first real acid test for the leadership of Sadananda Gowda because the election was is warranted by his vacating the seat soon after becoming the Chief Minister and it is believed that of Yeddyurappa’s men are working clandestinely to defeat its own party candidate.
 

Narrow win in its Fortress
 
For the BJP this coastal belt has proved to be its lucky mascot as Udupi was the first place where BJP (erstwhile Jana Sangh) had registered its first victory in any municipal elections in South India, thus sowing the seeds for the party’s growth. Even in the last assembly elections it had reaped rich rewards by winning 7 of the eight assembly constituencies of this Lok Sabha constituency. Interestingly, Sunil Kumar was the only candidate who lost the assembly seat Karkala in 2008, is the party’s candidate for the Udupi-Chikmagalur Lok Sabha by-election.

The situation this time around is different from what it was in 2008 in many ways. The only factor that was similar to the last election was the candidature of Congress candidate Jayaprakash Hegde who lost the last elections by merely 27,000 votes against BJP’s D V Sadananda Gowda, who was then BJP’s state President. As the constituency was new to D V S who had shifted from Mangalore to Udupi-Chickmagalur following delimitation, the entire Sangh Parivar had worked steadfastly to ensure his victory. Despite the presence of JD(S) candidate Boje Gowda, the real fight is going to be between the BJP and the Congress.
 
Sadananda Gowda was BJP’s candidate in 2008 and this time BJP has fielded former MLA Sunil Kumar who in fact satisfies the aspirations of people of both Udupi and Chikmagalur. Sunil was brought up and educated in Chikmagalur and that satisfies major grouse of people of that area and would be advantageous to the party. As BJP’s Karkala MLA, he is well known to the people of Udupi district also.

Udupi-Chickmagalur constituency has 8 assembly segments. The coastal belt has Udupi, Karkala, Kaup and Kundapur assembly segments while Malnad region has Mudigere, Chckmagalur, Sringeri ad Tarikere assemblies.
 
It may be remembered that Sadananda Gowda had faced stiff competition of Jayaprakash Hegde in 2008. Though JD (S) did not field its candidate then and it had extended its support to CPI candidate Radha Sundaresh, who had bagged about 25,000 votes and this vote was said to be crucial in the defeat of Jayaprakash Hegde.
 
Speaking to daijiworld.com BJP candidate Sunil Kumar stated that he is confident of his victory. “I bank on the 4 years achievement of our government and its people-friendly policies which have struck a chord among the poorer sections of the people”. He said neither the internal strife within the BJP nor the refusal of B S Yeddyurappa to campaign will have any bearing on his prospects. “I am a consensus candidate of the party and I have the blessings of all including Yeddyurappa. The good work of my party is sure to give me the advantage over my political opponents”, Sunil Kumar pointed out.
 
The constituency is dominated by Billavas in the coastal town of Udupi and Edigas in the Malnad region and both belong to the same category. Political parties, at least the BJP has taken this fact into consideration while choosing Sunil Kumar who is a Billava and has drawn the first blood. For the Congress ticket names of B L Shankar, Vinay Kumar Sorake and Taradevi apart from Jayaprakash Hegde were making rounds but finally Jayaprakash Hegde, known for his clean image, vast experience and affable nature, was chosen over other aspirants.
 

Hegde’s Clean Reputation
 
Jayaprakash Hegde speaking to daijiworld.com expressed confidence of winning the by-election by a margin of not less than 50,000 votes. “The political mood is different in this election due to various political developments in the course of last four years. It is not right to say the presence of JD(S) will be to our disadvantage as there is every possibility that JD(S) may take away votes of disgruntled BJP supporters. Moreover there are almost 70,000 votes of Lingayats who will play spoilsport for BJP”, Hegde stated. He also said that BJP which is facing internal revolt has lost the support of its traditional voters. He also said that his party has won over the loyalty of fishermen who form a sizeable chunk of voters. “The good work done by me in the past is helping me now and I am confident the people of the constituency will elect me with a good margin”, Hegde declared.

The caste factor is sure to play a pivotal role in this by-election. There are about 70,000 Lingayat votes and about 80,000 votes of Vokkaligas and Dalits each apart from billavas who form of the majority of voters. Due to Yeddyurappa factor Lingayats supporting the BJP is doubtful and who they will vote will be interesting to watch out. Muslims, Brahmins and Kurubas also have almost same number of voters and whichever party is able to win over allegiance and convert them into votes will romp home to victory. Since JD (S) has fielded a Vokkaliga candidate one expects the community to vote for the candidate. Needless to say JD(S) is banking on the support of Vokkaligas, Muslims and Dalits. It means there is every chance of JD(S) candidate polling a sizeable portion of votes and that is not good news for Sunil Kumar or Jayaprakash Hegde.

The RSS has a strong base in Udupi-Chikmagalur and its cadre is known for carrying out a systematic but low-key campaign and that is the plus point for Sunil Kumar. Congress is however, banking on Hegde’s clean image and the scandal-ridden rule of the BJP. The fact that he had lost by a narrow margin last time has bolstered the party morale. The party leaders have buried their differences (at least for the time being) presenting a façade of collective leadership during the election campaign.
 
Needless to say the stakes are high for the major contenders in the fray. The BJP wants to bask in the glory of its past record and maintain the momentum of victory as a defeat here would spoil the candidate’s prospects for 2013 assembly elections apart from making Sadananda Gowda’s position shaky. For the Congress the misrule or non-governance and the many scandals of BJP have provided enough fodder to attack its major opponent and brighten its own prospects.
 
The ball is now in the court of the electorate and March 18 will decide who is going to win the fruits of the hard labour.

On the Poll Trail:

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• Udupi: Bypoll Campaign Goes Glamourous as Ramya, Bhavana, Lokesh Join in 
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• Kundapur: JD(S) will Win Lok Sabha Bypoll - Kumaraswamy
• Udupi: JD(S) Supremo Deve Gowda Descends on Bypoll Field
• Udupi: 'Heights' of Electioneering - Now, Camel Enters the Poll Scene!
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• Udupi: Congress Bigwigs Siddaramaiah, Parameshwar Join Bypoll Battle 
• Karkala: Bypoll - Race Hots up, CM Sadananda Gowda Joins Campaign 
• Udupi Bypoll: Young Candidate Asadulla Katpady Attempts to Turn the Tide 
• Udupi: Former MLA U R Sabhapati Joins JD(S), Party Hails Move
• Udupi: JD(S) Presence Advantageous, says BJP, Cong Releases List of Govt Scams 
• Udupi : 7 Withdraw, 14 in Fray for Bypoll
• Chikmagalur: Jayaprakash Hegde, Congress Activists Assaulted, Chased 
• Udupi Bypoll: Four Observers to Receive Complaints, Objections 
• Bangalore: KPCC Wants Curbs on BJP Malpractices in Udupi-Chikmagalur Bypoll 
• Udupi: BJP Convention - Former MP Manorama Madhwaraj Back in Party 
• Udupi Bypoll - BJP Candidate Sunil Kumar Files Nomination, Opens Malpe Office
• Udupi: Vidhana Soudha Not Yeddyurappa's Father's Property - Kumaraswamy
• Udupi: Lok Sabha Bypoll – Expenses of Candidates under Close Scrutiny 
• Udupi: Congress Leaders Take Digs at State Govt, Urge Party Workers to Ensure Win
• Udupi Bypoll - Congress Candidate Jayaprakash Hegde Files Nomination
• Udupi Bypoll - JDS Confirms Boje Gowda as Official Candidate
• Udupi: Oscar to Oversee Preparations for Lok Sabha Bypoll
• Udupi: For Astrological Reasons, BJP's Sunil Kumar Files 'Dummy' Nomination 
• Udupi: JD(S) to File Nomination for Bypoll on Feb 28 - Kumaraswamy 
• Bangalore: Udupi Bypoll - JD(S) Youth Leader Madhu Bangarappa Not to Contest 
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• Bangalore: Udupi-Chikmagalur Bypoll Delays Karnataka Budget for 2012-13 
• Udupi-Chikmagalur Bypoll on March 18, Results on 21