Daijiworld Media Network - Mumbai
Mumbai, Mar 1: Mounting hostilities between Israel and Iran are likely to cast a shadow over Indian equity markets in the coming sessions, with analysts warning that rising crude oil prices could be the primary trigger for near-term volatility.
Market experts believe sectors heavily dependent on fuel and input costs — including oil marketing companies, aviation, paints, automobiles, consumer discretionary and logistics — may come under pressure if tensions in the Middle East persist. Investors are closely monitoring whether the situation escalates into a prolonged conflict or eases in the short term, as geopolitical flare-ups typically spark cautious sentiment and selling activity.
Crude oil prices have already edged higher amid fears of supply disruptions through the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz, hovering around $67–$68 per barrel after gaining nearly 2 per cent. Analysts caution that if prices sustain above the $80 mark, it could create substantial macroeconomic challenges for India, one of the world’s largest oil importers. Elevated crude prices may stoke inflationary pressures and compress corporate profit margins.
That said, certain pockets of the market could see selective buying. Energy producers and defence-related stocks often benefit during periods of geopolitical uncertainty. Safe-haven assets such as gold, silver and US Treasury bonds are also expected to attract increased investor interest.
Adding to the uncertainty are reports surrounding succession in Iran following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with his son Mojtaba Khamenei reportedly emerging as a potential successor.
On the technical front, analysts noted that the NIFTY 50 has weakened after slipping below its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), a key long-term indicator.
Immediate resistance for the index is pegged in the 25,300–25,350 zone, while firm support is seen around 25,000–25,050. Market strategists suggest that holding above the support band could help stabilise sentiment. However, a decisive breach below this range may open the door to further downside.
With markets shut for Holi, the weekly Nifty derivatives expiry has shifted to Monday, compressing the trading schedule. Analysts note that such calendar adjustments can intensify short-term trading activity, potentially keeping volatility elevated in the upcoming session.