Daijiworld Media Network – New Delhi

New Delhi, Feb 27: India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the third quarter of the current financial year (Q3 FY26) is likely to remain elevated at 8.3 per cent despite an adverse base effect, according to a report by Union Bank of India.

The report noted that GDP growth in Q3 FY26 was likely supported by demand momentum following the GST rate cut, even as it faced an unfavourable base effect. It stated that GDP data for Q3 FY26, due for release on February 27, likely clocked 8.3 per cent, sharply higher than 6.4 per cent recorded in Q3 FY25.

Gross Value Added (GVA) growth for Q3 FY26 is projected to improve to 8.0 per cent from 6.5 per cent in the same period last year, though it may be slightly lower than the 8.1 per cent recorded in Q2 FY26.

However, nominal GDP growth is expected to moderate further to 8.5 per cent, compared to 8.7 per cent in Q2 and 10.3 per cent in Q3 FY25. The report attributed the slowdown in nominal GDP growth to a decline in the GDP deflator amid easing inflationary pressures.

The bank clarified that its estimates are based on the old base year, given uncertainty surrounding the impact of the impending base year revision on GDP numbers.

The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) is set to release GDP data incorporating a revised base year of 2022–23. The revision is expected to offer greater clarity on growth trends and may lead to adjustments in annual estimates.

While the report maintained that the growth outlook for FY26 remains broadly resilient, with early indicators for FY27 suggesting continued momentum, it cautioned that projections would need reassessment once the revised GDP series is formally published.

The upcoming data release is likely to provide deeper insights into the trajectory of India’s economic expansion and the impact of statistical recalibration on overall assessment.