Fund outflows, oil prices to sink rupee further; 75-mark in sight


Mumbai, Oct 7 (IANS): The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) stance, along with an expected hike in the US lending rates and high crude oil prices are expected to further exert pressure on the Indian rupee in the coming week, experts say.

In addition, the continuous outflow of foreign funds from the equity segment and global market volatility will likely push the rupee to the 75-mark to a US dollar in the coming days, the experts opined.

Conversely, RBI interventions in the spot market via intermediaries might somewhat arrest the sharp decline in the rupee's value, but a range of 73.5-75 per US dollar is expected.

In the week gone by, the rupee touched a fresh low of over 74 to a US dollar in the spot market. It settled at a record closing low of 73.77 (73.7675) per US dollar on Friday, October 5.

"The RBI's new policy stance, stress on the NBFC sector and expectations of more rate hikes by the US Fed are expected to weigh heavy on the Indian rupee," Anindya Banerjee, Deputy Vice President for Currency and Interest Rates with Kotak Securities, told IANS.

"Volatility is also expected to flare-up from the RBI's side as it is expected to heavily intervene in the market to arrest any abrupt movements. The expected range for next week is 73.5-75 per USD (spot)."

The RBI on Friday belied market expectations of a rate hike. However, the "neutral" stance of monetary policy was changed to "calibrated tightening", which triggered a massive sell-off in the equities market.

According to Madhavi Arora, Economist, FX and Rates, Edelweiss Securities, the RBI is of the view that it should let underlying trade competitiveness improve gradually as the trade-weighted exchange rate acts as a natural stabiliser.

"The RBI also subtly suggested that FX markets are fluid and should let rupee decide it's own equilibrium. While the rupee comfortably crossed 74 on policy day, it did close sub-74, largely owing to FX interventions," Arora told IANS.

"The coming weeks would see pressure on the rupee continuing as external and domestic conditions remain unfavourable for the currency. We do not rule out the rupee crossing 75 and would watch out for assertive policy actions by the government or RBI if the currency continues to remain an EM (emerging markets) outlier."

Besides, high oil prices might not allow the rupee to make any substantial recovery. On Friday, Brent crude was priced over $84 per barrel.

"The rupee is expected to remain under pressure during the next week as the RBI monetary policy has disappointed the market," said Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers' Research Analyst Rushabh Maru.

"Rising crude oil prices and the strength in the dollar index might keep the rupee under pressure. The short-term range is expected to be in the 73.20 to 74.80 band."

Apart from global cues, any further outflow of foreign funds from the Indian equity and bond markets might have an adverse impact on the rupee.

In terms of investments, provisional figures from the stock exchanges showed that foreign institutional investors sold scrips worth Rs 9,522.44 crore during the week ended October 5.

On a weekly basis, the rupee closed at 73.77, weaker by Rs 1.29 from its previous week's close of 72.48 per greenback.

  

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Comment on this article

  • PN Badhri, CHENNAI

    Mon, Oct 08 2018

    At the outset government clueless to solve economic mess and blame game as usual virtue of BJP leaders. Rupee will breach Rs 80 against dollar by December and marathon race between rupee and petrol rates to cross Rstitch. 100 winning post.our PM/FM capable to achieve the goal.

    DisAgree Agree Reply Report Abuse

  • Rolf, Dubai

    Sun, Oct 07 2018

    Tell the thruth is busy in teaching sanscrith to cows and monkey which he promised to full fill in 2019 election .

    DisAgree Agree Reply Report Abuse

  • Flavian, Mangaluru/Kuwait

    Sun, Oct 07 2018

    @ mohan, Mangalore
    Rightly said.
    Most of the bhakts do not understand the critical situation Indian economy is facing. They are worried only only about BJP winning the elections. Gone...........

    DisAgree Agree [17] Reply Report Abuse

  • Flavian, Mangaluru/Kuwait

    Sun, Oct 07 2018

    By year end it could be 100 + mark.
    Here only talk of the town is today Rs 243, another day 244..............(against KWD)
    People are thrilled and remittance is in full swing.
    Have come across some corporate guys avail loan against indemnity, PF etc. and remit Rs. to India. Golden opportunity.

    DisAgree Agree [7] Reply Report Abuse

  • sri_elder, Karkala

    Sun, Oct 07 2018

    Flavian- when you work in Kuwait you ask your employer to pay 25% in KWD and rest 75% in INR..
    Please show your desh bhakthi...
    Kuwait companies should accept INR when they do business with India and pay salary in INR to Indian employees..
    Then Rupees will gain automatic strength..
    But you people are westernized 😎

    DisAgree [6] Agree [1] Reply Report Abuse

  • prem, moodbidri

    Sun, Oct 07 2018

    Indian economy is on 'Nalla Gas' generated by Feku!

    DisAgree Agree [12] Reply Report Abuse

  • mohan, Mangalore

    Sun, Oct 07 2018

    To maintain falling economy RBI already exchanged millions of foreign currency..... now nothing us balance with reserve bank except reserved gold.. .. .I thing now RBI trying to sell reserved gold to maintain rupee..
    Economy us so worse within few months it will reach worse than chandrashekar regime.... and rupee value will reach to 100 against dollar..

    DisAgree Agree [16] Reply Report Abuse

  • sri_elder, Karkala

    Sun, Oct 07 2018

    We didn't complain when dollar rate moved from 39 to 68 during 2011..
    68 to 75 just 10% increment...

    DisAgree [42] Agree [6] Reply Report Abuse

  • Mangalurian, Mangaluru

    Sun, Oct 07 2018

    One dollar bought:
    * 1993 Rs 30.49
    * 2003 Rs 46.58
    * 2013 Rs 56.57

    In just four years of BJP rule , it has moved from Rs 56 to 75.

    Ihe Gujju-bhai can be excused. If I had the same education, I would be silent too!
    The FM is a lawyer with no understanding of economics.

    DisAgree Agree [32] Reply Report Abuse

  • PN Badhri, CHENNAI

    Mon, Oct 08 2018

    At the outset government clueless to solve economic mess and blame game as usual virtue of BJP leaders.

    DisAgree [1] Agree [1] Reply Report Abuse

  • Thomas, Udupi

    Sun, Oct 07 2018

    My dear Feku, that time crude oil price was USD 140 and now 60 do you know that? Please dont eat pokada all the time eat sometime burgers.

    DisAgree Agree [26] Reply Report Abuse

  • gm, mlur

    Sun, Oct 07 2018

    Here no question of complaining or not. Only counts acche din. People (opposition leaders) came on the streets with plates, handi (vessel) and chamcha (big spoons) (bottondither) when the price hiked for some commodities.

    DisAgree Agree [11] Reply Report Abuse

  • Thanzeel, India

    Sun, Oct 07 2018

    In 2011, it was 39?

    Told by your FEKU!!!

    DisAgree Agree [14] Reply Report Abuse

  • prem, moodbidri

    Sun, Oct 07 2018

    Great findings sri.... beyond excellence !

    But, sorry to say, you just fall behind man... one economist who is die hard feku fan, said last week "Even if value of Rs become 80 against 1 Dollar, our economy will not shake. We can manage"!

    DisAgree [2] Agree [16] Reply Report Abuse

  • Praveen, mangalore

    Sun, Oct 07 2018

    Oh Modi Gulama..when Modi took power in 2014 1$=58Rs...(28% increase) and Modi fooled nation by telling he wil bring down dollar rate and our 8th pass MP Nalin shetty told after BJP wins thy wil make available 15$ for jst 1rs ( Rs1=15$)

    DisAgree Agree [1] Reply Report Abuse

  • HENRY MISQUITH, Bahrain

    Sun, Oct 07 2018

    The rising fuel prices and rupeee in ICU will be the cause of BJP loosing coming assembly elections followed by total rout in 2019. Just wait and keep patience folks.

    DisAgree [1] Agree [23] Reply Report Abuse

  • Mangalurian, Mangaluru

    Sun, Oct 07 2018

    "Apart from global cues, any further outflow of foreign funds from the Indian equity and bond markets might have an adverse impact on the rupee." says the article.

    Not MIGHT, but WILL.

    Any desire on the part of the foreign investors to offload their shares will start buckling the several legs on which the economy survives.

    There is nothing much RBI can do once the flight of the foreign investment accelerates.

    So, higher inflation is a natural consequence. With the higher inflation the rupee will lose its value even faster than caused by foreign direct factors.

    Not a pretty sight for BJP as the Lok Sabha elections are getting ever closer. Even the most die-hard supporters of the party will have a rethink.

    DisAgree [3] Agree [16] Reply Report Abuse

  • Narendra dhoni, Udupi

    Sun, Oct 07 2018

    Let us all sip chai, eat pakodas and praise Fekuji....

    DisAgree [1] Agree [32] Reply Report Abuse

  • Ravi C, Mangalore

    Sun, Oct 07 2018

    I don’t think this will have any impact on BJP share of votes. Congress unable to take the advantage of situation and because congress is led by leaders like RG, BJP can easily win any election even though rupee and petrol reaches 100+.

    Think seriously before clicking on disagree. It won’t change election result but at least you will be able to understand the reality.

    A friend of mine said that he will still vote for BJP not because of its performance but he does not want to hand over this country to a leader like RG. As per a survey 95% of randpmbly selected people gave the same opinion..

    DisAgree [38] Agree [5] Reply Report Abuse

  • gm, mlur

    Sun, Oct 07 2018

    I agree with you, EVM's are there na.

    DisAgree Agree [20] Reply Report Abuse

  • Rathan, Mangalore

    Sun, Oct 07 2018

    gm
    Old joke
    Now start to find a new reason for upcoming defeat

    DisAgree [14] Agree Reply Report Abuse

  • gm, mlur

    Sun, Oct 07 2018

    Old but true.

    DisAgree [1] Agree [11] Report Abuse

  • Vincent Rodrigues, Katapadi/Bangalore

    Sun, Oct 07 2018

    Uncontrolled and unmanaged government duties is the present reflexes we find in our economy which need to be arrested before going things out of our hand.

    DisAgree [1] Agree [12] Reply Report Abuse

  • ray, Mangalore

    Sun, Oct 07 2018

    The words from our representative is going to be vice versa!!!

    DisAgree Agree [12] Reply Report Abuse


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