November 30, 2025
My first connection with China was thanks to the Nanking Hotel next to my school. The owners lived within the school campus with their kith and kin. They always attracted my attention with the weird sounding language they spoke, weird to me, Mandarin to the World. What was more fascinating was the food items they would place for drying outside which was a direct view from my classroom. With the limited knowledge I possessed then, thanks to the absence of Whats app guided school of thought, I assumed it was the flesh of the one who had delivered the forbidden fruit to Eve. I cannot blame you, if you had similar thoughts, as this was in an era where your knowledge inputs were limited to books and for those who could afford, encyclopedias. Rest was left to our imagination and to the tales from those who would have travelled to China or had read about China. Man! What an era!!!
What also struck me on China then, was a piece of information shared by my teacher, Mr. John Pais. Mr. Pais would give us some extra bit of valuable knowledge, not part of our curriculum but just purely to share his knowledge, which I’m for sure, was thanks to him being a voracious reader. He definitely would have read the Newsweek or the Time magazine, which would then cost Rs 50 per edition. This was more of a capital expenditure in the mid 1980’s where the 1 Rupee Udayavani was our main source of knowledge! Mr. Pais had mentioned during one of his classes that China is going to be a superpower in the next 20 years. He made this statement maybe in the early 1990’s when Shanghai was more of a fisherman’s wharf than a mega city of today. I wish I had access to the knowledge of equities then, access to the Chinese stock market and also the risk appetite of Nick, The Greek Dandolos. Money was not a concern in our house, it was all stashed up in Fixed Deposits thanks to the wonderful interest rate offered by the Banks then, around 15% p.a.! Now you know why I have named my son, so.
China back then was investing heavily in something we call rare earth minerals (REMs). These are not rare as they sound, but the process of mining and processing rarely improves the air quality. The process of extracting REMs generates wide spread pollution. China put their own population at risk by exposing them to poor air quality thanks to their massive investments in infrastructure and industrialisation. Today, China has the World on the leash, as it controls 70% of rare earth mining and 90% of its processing globally. They reached here by doing the dirty work that the Western countries dumped on the emerging economies to earn carbon credits.
How can I not speak further of what is close to my mind, yes stock markets again. The Chinese stock markets in the early 1990’s consisted of the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange which collectively had 53 companies listed. Well, don’t ask me the difference between the exchanges, they both sound the same to me! By 2016, the list of the listed companies had risen to 2,800. The market capitalisation rose from practically nil to 4.1 trillion USD by 2007. In practical terms, Rs 100 invested in the Chinese markets in 1990 would turn to Rs 4,100 in 2007, roughly in a span of 17 years. Just for a moment, think what Rs 50 Lakhs invested in 1990 would turn out to be in 2007 in the same market!
China today has the coveted distinction of being the oldest civilisation known to mankind and also being the second largest economy in the modern times. It had built a wall which roughly spans 21,000 kms in the 7th Century BCE just to ward off the Mongols, which stands tall even today. It had built a canal spanning 1,700 kms in the 5th Century BCE which was the largest known then. Today it generates 2,500 GW of electricity, just to give an understanding India generates 450 GW. China has 450 USD billionaires when compared to 205 in India.
The reason I'm drawing a comparison of China with India is that we have similar inheritances. Population similar, pedigree and beginning of civilisations similar, decade of reforms undertaken similar, claiming ownership of Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh similar and so on. Well on the last part of the territorial disputes, it is not as simple as it sounds.
For centuries, India shared boundaries which was then called Tibet. Tibet was a peace-loving nation and hardly possessed any qualms on its boundaries. Tibetans gave up the use of arms after they embraced Buddhism, till then were the most fearful warriors, mightier than the Chinese. It was also an era of living with your neighbour without any compound walls and the real estate prices at very low levels. The ones who gave the impetus for the current dispute were none other than the famous coloniser, Great Britain. The then Foreign Secretary of the British government in 1914, Sir Henry McMahon called upon British India and Tibet to Shimla for a drink and probably over one or too many drew an 890 kms line separating modern day India & China on the Eastern side. Tibetans had no issues on this; they just wanted to live peacefully and relish their pork diet. The only known Buddhists who consume the non-vegetarian menu to the cessation. The current Dalai Lama once decided to quit meat and he himself could not. I’m so glad about this fact, as I’m not any Dalai Lama, but just a hungry Mangalorean, thrice a day and thirsty towards the evening.
What China had and what India needs today is conviction on execution, the political will without playing dirty politics and massive spending on Infrastructure. Just the private sector spending on this will not suffice, the Government needs to step in, with taking a gamble on the fiscal front. It needs to make setting up business easier, encourage entrepreneurship and not just create business models based on services, we need products that we can touch and feel. It needs to get the Manufacturing sector back to its former glory. India was the largest producer of steel until the Brits set up their factory at Surat. Emperor Jehangir must have approved this in 1613 and probably signed this at Shimla!
Good thing today is, we are on the right track. We have not deviated like our other neighbours, to the West, East & the Island in the South. We probably have not reached where China has established itself, because of the fact we are the largest democracy. Anybody can say anything. In China only the Government has a say. But with the current flavour of the season, India is destined to be a game changer. Sit tight, if you can enjoy the chaos, you will prevail.
On a personal front, I take this opportunity to thank all my teachers, professors who went the extra mile to share knowledge. What has made a difference is the inputs I received on what was beyond the prescribed curriculum. To my parents, for instilling the habit of reading. Oh boy! They were a bunch of voracious readers, one on the Newsweek and another one on Mills & Boons!