By Florine Roche

Mangaluru, Dec 31:That Indian politics continues to be a complex affair is evident from the political developments of the past one year which witnessed many ups and downs. Elections in India, the largest democracy in the world, are often described as carnival due to the large electorate that partakes in the process of electing its representatives. Though elections to the parliament and to the state assemblies take place every five years due to the federal structure of our democracy and coalition compulsions often results in midterm elections. As a result elections to the state assemblies continue to be a regular affair. In 2018 elections were held in 9 states spread over the entire year and the mixed result of these elections has given a complete twist to the election scenario in the country. It has given a new lease of life to the embattled Congress and has kindled political aspirations of regional satraps who are eyeing for an opportune moment to make foray into national politics. 

Come 2019 and the country is going to witness another electoral spectacle as the general elections are slated for the first half of the year when the term of the present government comes to an end. The BJP which is in power at the centre since 2014 coasted victories in most of the assembly elections in the first four years and it continued to be formidable political force till the beginning of 2018. However its electoral fortunes began to falter in the first of 2018 with a series of loss in by-elections in different states. BJP’s failure to form government despite emerging as the single largest party and the drama that ensured was a big blow to the party.

For the beleaguered BJP which looked invincible till then, the yearend results of 5 states were like a deathblow. The party lost three important states in the Hindi heartland paving the way for the revival of the Congress party whose fortunes were on the downhill in the last 4 years. As a result of these developments it can be rightly said that the year 2018 has been a game changer to the BJP and the Congress and also to the regional parties.

A Flashback on 2018

For the BJP the year 2018 began with bright note with a thumping victory in February 2018 in Tripura in a one to one contest putting an end to the 25 years of uninterrupted rule of the Communist Party of India. In the Nagaland assembly elections also the BJP tasted victory winning 12 seats and it formed the government along with National Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP). The Congress failed even to open its account both in Tripura and Nagaland. In Meghalaya too the BJP opened its account winning two seats and then played a catalytic role by stitching a mega alliance to form the government and outwitted the Congress which had emerged as the single largest party with 21 seats (one less than National People’s Party (NPP).

The 2018 by-election result was indeed a wakeup call to the BJP which failed to read the writings on the wall. By-elections were held for 13 parliamentary seats this year out of which BJP had managed to win only 3 seats. It lost two parliamentary seats and an Assembly seat in Rajasthan in February 2018 and that too by huge margins. That clearly sounded the warning bells for the BJP in Rajasthan. This was followed by the results of the assembly by-election held in March in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar and then in Maharashtra which gave a big jolt to the BJP juggernaut. The party had lost four of the five seats including the prestigious Gorakhpur and Phulpur seats in Uttar Pradesh. The loss of two parliamentary seats in Gorakhpur which was till then represented by Chief Minister Yogi Adithyanath and Phulpur represented by Dy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya was a major setback as the party was trounced by the combined force of BSP-backed Samajwadi Party. The setback was complete after the BJP suffered another humiliating defeat in Kairana Lok Sabha seat to the combined might of the grand alliance in May this year.

In Bihar too the BJP lost Araria parliamentary seat and Jehanabad assembly seat though it had consolation victory in Bhabua assembly seat. The loss of Bhandara-Gondia parliamentary seat to NCP candidate completed the ignominy for the BJP. The only solace was winning the two assembly seats in Madhya Pradesh though with a reduced victory margin.

Big jolt in Karnataka

The winning streak of BJP in state assembly elections came to an abrupt end in Karnataka where despite emerging as the single largest party with 104 seats it was outmaneuvered by the Congress. Having learnt a bitter lesson, the Congress paid back to the BJP in the same coin and formed a coalition government with the JD (S) thus dashing BJP’s hopes of forming a government in the south. Though JD (S) secured the Chief Minister’s post it is an open secret that it is the Congress which is indirectly controlling the government in Karnataka. The roller coaster ride of the alliance of convenience continues in Karnataka notwithstanding the fissures that surface every now and then threatening the stability of the coalition government.

After the Karnataka debacle the result of the assembly elections in 5 states in December 2018 has put the BJP on the defensive. These results proved crucial both for the BJP and the Congress – the two main contenders. Needless to say the result has changed the political atmosphere and one can expect the realignment of many political parties. The Congress is back with a bang winning 3 major states in the Hindi heartland. Its loss in Mizoram making the North East Congress Mukt and its miserable performance in Telengana got obscured under the thumping victories in 3 major states in the northern belt, considered to be BJP’s bastions. The result of these by-elections coming ahead of the crucial general elections in 2019 has revitalized the Congress bringing it back into the reckoning for the battle ahead.

Though the Indian political scene has altered considerably it is too early to write political obituaries or sing paeans of any political party. The electorate is wise enough to vote differently in assembly and in general elections and we have enough precedents to this effect. It was not a convincing victory for the Congress in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh and therefore it cannot bask in the glory of winning the three states. Narendra Modi’s popularity is still intact and there is no public disenchantment unlike in the three states which the Congress managed to win. There is no challenger in the opposition who is capable of matching Modi’s political acumen and charisma, at least at present. The BJP is in power in 16 states and that in itself is an indication that party is a force to reckon with.

Down but not out

Therefore it is not an easy task for the Congress to underestimate and challenge the BJP which has a strong base in many states. Its victories in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan did not come easily. In Madhya Pradesh even after 13 years of rule the BJP gave a tough fight to the Congress with only a handful of seats separating the winner from the loser. Ditto with Rajasthan where the BJP came up with a credible performance much against media predictions.

No doubt the Congress is boisterous and will go all out in its efforts to usurp power. It will certainly go in accordance with the phrase “kicking a man hard when he is down” and applying it to the BJP. But Rahul must come out of his obsession of criticizing Modi for everything and has to launch a coherent issue- based campaign if it wants to replicate its recent success.

The Mahaghatbandhan at the moments at least, looks like an unachievable chimera. Leaders of regional parties like Naidu, Chandrashekar Rao, Mamtha Banerjee, Mayavati and Deve Gowda with an eye on national politics are trying to unite the opposition. But ultimately, when it comes to government formation if and when it happens, most of them will side with the self-styled secular parties rather than going with the BJP.

The stage is all set for a high voltage election in 2019 and one can expect the major political parties to resort to populist measures to woo the voters. Development agenda would certainly take a backseat in favour of populist promises which have a deleterious impact in the long run. It is sue, the General Elections 2019 will certainly live up to the expectations of a ‘spectacle’ or a carnival having no parallels in the world.