New Delhi, June 4 (IANS): Refuting IMD's claim that the country's northwest, which includes Delhi, Haryana, western Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan, would receive 85 percent of the average rain, private weather forecaster Skymet said on Thursday that the region will receive average rainfall.
In an interview to IANS, Skymet founder and CEO Jatin Singh that so far, rainfall in June and July looked okay and there was no need to press the panic button.
"I don't think a big swathe of states will be affected. The monsoon will be normal. June-July so far look okay," he said.
The official forecast of a 12 percent rain deficit pan-India and a 15 percent deficit in the northwestern region during this monsoon season caused much concern over possible crop failure, drought, inflation and an overall adverse impact on the economy.
Singh was however more optimistic.
"I don't think that we need to panic. We should just sit tight and by the end of June, people will realise that it is raining," he said.
While the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that monsoon is likely to be 88 percent of the long period average rainfall in 2015, Skymet estimates it at 102 percent.
Skymet employs statistical and dynamic mechanisms to forecast weather and claims to have a success rate of 100 percent.
"In each year since 2012, our monsoon forecast has been right. We had predicted that 2012 will see below normal (average) rainfall, while 2013 will get normal (average)rain, and 2014 will be a drought year. All our forecasts came out to be true," said Singh.
Asked about the varying forecasts given by the IMD and Skymet, Singh said that both agencies used same mechanisms to forecast weather.
"We are working on the same information base but how you put them together that differentiates one from the other," he said.
Singh also downplayed the El Nino threat and said it was unlikely that the country would face a drought.
"A lot of people are thinking that there might be a deficit this year because of El Nino. But there is a phenomenon called the Indian Ocean dipole which basically means that if the Indian Ocean warms up, it might be able to insulate us (from El Nino). This is my hypothesis," he said.
"Right now, I am giving a very good calculated guess that the monsoon will be normal (average). By mid-July, I will tell you if it's going to be normal (average) or not, for sure. Monsoon is irregular but not sluggish," he added.
Union Science and Technology Minister Harsh Vardhan had said Tuesday that rains during this monsoon was likely to be below normal-to-deficient at 88 percent - plus or minus 4 percent - of the average rainfall.