Will Yeddyurappa Survive? Odds are Not Favourable
Gabriel Vaz
Daijiworld Media Network - Bangalore
Bangalore, Oct 10: Will the 28-month-old BJP government headed by chief minister B S Yeddyurpapa survive the crucial floor test on Monday October 11?
This is the question that is being asked by almost all politically aware people of the state, especially after the ongoing political drama and hopping of disgruntled BJP legislators and independent from place to place, city to city and state to state.
The first-ever saffron government in the south, which came into being on May 30, 2008, will be facing its second floor test in accordance with state governor H R Bhardwaj’s directions to the chief minister to prove his majority on the floor of the state Legislative Assembly by Tuesday October 12, 5 pm after as many as 19 MLAs, including 5 independents, had informed him in writing of their decision to withdraw support to the Yeddyurappa regime on October 6.
The BJP, which secured 110 seats – three short of a simple majority – in the 224 member assembly in the May 2008 elections had been asked by the then governor Rameshwar Thakur to prove his majority in the House despite all the 6 independents had extended unconditional support to enable Yeddyurappa to be sworn in as the chief minister. Accordingly, the Yeddyurappa regime had passed the floor test on June 6, 2008. The party-wise strength after the May 2008 elections was: BJP 110, Congress 80, JD(S) 28 and independents 6.
'Operation Kamala'
Subsequently, the BJP had resorted to the widely criticised ''Operation Kamala” (Kannada for the party’s electoral symbol Lotus) to lure legislators elected on Congress and JD(S) tickets to resign their seats with offers of cabinet ministerial berths and other attractive posts besides even huge sums of money and ask them to contest from the party in the byelections thereby increase the ruling party’s strength to 117. Consequently, the strength of the Congress and JD(S) was correspondingly reduced. Also, some of the MLAs got elected to the Lok Sabha in the May 2009 elections. Thus, the party position in the state assembly got altered to: BJP 117, Congress 73, JD(S) 28 and independents 6. Of the 6 independents, Varthur Prakash had dissociated himself from BJP and had joined JD(S), a few months back.
But that is history and a matter of record. The state of flux caused by the present political tamasha is an entirely different matter. What is evident is that the chief minister and the ruling party is leaving no stone unturned to muster support and prove his majority in the assembly, while the dissidents backed by former chief minister and state JD(S) chief minister H D Kumaraswamy, who has emerged as the mastermind of the entire ''Operation Destabilisation” for ousting Yeddyurappa with the tacit support from Congress opposition leader in the assembly and former deputy chief minister Siddaramaiah and other party leaders, are determined to pack off Yeddyurappa lock, stock and barrel.
Role of Bellary Reddy Brothers
Surprisingly, the all powerful Bellary mining lords – ministers Gali Janardhana Reddy, Gali Karunakara Reddy and their associate B Sriramulu, who had almost ousted Yeddyurappa by launching the most determined dissident struggle last year and were finally persuaded to compromise by BJP’s opposition leader in Lok Sabha Sushma Swaraj, have also entered the fray. This time, however, the Bellary Reddys are keen to save Yeddyurappa lest their mining activities, which are already facing a series of hurdles both within the state and outside and even from Lokayukta and the Supreme Court, might be completely halted. However, the Reddy Brothers too have been unsuccessful and had to give up their ''Save Yeddyurappa” campaign disappointed.
Curiously, what began as a routine pressure-tactic and even blackmail attempt by Yeddyurappa’s one-time blue-eyed boy turned dissident turned loyalist after becoming the Excise minister M P Renukacharya, has gone out of his control. He himself has become isolated and rejected by the dissidents, including his close friend and BJP MLA from Sagar in Shimoga district Belur Gopalakrishna, and ministers Balachandra Jarkiholi and Anand Asnotikar have ditched him.
Kumaraswamy is the 'Mastermind'
With Kumaraswamy shedding all his inhibitions and openly associating with the dissidents, and Jarkiholi and Asnotikar taking control of the dissident group, an isolated and dejected Renukacharya had to sheepishly go back to the Yeddyurappa camp all alone. Incidentally, the dissidence movement had its moments of intrigue and drama with former minister S K Bellubbi hopping from camp to camp, and four-time BJP MLA H S Shankaralinge Gowda, who represents the Chamaraja constituency in Mysore district, even going to the extent of allegedly consuming poison unable to bear the emotional pressure tactics adopted by the ruling party by employing his son and Mysore city corporator Preetham not to desert Yeddyurappa.
Yeddyurappa’s efforts to quell the rebellion and threaten the dissidents with disqualification did not bear fruits. His decision of sacking the four independent ministers and subsequently dropping another two BJP ministers did not get the desired results. There was a direct fall-out and confrontation between Renukacharya and his supporters led by Jarkiholi and Asnotikar. All that Yeddyurappa could manage was to win back the support of two of the disgruntled MLAs Doddanagouda Patil and B P Harish. Apparently, the intense horse-trading to win support of MLAs, including yet another round of Operation Kamala with amounts ranging from Rs 35 to 45 crore per MLA, going by the publicly aired allegations, have not helped in resolving the crisis.
Yeddyurappa, Eshwarappa still 'confident'
Coming back to the original question, Yeddyurappa and state BJP president K S Eshwarappa as well as other state ministers and leaders have been claiming with all bravado that the Yeddyurappa regime will win the trust vote while Kumaraswamy as well as the dissident MLAs and Congress and JD(S) leaders have been declaring with equal confidence that they will not rest till the most corrupt BJP government was packed off lock-stock-barrel. However, there were clear indications that the ruling party was trying to win the vote of confidence by making use of the Speaker’s office to disqualify the defiant disgruntled dissident legislators and also 5 MLAs belonging to Congress and JD(S) for their alleged role and misbehaviour during the election of the present Speaker K G Bopaiah, and thereby bring the total strength of the House.
In a related and parallel development, the Speaker had issued show-cause notices to 19 MLAs, including 7 ministers and 5 independents, on why they should not be disqualified from their membership of the assembly for writing to the governor virtually expressing no-confidence in the chief minister, who is also the leader of the House. Though the 5 independents, cannot be served a notice, because they were not elected on BJP symbol, the ruling party contends that they had become associate members of BJP and were thereby bound by the party’s rules and norms. Meanwhile, the ruling party had dropped the disqualification proceedings against 2 members, Bellubbi and Narasimha Nayak, who had returned. There were indications that the ruling party was trying to lure ''friendly” MLAs from Congress and JD(S), with Channapatna JD(S) MLA, M C Ashwath, having already becoming the first prey.
Governor’s Role Crucial
Getting wind of the ruling party’s ''sinister designs” of altering the strength or complexion of the Assembly ahead of the crucial trust vote on October 11, Monday, governor Bhardhwarj, who himself is an eminent Supreme Court advocate and former Union Law minister, has shot off a no-nonsense terse message to the Speaker to ensure that the crucial session of the assembly for the trust vote is held strictly in accordance with the prescribed procedures and rules.
The governor has also directed the Speaker to ensure that the ''status quo ante” as of October 6 with regard to the respective strengths of all parties be maintained, which in other words asks the Speaker to ensure that none of the MLAs be disqualified and thereby prevented from entering the House and exercising their right to cast their votes. Having worked as a politician, a leading advocate and being a former union law minister, the governor is fully aware of the fact that the Speaker may defy his order and has, therefore, held that ''any result obtained by such vitiated proceedings (by disqualifying members) will not be acceptable.”
Threat of Disqualification
The Speaker has shot off a letter to the governor taking exception to the letter from Raj Bhavan and asserted that his office was functioning in accordance with the rules and prescribed procedures. He, however, has completed his ''questionable” inquiry for the disqualification of the 17 MLAs but has reserved his ruling. The possibility of the Speaker defying the governor’s directions and issuing orders for the disqualification of the dissident MLAs and preventing them from entering the House to participate in the trust vote cannot be ruled out. If that happens, and the ruling party manages to lure at least 4 to 6 MLAs from Congress and JD(S) or at least prevail upon them to abstain, Yeddyurappa might succeed in passing the floor test even if Congress and JD(S) insist on voting against the motion.
However, the moot question is: Whether the trust vote obtained through questionable or dubious means will pass muster with the governor and stand legal scrutiny? Given the fact that the governor had asked Yeddyurappa to prove his majority on the floor of the House by 5 pm on October 12 and the Assembly session has been summoned to meet on October 11, Monday, it is evident that the Speaker will have to inform the governor of the outcome of the proceedings.
Therefore, it is for the governor as the constitutional head of the government to accept or reject the outcome of such contrived proceedings. He might inform the Centre that the Yeddyurappa regime has lost the confidence of the House and therefore, recommend, imposition of President’s rule, possibly by keeping the assembly in suspended animation to help in sorting out the mess before the alternative government could be formed. The possibility of dissolution of the assembly, though possible, may not be adopted immediately.
Of course, there is an outside chance that Yeddyurappa might make a statement on the floor of the House and announce his resignation as he did in November 2007, when he was unable to pass the floor test after JD(S) refused to honour the promise on transfer of power, that resulted in imposition of President’s Rule and fresh elections in May 2008 or even the dissidents, who first hopped from Bangalore to Chennai and then to Cochin and later to Goa and again Chennai before returning to Bangalore by Monday morning, change their stance yet again and help Yeddyurappa to survive.
As things stand, the chances of Yeddyurappa continuing in power appear slim. Odds are clearly not in the ruling party’s favour. However, nothing can be taken for granted in politics and situations can change at any point of time.