Not April 1 but 2 for Trump’s Trade Tariff War!

  •   Sat, Mar 15 2025
  •   By Gabriel Vaz

March 15, 2025

April 1, the beginning of the financial year in India, UK and many other countries, is regarded and observed as All Fool’s Day. On this day, individuals and organisations play pranks, pulling legs or hair to the merriment of all while media pulls huge hoaxes.

            That must be the reason why US President Donald Trump’s much talked about Reciprocal Trade Tariff war against long-term enemy China, close ally Canada and neighbouring Mexico as well as “friend” Narendra Modi’s India comes into force from April 2, a day after April 1.

            One wonders whether Trump or his advisors, mainly Tesla Chief Elon Musk and de-facto head of Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), must have cautioned him to fix the start date for the Trade Tariff War to April 2 and not April 1 to ensure that the move is not dismissed lightly as an April Fool prank!

          Controversial, unconventional and unpredictable that he is, Trump did not hesitate to implement his pre-election promises on tough immigration controls, cutting down on US financial aid to international organisations, restructuring foreign relations besides imposing reciprocal trade tariffs, which pander to domestic sentiments of US populace.

          Trump has, in his recent address to the US Congress, reiterated his resolve of clamping reciprocal trade tariffs against all its trade partners. He knows he is and will be pilloried by his political enemies as well as the affected countries. To him, it doesn’t matter as it pleases his vocal supporters at home. What matters to him is “Make America Great Again (MAGA)”

          India’s Prime Minister Modi may have boasted of his close ties and friendship with “my friend Doland Trump,” but the newly elected President chose not to invite him for his January 20 inauguration. So was another friendly country, Canada, which Trump sought to be made 51st State of US that was derisively rejected by the then Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Though Chinese President Xi Jinping was invited to the Trump inaugural, the former didn’t attend and deputed his emissary. But that is history.

          Trump got down to acting on his promises by cracking down on illegal immigrants and launched a crackdown on illegal immigrants from several countries, including India. The Trump administration rounded up hoards of illegal immigrants and put them in shackles and packed them off in US military aircrafts. The crackdown on illegal immigrants continues.

India too received loads of US military jets bringing hundreds of illegal immigrants at the Amritsar Airport. The Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, an IFS officer turned politicians hand-picked by Modi, saw nothing wrong in the immigrants being sent home in shackles and defended it as being in accordance with established protocols. However, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum was caustic in voicing her country’s indignation and publicly said the Mexican people must be deported in the country’s aircrafts.

Next on Trump’s agenda, after the illegal immigrants, was the Trade Tariffs. When Modi visited US, a month after Trump was sworn in, and met the President in White House, the US President was unabashed in asking Modi to lower the country’s Tariffs on imports of US products or face reciprocal Tariffs.

Obviously, our Prime Minister felt it better to be reticent unlike the fracas created by beleaguered Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in White House unmindful of diplomatic niceties with Trump and his deputy, Vice President J D Vance. Like Modi, Zelenskyy went home to Kiev empty handed. If India wanted to placate the US administration and secure a better deal, Ukraine suffering from the three-year-long Russian invasion was keen on US brokering a peace-deal in exchange for signing a mineral agreement. After reaching home, Zelenskyy had to eat humble pie and is seeking a quicker reprieve.

Coming back to the US Trade Tariffs, China - the world’s largest economy after US, Mexico – second biggest economy in Latin America, and long-time ally Canada have also warned retaliatory tariffs. The world economy and the financial markets are in a tizzy facing a grim and uncertain future, at least in the near future.

The big question is will the US Trade Tariff Wars unleashed by the Trump Administration benefit the US economy and its people, who have reposed faith in him despite his own financial misadventures and even being impeached twice, once in Georgia and once federally, for “incitement of insurrection.”

Financial experts and economists concede that the Trade Tariff war may be beneficial in the short-term as it will protect companies since imports will become expensive and boost domestic production as well as consumption. However, it will have long-term inflationary effects as getting raw materials will be expensive. In addition, the retaliatory Trade Tariffs against US will definitely hurt global trade. Whether the Trump Trade Tariff war will help in boosting or rather creating US trade surplus is a moot question.

The countries hit by US Trade Tariffs may look to other countries, which will in turn affect American companies. The long-term prognosis, is therefore, not very good for the US and other countries as well. The job market will shrink and unemployment is bound to escalate, which will hurt Americans as well as the inflationary pressures.

Evidently, Trump is interested on the short-term and most certainly not on the long-term as he is in his second term as the 47th US President from January 20, 2025 to March 31, 2025, which means another four years in office. With the two-term limit for American Presidents, Trump has another four years to deliver on his promise of MAGA!

 

 

 
By Gabriel Vaz
Gabriel Vaz is a senior journalist.
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