MIAMI (BNO NEWS) -- Hurricane Jova weakened on Tuesday as its center approached the Pacific coast of Mexico, forecasters said, but hurricane conditions were already affecting parts of the coast on late Tuesday evening.
Forecasters at the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) have been following the weather system since October 4 when it emerged as an area of disturbed weather several hundred miles (kilometers) south-southwest of Acapulco, a major sea port on the Pacific Coast of Mexico. It quickly became a tropical storm on Thursday, a hurricane on Saturday and a major hurricane on Monday.
As of 8 p.m. PDT (0300 GMT Wednesday), the center of Jova was located about 60 miles (95 kilometers) west of Manzanillo, a municipality in the Mexican state of Colima which is also home to the country's busiest port. It is moving toward the north-northeast at a speed near 8 miles (13 kilometers) per hour.
Maximum sustained winds of Jova have decreased to near 100 miles (160 kilometers) per hour, with higher gusts, making it a category two hurricane on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale of intensity. Little change in strength is expected before the hurricane makes landfall in Mexico.
"Water vapor imagery continues to depict a well-defined upper-tropospheric outflow pattern, and the hurricane is over very warm waters," said NHC senior hurricane specialist Richard Pasch. "No significant weakening is likely until the center of Jova crossed the coastline. Once inland, the tropical cyclone should weaken quite rapidly over the rugged terrain of western Mexico."
Tropical storm conditions were already affecting parts of the Mexican coastline on Tuesday evening, and hurricane conditions began to affect some areas. Weather conditions of areas further inland were expected to worsen overnight.
As of Tuesday evening, a hurricane warning was in effect for Punta San Telmo in southwestern Michoacán northward to Cabo Corrientes, a cape on the Pacific coast of the Mexican state of Jalisco. A tropical storm warning is also in effect for Lazaro Cardenas northward to south of Punta San Telmo. Additionally, a tropical storm warning is in effect from north of Cabo Corrientes to El Roblito.
"Jova is moving on the western side of a weak mid-tropospheric ridge over eastern Mexico," Pasch explained. "Global models show this ridge mostly dissipated in a day or so, as another ridge develops to the north of Jova. This steering pattern should cause the cyclone to slow its forward speed to a crawl within 24 to 36 hours."
He added: "Although wind and surge are obviously a significant hazard along the coast, inland flooding over Mexico is also a big concern. Heavy rains from Jova are likely across portions of western Mexico due to the relatively slow movement of the cyclone and upslope flow into the mountainous terrain. These rains will likely cause dangerous flash floods and mudslides."
The NHC said it expects Jova to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches (15 to 30 centimeters) over the states of Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches (50 centimeters).
Thousands of people evacuated ahead of Jova's anticipated arrival, but many decided to ride out the storm. Some areas were already experiencing flooding on Tuesday, but there were no immediate reports of casualties with the worst yet to come. More than 1,500 soldiers have been called in to assist with expected relief efforts.
Jova is the ninth named storm of the 2011 Eastern Pacific hurricane season. It was followed by Hurricane Irwin which remains active as a tropical storm, about 600 miles (970 kilometers) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, and might affect the same area as Jova later this week.
According to figures released in May, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is expecting a below normal hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific this year. The outlook calls for 9 to 15 named storms, with five to eight becoming hurricanes and one to three expected to become a major hurricane (category 3 or higher).
An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season produces 15 to 16 named storms, with eight to nine becoming hurricanes and four becoming major hurricanes. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15 through November 30, with peak activity from July through September.