Daijiworld Media Network- New Delhi
New Delhi, May 23: In a significant update that could impact global markets and domestic fuel economics, ICICI Bank has revised its crude oil price forecast for 2025, predicting a downward trading bias for Brent crude within the range of USD 60 to USD 70 per barrel. In a more bearish scenario, prices could even dip to USD 55 per barrel, the bank’s latest research report revealed.
This marks a clear downward revision from its earlier estimate of USD 65–80 per barrel, with the bank now pegging the average crude oil price for 2025 at USD 65 per barrel, lower than the previous projection of USD 72.
The report attributes the bearish outlook to a looming global surplus, with an anticipated net supply surplus of 1 million barrels per day (mbpd) through 2025. This supply glut is driven by a mix of subdued global demand, increasing output from OPEC nations, and strong production growth in non-OPEC countries.
The signs of this surplus are already evident in the market, with March and April 2025 data showing a marked uptick in supply compared to the same period last year, when the oil market was facing a deficit.
• OPEC production levels
• China’s economic stimulus measures
• Geopolitical developments, particularly in Iran
Despite these uncertainties, ICICI Bank maintains that the overall momentum favours weaker prices unless disrupted by a major geopolitical event.
The report also underscores a historical trend: whenever global oil markets operate in a surplus, prices tend to slide. The current setup mirrors such conditions, increasing the likelihood of continued price pressure throughout the year.
India, one of the largest importers of crude oil, could benefit from the lower prices through reduced import bills and possibly stable or declining fuel prices at the retail level — provided currency exchange rates remain favourable.
For consumers and industries alike, the projected dip in crude prices may offer temporary relief, but analysts caution that the market remains volatile and reactive to sudden global shifts.
As 2025 unfolds, all eyes will be on OPEC’s production strategies, China’s consumption revival, and the ever-unpredictable geopolitical landscape, each holding the potential to reshape the trajectory of global crude prices.