Daijiworld Media Network - Thiruvananthapuram
Thiruvananthapuram, OCt 26: Kerala’s tropical monsoon climate zone has expanded over the past seven decades, even as the state recorded a significant rainfall deficit during this year’s southwest monsoon, according to a study by Indian meteorologists.
The study, conducted by scientists from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, analysed temperature and rainfall data spanning 1951 to 2020.
The findings revealed that the tropical monsoon climate zone, associated with some of the highest rainfall in the country, had spread into more areas along the western coast, including Kerala. The study highlights the contrast between long-term climate trends and seasonal variations in rainfall.
Despite a general long-term increase in rainfall across southern India, Kerala received 28 per cent less rain than normal during the June-September southwest monsoon this year.
The state recorded 1,446.5 mm of rainfall against the normal 2,018.6 mm, making it the seventh-lowest southwest monsoon rainfall recorded in Kerala since official records began in 1901.
The rainfall deficit varied significantly across districts. Wayanad recorded a shortfall of 53 per cent, while Idukki received 47 per cent less rainfall than normal. Only six districts recorded rainfall within the normal range.
The deficient monsoon has raised concerns over water availability, including reservoir levels and groundwater resources, as well as the possibility of agricultural stress in the coming months.
The study emphasised the need to incorporate changing climate patterns into long-term agricultural planning. Shifts in climate zones can affect crop suitability and sowing schedules, requiring farmers and planners to adapt to changing conditions.
Ananya Karmakar, the IMD scientist who led the study, and IMD Director General of Meteorology Mrutyunjay Mohapatra stressed the importance of considering long-term climate trends alongside variations in individual monsoon seasons.
Weather phenomena such as El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole can influence rainfall patterns from year to year. Therefore, an overall increase in rainfall over the long term does not guarantee adequate precipitation in every season.
The researchers noted that changes in climate zones have significant implications for water resource management and agricultural planning.
For Kerala, the findings underline the need to prepare for shifting rainfall patterns while remaining vigilant against both droughts and extreme rainfall events. The study calls for long-term planning based on scientific assessments of climate trends and seasonal variations to safeguard agriculture and water resources against future climate-related risks.