Daijiworld Media Network - Washington

Washington, Aug 26: As tensions simmer between Washington and New Delhi over tariffs and oil trade, the nomination of Sergio Gor — a close aide to former President Donald Trump — as the next US Ambassador to India has stirred both anticipation and concern in policy circles. According to Bill Drexel, a leading India-US relations expert at the Hudson Institute, Gor’s appointment could become a strategic conduit between the White House and South Block — or merely a political reward with uncertain diplomatic impact.

In an interview, Drexel described Gor as an “unknown quantity” in foreign policy, but underscored the significance of his direct access to Trump. “He’s very close to Trump. That alone suggests we could see a more direct line from India to the White House. That could strengthen the relationship — or at least speed up communication,” Drexel said. “But it also fits a pattern of rewarding loyalty with top diplomatic posts.”

Gor, currently serving as director of the White House Presidential Personnel Office, was nominated not only as Ambassador to India but also as Special Envoy for South and Central Asia — a dual role that could reshape US engagement with the region.

The nomination comes amid escalating trade tensions, with the US set to impose 50% tariffs on Indian exports and additional penalties related to India's continued import and refining of Russian oil. India's External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar responded defiantly last week, saying, “If you have a problem buying oil or refined products from India, don't buy it.”

Drexel warned that the deepening stalemate over trade could derail broader strategic cooperation between the two democracies. “Economics is just one dimension — but it’s core. If that fails, the entire relationship could unravel,” he said.

He also voiced concern over what he called a “strategic catastrophe in the making,” citing the risk that both countries may dig in on red lines, ultimately walking away from a deal. “The danger is that no one blinks, and both sides say, ‘no deal’. That would be disastrous,” Drexel cautioned.

The scholar, who co-authored a recent article with former US ambassador Nikki Haley calling for a reset in India-US relations, noted that China could benefit most from the rift. “The Chinese Communist Party would like nothing more than to divide India and the US. They’ll try to present themselves as a better partner — but it’s not sustainable,” he said, highlighting that India and China remain “natural adversaries.”

Drexel also pointed to broader irritants — including US-Pakistan military ties and controversies around the India-Pakistan ceasefire — which he said further strain bilateral trust. While acknowledging these issues may be uncoordinated, he stressed that the timing of multiple flashpoints makes them harder to manage diplomatically.

Despite the challenges, Drexel expressed cautious optimism. “Trump has shown he’s open to sudden, sweeping policy shifts. A win-win reversal is still possible.”

He concluded with a reminder of the longer-term trajectory: “The foundations of the India-US relationship are strong. The structure may be shaking, but the strategic logic endures. For over 25 years, this partnership has been one of America’s most consistent, bipartisan priorities. We’ll return to it — the question is when.”